Early-warning indicators such as increased variance, autocorrelation, and dimensional reduction are often interpreted as signs that complex systems in ecology, neuroscience, finance, or climate are approaching a tipping point at which a stable state loses stability or disappears. Here, the authors demonstrate, using brain dynamics during epileptic seizures as an example case, that the same statistical signatures can arise from pseudo-bifurcations in stochastic non-normal systems, showing that these widely used indicators are not uniquely diagnostic of tipping points.
- Virgile Troude
- Sandro Claudio Lera
- Didier Sornette