Back to showing more than 27 inches for our region. I'm looking at the shorter-term models to see what they say.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
The sanity on the GFS lasted one run...
Back to showing more than 27 inches for our region. I'm looking at the shorter-term models to see what they say.
Not much changed overnight...
The models (especially the GFS) stopped talking about 35-40 inches but other than that and a slight (but possibly concerning) creep of the rain/snow line northward towards the south and east suburbs, everything is pretty much on track for tomorrow.
1-2 feet of snow - around the immediate DC metro, I'd guess at least 15 up to 2 feet.
I'm swamped with stuff this morning but I'll be trying to get a look at the afternoon models and post some graphics.
If you haven't picked up bread already well (Found this on twitter. Too awesome.)
1-2 feet of snow - around the immediate DC metro, I'd guess at least 15 up to 2 feet.
I'm swamped with stuff this morning but I'll be trying to get a look at the afternoon models and post some graphics.
If you haven't picked up bread already well (Found this on twitter. Too awesome.)
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Haven't seen one of these...well, ever.
Blizzard Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-505-506- 202315- /O.NEW.KLWX.BZ.A.0001.160122T1700Z-160124T1100Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN- 1013 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND. A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW ON SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW. * TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW...STRONGEST WINDS...AND POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AND WILL BE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 20S MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... USE THIS ADVANCE NOTICE TO PLAN AHEAD! ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS...AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES. STOCK UP ON NECESSITIES. MAKE PLANS FOR ELDERLY FAMILY AND THOSE MOST AT RISK. PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF POWER OUTAGES DURING SNOWY AND COLD CONDITIONS. USE THIS TIME TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON YOU...YOUR FAMILY...AND YOUR COMMUNITY.
The bread. Go get it.
The model runs last night were good, if you like snow.
Nothing has changed about the reasoning behind the forecast and the differences in the models were mostly regarding precipitation onset, duration and any mixing issues to the south and east of the city.
Every model I reviewed last night predicts at least a foot. 15-20 inches seem a good bet at this point, a few models have totals near 2.5 feet.
It's going to snow.
So what could go wrong at this point?
I'm not sure, actually. Yesterday there was a southward trend to the modeled storm track but that stopped in last night's runs and now that the energy being sampled is actually in North America (as opposed to over the ocean), the models become more and more accurate.
The GFS is by far the most bullish on the snow situation. It stalls the low just off the coast for almost 12 hours and just pours down snow in our area. If this verifies - and it's not out of the question - we're talking 2-3 feet, not 1-2 feet.
Here's the "clown map" (it's what it's informally called) so you can see:
Still in the bullseye. A closer look shows that the GFS models around 3 feet of snow for the area. This pattern of "stall off the coast for 12 hours" has been consistent in the GFS but is not shown in the other models for quite the same duration. As a result, this is considered a bit of an "outlier" solution...it shouldn't be discounted but it maybe should be taken as a "worst-best-case scenario".
The CMC isn't a model I usually trust and until the last few runs it had one of the most northeast tracks of the models. And yet:
That's well over 2 feet for our area and much of the northwestern part of Virginia and almost all of Maryland.
Here's a map of precipitation potential for the storm. This is in liquid precipitation so remember that to get an approximate amount of snow from liquid measure you multiply by 10.
This model suggests 3-4 inches of liquid for the storm - again, the bullseye is in line with the other models and is right over us. If this verifies, well...you can do the math :)
There has been some talk of analogs to this storm and the one I've heard most is the Blizzard of '96. Every storm is different as are the ingredients that make up the conditions around the storms. Yet, it's worth showing the snowfall map from that storm:
There are some parallels to that situation and this could be a storm of similar (or greater) proportions.
Finally, this is the Euro from early this morning. The Euro had consistently been the most southern track which moved the highest snow totals to Central Virginia. Even in this run, we are hit hard:
The models are called "guidance" for a reason. Meteorologists are supposed to use them - and their skill - to make a prediction. When all of the models mostly agree it's a reason to sit up and take notice. When all of them - without exception - show double-digit snowfall potential for an area, it's time to get the bread.
Why are you still reading? Go get bread!
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
This morning's models are singing the same tune...
...maybe even more loudly than they were.
Still excellent agreement in the models overnight and everything seems to be on track for a major snowstorm in the DC area beginning Friday and possibly not ending until late on Saturday. The rain/snow issues seem to be working themselves out a bit - the concern here is a slight southward trend to the storm track which certainly keeps us all snow throughout the event but also starts to move the bullseye further and further to the south.
As of right now - some 72 hours before the start of the storm - we're right in the bullseye. If the GFS model from this morning verified, we'd be digging out for quite some time.
Here's the snowmap from this morning's GFS for reference:
It doesn't get to be more of a bullseye than that: 2+ feet of snow for the DC metro. If you like snow a lot, you'd love the models to have you in the bullseye the night before not 72 hours before so we'll see how this evolves.
Just wanted to note that the game is still on and with each hour that passes and each model run that confirms and intensifies the prediction, it's almost time to go get bread.
Stay tuned.
Still excellent agreement in the models overnight and everything seems to be on track for a major snowstorm in the DC area beginning Friday and possibly not ending until late on Saturday. The rain/snow issues seem to be working themselves out a bit - the concern here is a slight southward trend to the storm track which certainly keeps us all snow throughout the event but also starts to move the bullseye further and further to the south.
As of right now - some 72 hours before the start of the storm - we're right in the bullseye. If the GFS model from this morning verified, we'd be digging out for quite some time.
Here's the snowmap from this morning's GFS for reference:
It doesn't get to be more of a bullseye than that: 2+ feet of snow for the DC metro. If you like snow a lot, you'd love the models to have you in the bullseye the night before not 72 hours before so we'll see how this evolves.
Just wanted to note that the game is still on and with each hour that passes and each model run that confirms and intensifies the prediction, it's almost time to go get bread.
Stay tuned.
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