Aquileo | Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Spread

Total

Spread

Total

8:00 PMJuly 9

$6M Vol

World Cup Winner

France

Argentina

Spain

England

casda858

Cristiano Ronaldo's last World Cup as Portugal champions; hoping Portugal will win.

cfvfsd99

yes

junipero

Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ola! 🩵

Ronaldo2win

Go all in on Portugal and thank me later.

junipero

Portugal is definitely quite undervalued here actually. Real strong team + Martinez magic. 🧐

nikitakud77

you think portugal will win this world cup? Spain is actually pretty strong with Lamine Yamal

casda858

Cristiano Ronaldo's last World Cup as Portugal champions; hoping Portugal will win.

cfvfsd99

yes

junipero

Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ola! 🩵

Ronaldo2win

Go all in on Portugal and thank me later.

junipero

Portugal is definitely quite undervalued here actually. Real strong team + Martinez magic. 🧐

nikitakud77

you think portugal will win this world cup? Spain is actually pretty strong with Lamine Yamal

casda858

Cristiano Ronaldo's last World Cup as Portugal champions; hoping Portugal will win.

cfvfsd99

yes

junipero

Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole, Ola! 🩵

Ronaldo2win

Go all in on Portugal and thank me later.

junipero

Portugal is definitely quite undervalued here actually. Real strong team + Martinez magic. 🧐

nikitakud77

you think portugal will win this world cup? Spain is actually pretty strong with Lamine Yamal

$4B Vol

Ends Jul 20, 2026·

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

July 31

August 31

December 31

Trump orders new round of strikes after calling Iranian leaders ‘scum’

WSJ

・

U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes in Latest Threat to Fragile Ceasefire

BBC

・

Strait of Hormuz: BBC sees seized ships and stranded tankers on visit to Iran

AP News

・

Is an Iran deal ‘over’ and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks

Reuters

・

Hormuz shipping risk raised to severe after tankers hit, reviving U.S.-Iran tensions

The Washington Post

・

Trump orders new round of strikes after calling Iranian leaders ‘scum’

WSJ

・

U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes in Latest Threat to Fragile Ceasefire

BBC

・

Strait of Hormuz: BBC sees seized ships and stranded tankers on visit to Iran

AP News

・

Is an Iran deal ‘over’ and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks

Reuters

・

Hormuz shipping risk raised to severe after tankers hit, reviving U.S.-Iran tensions

The Washington Post

・

Trump orders new round of strikes after calling Iranian leaders ‘scum’

WSJ

・

U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes in Latest Threat to Fragile Ceasefire

BBC

・

Strait of Hormuz: BBC sees seized ships and stranded tankers on visit to Iran

AP News

・

Is an Iran deal ‘over’ and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks

Reuters

・

Hormuz shipping risk raised to severe after tankers hit, reviving U.S.-Iran tensions

$1M Vol

Ends Dec 31, 2026·

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

August 18

August 31

September 30

December 31

Trump says there will either be a deal with Iran or US will 'finish the job'

WSJ

・

U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes in Latest Threat to Fragile Ceasefire

BBC

・

How Iran's new regime is very different to what came before

The New York Times

・

As U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Frays, Trump Faces a Muddled War and Unpalatable Options

AP News

・

Is an Iran deal ‘over’ and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks

Reuters

・

Trump says there will either be a deal with Iran or US will 'finish the job'

WSJ

・

U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes in Latest Threat to Fragile Ceasefire

BBC

・

How Iran's new regime is very different to what came before

The New York Times

・

As U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Frays, Trump Faces a Muddled War and Unpalatable Options

AP News

・

Is an Iran deal ‘over’ and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks

Reuters

・

Trump says there will either be a deal with Iran or US will 'finish the job'

WSJ

・

U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes in Latest Threat to Fragile Ceasefire

BBC

・

How Iran's new regime is very different to what came before

The New York Times

・

As U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Frays, Trump Faces a Muddled War and Unpalatable Options

AP News

・

Is an Iran deal ‘over’ and war back on? A timeline of the conflict and talks

$9M Vol

Ends Aug 31, 2026·

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Economy·Strait Of Hormuz

5% chance

Yes No

The New York Times

・

Ships Are Moving In and Out of the Persian Gulf, Easing Oil Prices

Reuters

・

Trump-Iran standoff threatens chronic Gulf oil instability

WSJ

・

A Sudden Glut of Oil Threatens to Weaken Iran’s Hand in Talks

Strait of Hormuz

U.S. and Iran launch fresh strikes following attacks on commercial ships

The New York Times

・

Ships Are Moving In and Out of the Persian Gulf, Easing Oil Prices

Reuters

・

Trump-Iran standoff threatens chronic Gulf oil instability

WSJ

・

A Sudden Glut of Oil Threatens to Weaken Iran’s Hand in Talks

Strait of Hormuz

U.S. and Iran launch fresh strikes following attacks on commercial ships

The New York Times

・

Ships Are Moving In and Out of the Persian Gulf, Easing Oil Prices

Reuters

・

Trump-Iran standoff threatens chronic Gulf oil instability

WSJ

・

A Sudden Glut of Oil Threatens to Weaken Iran’s Hand in Talks

Strait of Hormuz

U.S. and Iran launch fresh strikes following attacks on commercial ships

$14M Vol

Monthly

Fed Decision in July?

Economy·Fomc

25 bps decrease

No change

25 bps increase

50+ bps increase

Fed policymakers' inflation concerns grew at June meeting, minutes show

The New York Times

・

At Warsh’s First Fed Meeting, Some Officials Signaled Support for Raising Interest Rates

Bloomberg.com

・

Fed Minutes Show ‘a Few’ Officials Saw Case for June Hike

The Washington Post

・

Opinion | The other threat to Fed independence

AP News

・

Fed minutes: Officials deeply divided over future path of US inflation

Reuters

・

Fed policymakers' inflation concerns grew at June meeting, minutes show

The New York Times

・

At Warsh’s First Fed Meeting, Some Officials Signaled Support for Raising Interest Rates

Bloomberg.com

・

Fed Minutes Show ‘a Few’ Officials Saw Case for June Hike

The Washington Post

・

Opinion | The other threat to Fed independence

AP News

・

Fed minutes: Officials deeply divided over future path of US inflation

Reuters

・

Fed policymakers' inflation concerns grew at June meeting, minutes show

The New York Times

・

At Warsh’s First Fed Meeting, Some Officials Signaled Support for Raising Interest Rates

Bloomberg.com

・

Fed Minutes Show ‘a Few’ Officials Saw Case for June Hike

The Washington Post

・

Opinion | The other threat to Fed independence

AP News

・

Fed minutes: Officials deeply divided over future path of US inflation

$47M Vol

Monthly

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

Jannik Sinner

Alexander Zverev

Novak Djokovic

Arthur Fery

Ogamonday001

With novak Djokovic anything can happen, he has the age and the experience ,doing it at the big stage could be possible@27SiC @27Community #team2strongertogether

marcus.holt

Alexander Bublik? Yeah right

jiffyjoker66888

the spread is horrendous for this market

hyper-liquid-xyz

Djokovic is gonna make the semi just to lose to Sinner

firstrun

Sinner said he put all his money on himself, and if he loses this Wimbledon, he’ll be kinda homeless.

Rotating-Sound

🤣

Ogamonday001

With novak Djokovic anything can happen, he has the age and the experience ,doing it at the big stage could be possible@27SiC @27Community #team2strongertogether

marcus.holt

Alexander Bublik? Yeah right

jiffyjoker66888

the spread is horrendous for this market

hyper-liquid-xyz

Djokovic is gonna make the semi just to lose to Sinner

firstrun

Sinner said he put all his money on himself, and if he loses this Wimbledon, he’ll be kinda homeless.

Rotating-Sound

🤣

Ogamonday001

With novak Djokovic anything can happen, he has the age and the experience ,doing it at the big stage could be possible@27SiC @27Community #team2strongertogether

marcus.holt

Alexander Bublik? Yeah right

jiffyjoker66888

the spread is horrendous for this market

hyper-liquid-xyz

Djokovic is gonna make the semi just to lose to Sinner

firstrun

Sinner said he put all his money on himself, and if he loses this Wimbledon, he’ll be kinda homeless.

Rotating-Sound

🤣

$17M Vol

Ends Jul 12, 2026·

All markets

World Cup Winner

France

32%

Yes32%No68%

Argentina

20%

Yes20%No80%

France

32%

Yes32%No68%

Argentina

20%

Yes20%No80%

$4B Vol.

BTC Up or Down 5m

49%

Down

Live

World Cup
Odds & Predictions

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

Kylian Mbappe

42%

Yes42%No58%

Lionel Messi

39%

Yes39%No61%

Kylian Mbappe

42%

Yes42%No58%

Lionel Messi

39%

Yes39%No61%

$51M Vol.

Bilibili Gaming

38%

Hanwha Life Esports

63%

Bilibili

Hanwha Life

$1M Vol.

·LoL

TYLOO

43%

57%

TYLOO

$187K Vol.

·CS2

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

December 31

45%

Yes45%No55%

August 31

38%

Yes38%No62%

December 31

45%

Yes45%No55%

August 31

38%

Yes38%No62%

$1M Vol.

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

July 31

46%

Yes46%No54%

July 17

18%

Yes18%No82%

July 31

46%

Yes46%No54%

July 17

18%

Yes18%No82%

$5M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

37%

Yes37%No63%

September 30

20%

Yes20%No80%

December 31

37%

Yes37%No63%

September 30

20%

Yes20%No80%

$9M Vol.

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 15

25%

Yes25%No75%

July 31

18%

Yes18%No82%

August 15

25%

Yes25%No75%

July 31

18%

Yes18%No82%

$4M Vol.

Clacton by-election Winner

Nigel Farage

91%

Yes91%No9%

Count Binface

Yes7%No93%

Nigel Farage

91%

Yes91%No9%

Count Binface

Yes7%No93%

NEW

$923K Vol.

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?

Troy Jackson

52%

Yes52%No48%

Shenna Bellows

28%

Yes28%No72%

Troy Jackson

52%

Yes52%No48%

Shenna Bellows

28%

Yes28%No72%

$153K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Democrat

63%

Yes63%No37%

Republican

37%

Yes37%No63%

Democrat

63%

Yes63%No37%

Republican

37%

Yes37%No63%

$958K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe

27%

Yes27%No73%

Marine Le Pen

26%

Yes26%No74%

Édouard Philippe

27%

Yes27%No73%

Marine Le Pen

26%

Yes26%No74%

$110M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 2027

18%

Yes18%No82%

December 31, 2026

Yes9%No91%

June 30, 2027

18%

Yes18%No82%

December 31, 2026

Yes9%No91%

$17M Vol.

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

Jannik Sinner

65%

Yes65%No35%

Alexander Zverev

23%

Yes23%No77%

Jannik Sinner

65%

Yes65%No35%

Alexander Zverev

23%

Yes23%No77%

$17M Vol.

NBA: LeBron James Next Team

Cleveland Cavaliers

46%

Yes46%No54%

Miami Heat

22%

Yes22%No78%

Cleveland Cavaliers

46%

Yes46%No54%

Miami Heat

22%

Yes22%No78%

$15M Vol.

GPT-5.6 released by...?

July 24

100%

Yes100%No<1%

July 31

100%

Yes100%No<1%

July 24

100%

Yes100%No<1%

July 31

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$4M Vol.

Fed Decision in July?

No change

78%

Yes78%No22%

25 bps increase

21%

Yes21%No79%

No change

78%

Yes78%No22%

25 bps increase

21%

Yes21%No79%

$47M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

40%

Yes40%No60%

Marco Rubio

26%

Yes26%No74%

J.D. Vance

40%

Yes40%No60%

Marco Rubio

26%

Yes26%No74%

$671M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

chance

Yes

$14M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party

84%

Yes84%No16%

Republican Party

16%

Yes16%No84%

Democratic Party

84%

Yes84%No16%

Republican Party

16%

Yes16%No84%

$8M Vol.

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot

40%

Yes40%No60%

Benjamin Netanyahu

37%

Yes37%No63%

Gadi Eizenkot

40%

Yes40%No60%

Benjamin Netanyahu

37%

Yes37%No63%

$26M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

20%

Yes20%No80%

Marco Rubio

14%

Yes14%No86%

JD Vance

20%

Yes20%No80%

Marco Rubio

14%

Yes14%No86%

$652M Vol.

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

100%

chance

Yes

$70M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM

98%

Yes98%No2%

Putin - Russia President

Yes1%No99%

Starmer - UK PM

98%

Yes98%No2%

Putin - Russia President

Yes1%No99%

$58M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed

98%

Yes98%No2%

Belete Molla

Yes1%No99%

Abiy Ahmed

98%

Yes98%No2%

Belete Molla

Yes1%No99%

$154M Vol.

France

62%

Morocco

14%

France

DRAW

Morocco

$9M Vol.

·World Cup

GamerLegion

50%

Xtreme Gaming

50%

GamerLegion

Xtreme

$1M Vol.

·Dota 2

NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team

Cleveland Cavaliers

94%

Yes94%No6%

Oklahoma City Thunder

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

Cleveland Cavaliers

94%

Yes94%No6%

Oklahoma City Thunder

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

$1M Vol.

Spain

60%

Belgium

17%

Spain

DRAW

Belgium

$2M Vol.

·World Cup

Bitcoin above ___ on July 9?

52,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

54,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

52,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

54,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$1M Vol.

·Bitcoin

France vs. Morocco

France vs. Morocco

World Cup Winner

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

Bitcoin Up or Down

Bitcoin Up or Down

Fed Decision in July?

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

All markets

World Cup Winner

BTC Up or Down 5m

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

Clacton by-election Winner

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?

Maine Senate Election Winner

Next French Presidential Election

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

NBA: LeBron James Next Team

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Fed Decision in July?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team

Bitcoin above ___ on July 9?

Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Featured markets

All markets

World Cup Winner

BTC Up or Down 5m

World Cup: Golden Boot Winner

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

Clacton by-election Winner

Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?

Maine Senate Election Winner

Next French Presidential Election

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner

NBA: LeBron James Next Team

GPT-5.6 released by...?

Fed Decision in July?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team

Bitcoin above ___ on July 9?