traders on prediction markets don’t think so, at least not for some time.
There’s just a four percent chance on Polymarket that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027.
On Kalshi, there’s just a 6.8 percent chance the US will acquire any new territory before 2027, though the odds are slightly better on a longer timeline. There’s a 22 percent chance the US will acquire a new territory before Trump’s term ends on January 20, 2029.
🤮 Why the actual fuck are journalists reporting on what “prediction markets” “think”? Between this and “which Europeans see as a violation of Greenland’s sovereignty” this article seems to casually legitimize trump’s claim
I think they have (unfortunately correctly) realized that the prediction markets can be bastardized into a quick and dirty public opinion poll without needing to do any of that dirty icky work like sending out questionaires or controlling statistical poll biases
Or they (or their owners) have an incentive to continually hype the prediction markets.
Worse, prediction markets measure what people with money (AKA the ruling class) think is going to happen. Given their higher access to information and people to more or less objectively process that information, that means you’d expect a decent correlation between prediction market predictions and reality.
Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. “Insider information” is kind of the point of markets like this, it’s a way to surface that information to the outside world.
Some also have advertising deals with those prediction markets, so them saying things about it is really just a quick ad break in some cases 🫠
Indeed, I am tired of “public” opinion (which is more wall-street-type-dudes’ opinion) being even considered on matters like this. I don’t care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening, the only opinion that matters is Greenland’s, as unless they democratically decide to join the US (no chance of that happening anytime soon), anything else is an invasion plain and simple, no matter if polymarket says that will make line go up
And the US famously never does invasions.
Nope, only liberations
I don’t care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening,
I mean you should, because if a critical mass of Americans supports it it’s gonna happen. Welcome to the business end of American imperialism.
The only reason to consider them (which is not what the media is doing) is because we’ve already confirmed Trump and likely countless other corrupt goons of his have been placing massive bets on events they know for a fact Trump is going to act on. Insider “gambling”.
It’s a refreshing break from them only reporting on what people are tweeting about an issue.
Journalists reporting on prediction markets aren’t journalists. They’re opinion writers. They need to stir up possible intigues in order to get those clicks for cash.
Because people with huge amounts of money also have inside information.
If the markets showed more favorably, it would be a legitimate indicator that there are more discussions of this happening amongst top brass. That there are no people nakedly staking profiteering bets on this is legitimate information worth comparing against the presidents words.
Like I understand polymarket and kalshi are gross things and they’re morally bankrupt, but surely you understand why a journalist would reference this very legitimate barometer of information…?
I’m vaguely sure the whole point of inside information in these cases is betting against the market, which results in better payouts. Or at least, making big bets on 50/50 things just before they happen, instead of sitting in a pile of nobodies with 90% chance and zero profit.
Sure, he can absolutely have it. IF he can point to Greenland on an unmarked map within 1 second.
And drawing it on with a Sharpie is not allowed.
How much time do you give him to find the map?
I’ll supply the map. As a recent incident shows, we can’t actually rely on them to provide maps that make sense.
“Bring me the Horizon”
He’s still talking about this? I legit thought he forgot about Greenland.
I recall reading that obsessions are a common symptom of dementia.
Funny, I haven’t heard him mention the reflecting pond lately.
I’m sure Lauder reminds him frequently.
PS don’t buy anything owned by Estee Lauder.
He probably found a Post-It mixed into a pile of documents
bitch ass also said magnets stop working in water.
oh, and he’s a pedophile
and a rapist
and a cannibal, allegedly
he lies more than any official since george washington
track what he does, not what he says. octogenarian nazi fuck
Lmao Trump says a lot of things
The amount he says during his word salads of speeches is amazing. I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say so many words without a tiny bit of relevance to the previous sentance, or the previous comma if typing it out. Truly if you want someone to speak without saying anything meaningful, he’s your guy.
Okay I’ll correct, I don’t think I’ve heard anyone not under some supervised care say so much irrelevant to what they were saying one sentence ago. Though I guess technically he is supervised but not in my intended meaning.
Donald Trump kill yourself
But here’s the catch, he never plans on leaving.
He also never plans on dying but it’s going to happen
He never plans on much of anything except maybe stealing elections.
Trump is turning the US into the fourth member of the hoodlum group of countries along with Russia, North Korea and Israel.
If Israel is a member of that club, then America has been too for a long time.
Always has been
Yeah, no… Not like it is right now. The bar is lower than it’s ever been.
The orange rapist is making shit up again.
Voice over: No it won’t. Never will.
Not happy with raping a few countries, he has to rape them all.
Trump says a lot of things…
Even though most of the things he says will never happen it’s still worth noting that this is where American discourse has reached. Their president can freely threaten to forcibly annex former allies simply because he wants their territory, and yet for some reason this isn’t an impeachable action. It’s not even a top headline.
It’s dangerous, yes, but why put any weight on anything he says? He lies all the time. If Trump says a boulder is about to fall on my head I wouldn’t believe it. Beyond that I don’t really care much about “American discourse” if it doesn’t involve getting rid of Trump.
Because it’s not just about him. It’s about the fact that nobody is reining him in. There were supposed to be all sorts of checks and balances in the American system of government but apparently they either don’t work at all or congress is okay with the president threatening to forcibly annex former allies because he wants their territory.
That tells us a lot about America and gives us plenty of things to think about long after Trump’s dead and buried.
Is he really planning on leaving though?
Eventually we all leave
I don’t know. Kim Il-Sung is still eternal president of North Korea.
But he never plans to leave office
But mother nature (or events) have other plans for him.
