SpaceX stock drops 47% from its post-IPO high after a series of launch aborts, sending a chill through the broader tech and AI market ahead of August earnings.
It’s more a question what’ll happen to the other AI companies. Investors have now seen the first of the big ones tank. They’ll wonder if the same will happen with OpenAI, Antrophic and other AI adjacent like Microsoft, Nvidia. For a bunch of companies living of venture capital, that’s deadly.
After the merger with xAI, that’s about 22% of their business. The rest is AI. The brochure will tell you about reaching for the stars and living on Mars, but the main product is actually Grok.
It had nothing to do with profit and everything to do with the tens of billions in debt that was coming due. The merger then ipo was just to dump that bill on the public.
It’s even questionable to me if some of the space x investors will be able to get out above water… Some of those shares were sold at insanely high values then diluted. Fuck them all of course, but seems likely all this ipo achieves is another year or so of runway for the ponzi
I disagree. That part is actually a somewhat reasonable business (though partially held up by public funds through contracts). The issue isn’t what part is profitable. The issue is what part is getting all the investment and speculation. SpaceX was probably still overvalued for a space company, but they were doing something with measurable tangible value. The AI side is pure promise, and it’s only speculation, and the speculation is wild. It’s valued higher than something that’s actually making profit.
I get what you’re getting at, but I’d argue that we should look holistically at spacex. If their business model is launching a bazillion satellites and making a bazillion dollars we have to look at the entire launch complex as operating capital of starlink and spaceai. It all depends on starship launching a bazillion times a day so we should include development costs of starship as costs of starlink. The need for these businesses are necessary because the boom in private bookings of rocket launches that was anticipated with cheap launch services hasn’t materialized and so they have an airport and planes without passengers.
I ain’t no rocket economist but it seems “all the money” that starlink makes arent enough.
As much as I hate them, losing money is not the same as having negative value. Yeah, the current number is total bullshit, but they do have a value that’s greater than 0. Information control has a value, and that’s what they provide.
For the IPO I think only 7% of the value of the company was for their space related activities (what they are actually doing). 93% of the value was for the non existent AI activities.
First round of insider shareholders haven’t legally been allowed to even liquidate yet. This will be a bloodbath.
Gonna go grab my rubber ducky.
do we know when that’s gonna happen? i heard they used some loopholes to allow insider holders to sell early.
It’s more a question what’ll happen to the other AI companies. Investors have now seen the first of the big ones tank. They’ll wonder if the same will happen with OpenAI, Antrophic and other AI adjacent like Microsoft, Nvidia. For a bunch of companies living of venture capital, that’s deadly.
I thought SpaceX made space rockets?
After the merger with xAI, that’s about 22% of their business. The rest is AI. The brochure will tell you about reaching for the stars and living on Mars, but the main product is actually Grok.
Which just goes to show you how bullshit the profit margins are on space travel when they gotta turn the business into a chat bot to be “profitable”
I mean the only part of SpaceX making money is the space part, starlink
That’s the part making revenue, we’re unsure if it’s making a profit.
A part of the space part !
I read that if space x worked perfectly today, they have to do some 470 launches to just equalize Ariane because of the enormous cost spacex have had.
Hopefully we (the EU) will make reusable rockets for less…
It had nothing to do with profit and everything to do with the tens of billions in debt that was coming due. The merger then ipo was just to dump that bill on the public.
It’s even questionable to me if some of the space x investors will be able to get out above water… Some of those shares were sold at insanely high values then diluted. Fuck them all of course, but seems likely all this ipo achieves is another year or so of runway for the ponzi
I disagree. That part is actually a somewhat reasonable business (though partially held up by public funds through contracts). The issue isn’t what part is profitable. The issue is what part is getting all the investment and speculation. SpaceX was probably still overvalued for a space company, but they were doing something with measurable tangible value. The AI side is pure promise, and it’s only speculation, and the speculation is wild. It’s valued higher than something that’s actually making profit.
I get what you’re getting at, but I’d argue that we should look holistically at spacex. If their business model is launching a bazillion satellites and making a bazillion dollars we have to look at the entire launch complex as operating capital of starlink and spaceai. It all depends on starship launching a bazillion times a day so we should include development costs of starship as costs of starlink. The need for these businesses are necessary because the boom in private bookings of rocket launches that was anticipated with cheap launch services hasn’t materialized and so they have an airport and planes without passengers.
I ain’t no rocket economist but it seems “all the money” that starlink makes arent enough.
I was wondering why the stock price was so high. Makes a lot of sense now.
Funny way to put it. Since it really makes even less sense to be valued higher with twitter and grok added. Since they both lose money.
As much as I hate them, losing money is not the same as having negative value. Yeah, the current number is total bullshit, but they do have a value that’s greater than 0. Information control has a value, and that’s what they provide.
For the IPO I think only 7% of the value of the company was for their space related activities (what they are actually doing). 93% of the value was for the non existent AI activities.
SpaceX is now a public company valued for its AI potential, so what comes next?
some people say it’s august 8 then august 20
Does anyone say it on a platform that I’m willing to access?
don’t give me hope