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Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • Rossi, Barbara
  • Sekhposyan, Tatevik
  • Soupré, Mattheiu

Abstract

We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the first measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the different components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic fluctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik & Soupré, Mattheiu, 2016. "Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 11415, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan & Matthieu Soupre, 2016. "Understanding the sources of macroeconomic uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 1531, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2018.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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