Post-crash white collar businesses?

Dear Fernando,

First, thank you for publishing your book. It was worth every penny. I will recommend it to select family and friends.

I seek your advice on the best post-crash, white collar businesses. I am a technical writer and trainer, specializing in software. I have a day job as a software training manager.

I have a side job writing technical books. I don't get rich from them, but they take the place of my wife's salary, now that she is a stay-at-home mom.

I am concerned that after the dollar has crashed (notice I am saying "when" and not "if"), that these types of books will not sell as well. My market is worldwide, but most of the sales come from the USA. Also, you can't really grow a business by being a solo author. To really grow, you need other people working for you. This rather lengthy introduction brings me to my question:

In your experience, after the crash in Argentina, were there any kinds of consulting or teaching services that businesses suddenly needed (and were willing to pay for), to help them survive the new economic conditions?

At this point, I'm really trying to decide between writing more books, and just letting the books go and switching to a consulting or training business. I'm thinking specifically of a company that would offer consulting and training in:

• Using Moodle for e-learning. This is the subject of two of my books.
• Dealing with information overload. How to be a more productive knowledge worker.
• Using open source software for small-to-medium size businesses. Office applications, human resources management, accounting, customer relationships, social media for sales and marketing.
  

Was there any demand for these kinds of business services and training in post-crash Argentina? I'm trying to imagine the kind of consulting or training that a company will need in these difficult times to stay in business. Something targeted specifically towards the message, "Times are tough and if you want to stay in business, we can help by teaching you how to_____." It's that blank line that I'm having trouble filling in.

Thank you again for your book, and your blog. I very much value your advice and hope that you can give me a little insight to help me plan for my family's future.

Regards,
William

Hi William. You seem to be on the right track. Please note I’m not into finances, all I can give you is my humble advice based on what I’ve seen.

As you probably read in my book, if I recommend for example, starting a daycare center or even a private school later on, its because I’ve seen it done successfully enough times that it makes me notice that.

You know who fails after an economic crisis/collapse? Those that freeze and fail to act, those that stay the same waiting for things to go back to be the way they were. To get through it you need to understand a few things.

First, the rules of engagement have changed. You can no longer expect the old ones to apply, you can’t expect people to react as they did, they way they used to spend money, they way people and companies didn’t research each product or service in detail. You need a good product/service AND good marketing.

And second, investigate and understand that new market. Discover the new niches.

As time goes by, I firmly believe that there’s a new, post crisis niche out there for every activity, every line of work you can think of.

Teachers for example, for years it has been a poorly paid job and still is. Yet a teacher that finds his way into a nicer, bilingual school will do better, and in some they can send their own kids for free or considerable discounts. It’s no longer just the salary, you save on school payments as well.

Hey, I used to work on telemarketing. English speaking employees got paid twice as much as those that did it in Spanish. Same job, twice the salary because you have more tools than the other guy.

While musicians do poorly, there’s a local kindergarten teacher here that has a nice voice and is good enough with a guitar, so she recorded CDs for babies and small children, made contacts with stores that sell baby clothes… so that these stores would play her music, and offer the CDs for sale as well. As far as I know she’s now got a big contract and is selling her music in every Spanish speaking country, including Spain.

Being able to sell world wide is an advantage, you can maybe aim for UK market, learn what’s getting done there, what programs they are using. Working from the USA and getting paid on Euros would be nice.

There’s more than enough people in Argentina that saved their business by doing partnerships with companies form abroad, selling services to US and Europe.

Again, if there’s an economic collapse, you’re already ½ way there William.

When unemployment became rampant, no one was selling anything, the first few months you could see the economy was totally frozen.

I kid you not people wouldn’t hire the neighborhood’s kid to paint a fence, no one wanted to spend a single buck.

After a few months when things calmed down after the initial shock, those getting laid off or getting their salaries cut to half, they all wanted to go independent.

Being already self employed, even though partially, already gives you an edge the guy that did the 9 to 5 thing all his life doesn’t have and is suddenly attempting to swim in unknown waters.

I have no knowledge of your line of work, but I’d orient it to that new guy, the guy that lost his job recently, or the one that is smelling the coffee, knowing that even though he still has a job he could be the next one.

There’s millions of unemployed right now. What do you think they are doing? Their trying to get busy! What programs would they need, which ones are sought after?

Again, not my thing but for example, classes, and courses that taught CAD and design programs suddenly became more popular. Many studios were doing jobs for abroad as I mentioned before, and they needed to hire workers. Who were they going to hire? Young kids who they could pay less of course. Those young adults (or unemployed older ones) needed some formation.

Another example. As prices for import goods goes up, local production gets more attention. That means more local machinery being build, and software for CNC machines and workers is required.

Your own question has the key to the answer: help them survive the new economic conditions.

Whatever it is you offer:

*It must be useful. Worth the little money people and companies now have. Before, they would through money at anything, just in case. Heck, people would even sign up for classes or courses and not even show up. Not any more.

*The potential benefits your consulting or teaching business offers must be clear to see and understand. Example. If you pick the newspaper and ½ of the design related jobs are asking for people that know 3D Studio, anyone with half a brain will get it that after he/she takes your course, they are ready for a line of work in demand.

Buying books or training, they can both be profitable for you. Personally, in your situation, I’m slightly inclined to exploiting the training opportunities if you enjoy that more than writing.

Writing for an emerging market can work ok, but I’d satisfy the need for training for the new employment challenges. Explore the aspects of the new jobs on demand, what kind of training they are requiring.

The unemployed guy reads you ad, an article or finds your website or reads about you at the local paper. Will he have better tools to compete on the job market if he receives your training? Will a struggling company become ready for the harder times thanks to your consulting?

Diversify, maximize resources, reach clients abroad/worldwide, minimize cost, cut unnescesary expenses, multitask your employees. These are all words that could fill in your blank.

I hope I at least gave you a few more things to think about and consider.

Take care.

FerFAL

Making money after the crisis

I’ve been asked this a couple times and guess it’s time to go through a few things again.
I’m not even going to talk much about jobs specifically.
People will ask “what jobs”, but that’s not really what they want to know. They want to know how to make money to get by.
Problem is making money and working isn’t always related. As a matter of fact most people that have a LOT of money work relatively little. Just like a lot of people that work VERY hard ALL day many times barely make enough money to survive.
You want me to tell you what jobs you’ll be more likely to find after a crisis? Easy.
Security.

I can open the newspaper on the couple pages with job adds, drop my finger with my eyes closed and I can bet good money my super divination powers will tell me what that add is about.

I can even use my prophetic powers and tell you many of the words you’ll find in the add.:)
Serious, it’s a mathematic fact, since 50% job offers are the same:
Male, 1,75 height minimum, school diploma, CLU (gun license card)

Private security job offers are BY FAR, the most common adds you’ll find in Argentina or in any country that’s gone through a crisis.

Second most popular add is for the ladies. Would read something like this:
Young lady, excellent presence. Age 18-25. No Prior experience required. Full body photo required.

What’s this about? They want hot looking women for promotions and events.
When unemployment is so high, it’s been proved that hot looking women advertising and giving away pamphlets works. Usually its too expensive. But with a crisis you’ll have girls that look like models begging for work. With high unemployment they can afford to audition lots of them.
Then, there’s the ever popular telemarketer..
These are jobs you can probably get during the recession.
Salary? Well, they’ll border slavery. And the private guard gig is as dangerous as swimming with starved crocodiles.

Hmmm.. how about changing the question then? :)
How do I “make” money?
Now we’re getting somewhere.
I have no secret that will make you rich. What I can tell you is what I’ve seen others do that worked well for them.
There are several fronts from where you can attack the problem.

a)Do what you love doing/ What you are good at.

This is always recommended but people hardly listen. Parents and grandparents usually recommend it, but why?
Because it works. Because when you do something passionately you usually do it well, thus greater chances of making money.

Go to college or community college, or learn some craft.
Doesn’t matter if you are a doctor, lawyer or carpenter. Some lines of work do better than others during recession, but if you are good at it your chances are good.

Contrary to what many believe, when there’s really high unemployment, more people go study and hit the books. Why? Because there’s no job and it’s better than staying home depressed.

Then again, in some cases just being very good at something simply isn’t enough. Sometimes even if you are good, even the best, the economic crisis will hit you and hit you hard.
Blacksmithing for example. Many survivalists thought blacksmithing for some reason would be in high demand.
Why are the best blacksmiths in the country doing so poorly then?
Want to know why?
Because I don’t “need” a fancy handmade blade, certainly not when money is tight. If I need a knife I can buy one in a store for a fraction f the money and it will still serve me well.
Besides, competition is fierce due to unemployment, even among blacksmiths. The more competitive, the more they have to lower the prices.
Today I can buy a handmade knife rather cheap.
The handful that refuse to see these and still sell knives at several hundred bucks hardly stay afloat with thanks to a few high end customers, most of them from abroad. As the crisis spreads all over I fear they’ll be doing even worse.

b)Satisfy an unsatisfied niche.
This is where many have made real fortunes THANKS to the depression. I’m talking about a lot of money in some cases.
The cases I’ll mention are ones that I know of and that have had lots of success precisely because they satisfy a new need created by the crisis.

These aren’t my “guesses” or “estimations”. These are real people doing very real money.

1)Transportation business.
Owning a bus line is very good business. There’s more poor, fuel is more expensive, thus, there’s more need for public transportation.
Doesn’t take a genius to figure out why bus companies are making nice money here these days.
“But FerFAL, I’m not Bill Gates, I can’t afford this BS your talking about”
Well, that happened to some people here too. But they didn’t cry a river because they didn’t have that kind of capital.
What they did was offer another alternative: Combies.
For 5 bucks, this guy takes a bunch of people in his minibus from suburbia to downtown to work, everyday.
Pay another 5 bucks and they drive you back to suburbia at the end of the day.
It’s a bit more expensive than the ordinary bus but it’s faster, you travel seated, doesn’t smell like urine, and has working AC, and it’s still ½ the price of the fuel you’d need to do that trip with your own car.
These guys started with one or two minibus, then added more, hired drivers. Then started selling the “brand” people with their own buses using the brand name and logistics, for a fair %, of course.
Now that’s smart. That’s learning to exploit the needs of the new market. Give the economy Nobel prize to the guys that came up with “Lomas Express” and “Adrogue Bus”.


2)Security.
I’ve said it a million times. Private security will be the greatest gig once crime goes up.
If you want, becoming a cop will be an alternative given that USA cops are well paid and there’s WILL be a growing demand for them.
But for those with the vision, a private security company can mean a lot of money.
Offering security to some high end neighborhood. You set a guy on a few strategic corners.
It’s obvious that if you are getting paid by say, 3 blocks, and you only set guards on those 3 places, criminals will start hunting out of the “guarded” territory. Soon the word gets around and they’ll want a guard of their own to keep an eye on things.
Be serious, be professional, and as crime goes up a private security company will be a good money maker for you.

3)Education.
As public education goes down and the O indoctrination gets worse, you’ll want better education for your kids. Mom can’t afford to home school any more, she has to work now. As salaries keep going down, due to cuts or indirectly due to inflation, both parents working becomes more and more common.
A respectable neighbor that parents trusts can set up a private school. One that’s not expensive but offers good atmosphere and a good education level.
I’ve seen it done a number of times, and know of several people that did very well with their schools or daycare centers. (mom has to work, remember?)
This would fall both in the “market need” and “things you love doing” category, since making a school and teaching has to be something you love doing. Do it just for the money and chances are you wont be good at it.

4)Lending money.
There’s no credit, so lending a little money (usually 1000 or 2000 tops) is a good deal for some people.
The greatest problem here is that you need some “muscle” that will collect those that want to get off the hook. So this can be a bit “grayish”. Either that or have a collector’s company that are real sharks. Anyway, lots of new places lending money, so I guess it’s good business.

5)Home business.
This is a bit more tricky and I probably know more failure stories than success ones.
Starting a business during a recession is “risky” to say the least.

Some things are almost certain failures.

A computer shop that just sells hardware and software and assembles PC and offers network and repair service has a poor success rate.
During a recession people buy very little, they try to save as much money as possible, usually take the time and trouble to learn how to assemble stuff themselves.
The one or two successful hardware dealers that I know of operate with HUGE volumes of merchandize, and offer VERY low prices and publicize on line.
These are businesses that required capital, lots of “know how”, import contacts, and certainly not for amateurs. Try opening the friendly computer shop on your own and more than likely you’ll fail.
Small shops in general do poorly during recessions.
Video rental stores for example, they’ve closed by the hundreds and few survive.
People have little money and prefer to download the movies themselves to safe a few bucks. Before they didn’t care, but when money gets tight they do.
Running your own business requires a deep knowledge of the niche and market if you want to have any chance of success.

For example, I know a guy that made a good business with clothes.
He knew the are well, knew that there was still some people with money, middle class, but a middle class less powerful than before.
They couldn’t afford the fancy brand name clothing they once did, but he expected to do well if he offered good clothing, nice fashionable designs, but at an affordable price. The store had to look a mixture of cozy and high end, and a designer was required for the store, a professional graphic designer for the advertisement displayed and labels used in the clothing. This was how the “Snowball” brand was created. He ended up opening over a dozen stores in the southern suburbs of Bs As.
Need a present for someone? Most of the time women do the buying, and most of the time they buy clothes. Snowball is affordable and people like it.

There are many, many other stories and niches that were exploited.

These are just a few business ideas to think about.
Think how you can make money in your region by satisfying the new niches being created by the economic crisis.


FerFAL

QandA

ive been thinking about this for a while, and maybe worrying more about being low-key is a smarter move than worrying about being armed to the teeth with smg's.
-Recon

Having weapons is important but going unnoticed is a terrific advantage.
Some people in survival think they’ll be allowed to dress up like a soldier once SHTF, problem is that version of SHTF may never come. And another more likely version probably will, one were you will not be allowed to walk ½ a block with a vest covered with mag pouches.

Rather the contrary, it will probably be a world where police are more trigger happy about weird looking people, were gun laws are more strict, and where ( even in spite of al these restrictions) crime reaches levels you’ve never seen before and you never felt the need to be armed so much in your entire life. That’s what happened to me at least.

You know how little things stick I your mind?
I remember driving my brother back from Ezeiza, through a couple roads, Camino de Cintura and Camino Negro, a good example of what our country has become.
By the time we got home my brother told me “ Dude, I need gun”
He said it in such a matter of fact way, I was surprised.

i read an article in a home fashion magazine today (decor?) about buenos aires, it had a lot of good to say and only mentioned the 2001 crash twice, stating it was good for tourists because everything was cheaper, and that it gave argentina a sense of authenticity in that they no longer imported a lot of the stuff they were accustomed to.

-Recon

Regarding fashion, Bs As is an important city in South America.
Women are trully beautiful, middle class people (and up) care a lot about their looks.
Specially for women, things are very competitive. The more good looking women, the more they feel they have to look their best.
That, and a sense of style the city still has in some parts, makes for an interesting combination.

Everything is cheaper but getting more expensive each day. It’s not that much of a bargain any more. It’s still good for tourists with USD and EU, but not as much as it used to.
Mostly good restaurants, wine and entertainment ( of all kinds, unfortunately)
But it depends on what you want. Anything electronic or a bit more elaborated or imported costs a lot of money.
A roll of M3 ductape ( small one, 10 yards ) costs 5 dollars. :p

It does give us a sense of authenticity, but it also puts us like 20 years behind.
Think about everything imported you are used to and imagine either going without that or having to pay ( at the very least) 3 to 5 times more for it, IF they even bother importing. Most things are so expensive, importers don’t find it profitable.

of course, its a FASHION magazine.. they did say though that the government there was planning on removing some 40,000 billboards as visual pollution.
-Recon

They promise a lot of things but believe me they never do 1/100 of what they promise.
They took a loan of 332 million dollars to clean the terribly polluted Riachuelo river.
Money is now gone, money loaned to the government and the taxpayers now owe it, and the river was never cleaned at all.

Wondering if you could enlighten us on employment trends in Argentina.


Here in the US the health care industry seems pretty solid.

Would really like to hear your thoughts on careers?

Thanks and please keep up the great work!
-Anonymous

Doctors still get paid well, make a lot of money in private practice, as well as dentist. Nurses aren’t that safe but they get by.

There’s job for accountants, business managers and the other more common professions, but the catch is, unemployment is very high. The official INDEC strategy is to just lie about it, they consider it better to lie aobut the numbers than to tell the truth .
We don’t know how high but at least 15% or so these days, according to non official agencies, those that arent in their pay roll.

What you want to do is not so much rely on a certain carrier, but be either very good at it so that you can win interviews, change jobs until you find a firm that pays well or seriously consider working freelance or starting your own business.

Only way to avoid getting exploited, working like crazy for very little money.

FerFAL

Small producers and their situation after the crisis

Yesterday there was a special report on a TV program called “GPS” - by a reporter called Rolando Graña, about child labor.

No wonder, there’s a lot of child labor here, working all day long, even as young as 4 year olds, in factories, selling on the streets and working the fields in the country as well.

The program focused on several small farms and orchards, about 3-5 hectares, where entire families (husband, wife and their children) worked all day growing vegetables.
The program focused on two main points.
1) That these families worked all day, but not only the parents like one would expect, but also the children from ages 4 and 5 to 14, from dusk to dawn. These kids of course didn’t go to school, nor did they have time to play, they truly worked all day, and you could see it to be true in their faces.
2) The irony about it, was that this particular case was going on in the “Children’s city”, a lot that was originally intended (and until before the crisis was quite popular) as a child amusement park, with games and parks for kids to play in, and families to spend the day there.

These folks worked all day just to barely feed themselves and buy the basics any person need to live (one of the guys mentioned clothes, shoes, maybe a toy for the kids once in a while).

The parents interviewed seemed to realize that a 5 year old child should not be working all day, but they explained that they simply had no other choice. They could either do that, or go collecting garbage in the city for paper to recycle like thousands of others do, and still have to do that with their kids along with them as well.

But how’s this possible? Given inflation and the prices you pay at the grocery store, that aren’t exactly cheap?

The middle man makes all the profit.
These people only get 15% to 20% (if lucky)of what the customer ends up paying for.
The middle men have a monopoly over the distribution and selling points each run.

Instead of thinking of thinking about “The little house on the Prairie” scenario, a middle ages Feudal Lord-Vassal relation ship is much more accurate to depicture what small producers are going through in our own in my country, after the 2001 crisis.

So, if you are a producer with a few acres of land (less than 300/400), and you don’t have a critical mass of production , just being an extremely hard worker isn’t enough, and what is happening today to these people may happen in America in the future.

Find some market, some niche, be an entrepreneur because if you do what pretty much everyone else already knows how to do, you’ll end up working so that the middle man makes the profit, while you barely survive.



Edited to add: Child labor in Argentina went up 600% , since the 2001 crisis.

FerFAL