The us military ran a massive wargame in 2002, and blue team got curbstomped by a red teamer who designed his strategy around what Iran would be able to do: shutting down shipping, avoiding sigint (using messengers on motorcycles to carry orders, for example), having a highly distributed and resilient command structure, using small speedboats to sneak in and damage American vessels who got too close.
The military said “boo not fair you’re supposed to let us blow you all up”.
It’s also a problem with wargames in general. Since no one is dieing and there’s no real stakes, it’s more of a way for officers to show off their plans. If someone wins, but does it by deviating from the plan it makes the officers look bad. When there’s actual lives on the line, winning starts looking better than how you won.
This is also a leadership problem.
The us military ran a massive wargame in 2002, and blue team got curbstomped by a red teamer who designed his strategy around what Iran would be able to do: shutting down shipping, avoiding sigint (using messengers on motorcycles to carry orders, for example), having a highly distributed and resilient command structure, using small speedboats to sneak in and damage American vessels who got too close.
The military said “boo not fair you’re supposed to let us blow you all up”.
Remarkably predictive all in all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
It’s also a problem with wargames in general. Since no one is dieing and there’s no real stakes, it’s more of a way for officers to show off their plans. If someone wins, but does it by deviating from the plan it makes the officers look bad. When there’s actual lives on the line, winning starts looking better than how you won.