Visual Essay

Charting the Economy

Fourth Quarter 2025

By Dorian L. Turner  |  April 14, 2026

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its most recent estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) and other key statistics from the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts, on April 9, 2026. This quarter's “Charting the Economy” takes a closer look at the economy's performance in October, November, and December as well as annual statistics for 2025, with details on how much people are spending and earning, industry production and profits, and how prices are changing.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent after increasing 4.4 percent in the third quarter.1
Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2025:Q4

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  • The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected increases in consumer spending and investment that were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP because they are embedded in other components of GDP, decreased.2
  • The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by an increase in services. The increase in services was led by health care (mainly outpatient services), financial services and insurance, and housing and utilities.
  • The increase in investment was led by intellectual property products (specifically research and development and software), equipment (notably information processing equipment), and private inventories (led by durable-goods manufacturing).
  • The decrease in government reflected a decrease in both nondefense and defense consumption expenditures.
  • The decrease in exports reflected a decrease in both services (led by charges for use of intellectual property) and goods (led by civilian aircraft, engines, and parts).
  • The decrease in imports reflected a decrease in goods, led by nondurable consumer goods and durable industrial supplies and materials.
Chart 3. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP, 2025:Q4

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  • In the advance estimate for the fourth quarter, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent.
  • In the second estimate, real GDP increased 0.7 percent, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment. Imports decreased less than previously estimated.
  • In the third estimate, real GDP increased 0.5 percent, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point from the second estimate, reflecting downward revisions to investment and consumer spending. Imports decreased less than previously estimated.
  • Each GDP estimate for a quarter incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data. For more details, refer to “GDP Revision Information” on the BEA website.
Chart 4. Real GDI: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.6 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 3.5 percent in the third quarter.
Chart 5. Real GDP: Contributions to Percent Change by Industry Group, 2025:Q4

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  • From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected an increase of 2.3 percent in real value added for private services-producing industries (led by wholesale trade and information) that was partly offset by decreases of 7.8 percent in government (mainly federal government) and 1.8 percent in private goods-producing industries (notably nondurable-goods manufacturing).
  • Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real GDP.
Chart 6. Real Gross Output by Industry: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • Real gross output by industry decreased 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, reflecting decreases of 3.2 percent for private goods-producing industries and 4.7 percent for government that were partly offset by an increase of 1.1 percent for private services-producing industries.
  • Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.3
Chart 7. Personal Income: Change From Preceding Period

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  • Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $219.1 billion in the fourth quarter.
  • Increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), personal current transfer receipts (mainly Medicare), and personal income receipts on assets (led by personal interest income) were the leading conributors.
  • Personal current taxes increased $55.2 billion, disposable personal income increased $163.9 billion, and personal outlays increased $254.7 billion.
  • The personal saving rate was 4.0 percent.
Chart 8. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
  • Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 2.3 percent, and prices for energy goods and services increased 9.7 percent.
  • Excluding food and energy, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7 percent.
Chart 9. Prices for PCE: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
  • Prices for services increased 3.3 percent, led by increases in financial services and insurance, health care, and housing and utilities (mainly housing).
  • Prices for goods increased 2.0 percent, led by increases in gasoline and other energy goods and in food and beverages.
  • Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index increased 2.7 percent.
Chart 10. Corporate Profits With IVA and CCadj: Change From Preceding Period

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  • Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and the capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) increased $246.9 billion in the fourth quarter.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $72.5 billion, profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $69.2 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits increased 105.2 billion.
Chart 11. Corporate Profits With IVA, Change From Preceding Period

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  • Measured in current dollars, industry profits (corporate profits by industry with IVA) increased $271.8 billion in the fourth quarter.
  • Domestic financial profits increased $77.7 billion, domestic nonfinancial profits increased $88.9 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits increased $105.2 billion.
Chart 12. Real GDP: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2025 after increasing 2.8 in 2024. The increase in real GDP in 2025 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment.
  • From an industry perspective in 2025, real value added for private services-producing industries increased 2.7 percent, private goods-producing industries increased 1.2 percent, and government increased less than 0.1 percent.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in 2025. The PCE price index increased 2.6 percent, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8 percent.
  • Real GDI increased 2.4 percent in 2025, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2024.
  • Profits from current production increased $275.7 billion in 2025, compared with an increase of $184.4 billion in 2024.
  • Current-dollar personal income increased 4.9 percent in 2025 after increasing 5.6 percent in 2024.
  1. Real estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this essay, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”
  3. Refer to “What is gross output by industry and how does it differ from gross domestic product (or value added) by industry?” for more information.