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Aquileo | cake
Cake day: January 26th, 2026

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  • It’s clearly a case of winner take all and recently, the open weight model will be 80% as good for free and you can run it on open cloud services for 20% of the cost. The top ai companies will only be able to continue with market share dominance if they have cheap subsidized and unprofitable monthly plans, and their goal of having billions of dollars in profitable but incredibly expensive enterprise token use will be undercut by those free Chinese models. People using free model most of the time with the expensive paid model only used selectively for reviews isn’t enough money for the ai companies to win.

    But this only applies to the next 5 or 6 years, after that if Nvidia can keep going with big improvements then you can get a 100 to 1000x reduction in cost per token that will change that, but it’s hard to see farther out.