Plaid-Labour in Budget deal.

So its Plaid who did the deal with Labour over the  £15bn Welsh Assembly Budget.

The BBC reports that .....

The Labour-Plaid deal adds an extra £20m to the draft budget for next year to spend on apprenticeships for 16-24-year-olds.The same amount has been included in indicative plans for the following year and there will be an attempt to secure EU funding to boost the commitment.
Science parkThe two sides also agreed £10m of capital over two years for a science park involving Bangor and Aberystwyth universities.

BBC  8 November 2012 

Interestingly Gareth Hughes comments on his Blog

So the price of the deal is £25m a year over two years. £5m more than last year’s deal with the Liberal Democrats.
The £20m accord with the Liberal Democrats last year was described by Plaid as the “Lib Dems have sold their support very cheaply."
So the going rate in Welsh politics between a good deal and one that is cheap is £5m. So there you have it. The formula for agreeing budgets in Wales.

Of course Gareth being a Labour supporter doesn't tell us what he thinks an opposition should seek in any deal and we are not talking coalition here so any wish list from an opposition party is limited.

At some time the budget had to be passed and although Labour does not have a majority it is by far the largest Party and should be allowed to set the agenda though not complete control it.

Structure
Members	60
Political groups	Government      Labour (30) Opposition Parties      Conservative (14)      Plaid Cymru (11)      Liberal Democrat (5)

I'm not saying that a party that doesn't have a majority should be able to simply pass its draft budget, but there must be a limit to what the opposition can ask.

Indeed the problem is that the opposition simply use the annual draft budget  it to calls for more expenditure on Health and Education popular with the public politically. But these two departments  already take up the vast majority of the Assembly expenditure and how much can be taking from other sources in order that La Pasionaria can have a decent sound bite and her colleague Peter Black a chance to spin on his blog?

It may be that Plaid have sold their support cheaply but not I think worthlessly and the money is going to areas which are neglected.

Only a Plaid spin doctor would claim this a brilliant deal but it may be the best under the circumstances.

However before the oppositions attack the deal perhaps they can tel us where they drew the line in the sand with Labour and whether it it wasn't simply a call for more money for the NHS.

What are Plaid's Options?

I am beginning to wonder whether the Plaid Leadership  are secretly pleased with the Dafydd El amd Cynog Dafis row despite the obvious damage that it is initially doing to the party.

After all if you are going to place your emphasis on Independence then its best to get any potential critical opposition out of the way particularly if it comes from an older generation and you would like to give the impression that the torch has been passed on (or snatched)  but if it is a policy it is a dangerous one.

However it does show the problem Plaid has always have and how it should state its aims.

1. Take a Sinn.Fein Line and argue that it wants no part of the British state. Fight Westminster election but to refuse to take your seat. Plaid original stance when Lewis Valentine stood for Caernaforn n 1926'
2. Take a line that its only  goal is Independence, Fight al elections but remain aloof from other parties and political issues. 
3. Aim to be in overall control in the Assembly and use this to call a Independence referendum ( The current position in Scotland 
4. Aim to be the Largest party  in the assembly and concentrate on running the Assembly aiming to emulate the SNP and gaining the above .
5. Have Independence have your aim but aim to form coalitions as a Junior partner and concentrate on running the country hoping to archive option 4.
6. State although Independence is your aim its a long way off and therefore you are concentrating of achieving option 4 for the "benefit of Wales" (Which seems to be Cynog's stance}.
7. State you are willing to enter Coalition with Labour, The Green's .and possibly the Libdems but completely rule out the Tories.
8. State you have no intention of entering a coalition with any Party 
9. Abandon complete Independence and seek a Federal Britain
10. Abandon Independence for a Devo max Parliament 
11. Become largely a pressure group hoping to influence other parties to adopt one of  the above.

I suspect most Plaid voters would chose one of these options .

This is Plaids dilemma .

If you take option 3 as your aim which what seems to  Leanne's stance.Do you insist all members adopt this or do you take the Broad church approach and "Welcome Debate within the party ".?

The problem with the former is you look authoritarian and with the latter   Debate will be portrayed by your enemies as an internal row.

Plaid problem is that dissent will probably end if it increases it position dramatically in the opinion polls but with Labour enjoying the luxury of UK opposition it loks set to keep its current hegemony.

Labour will always betray us..

Those of you who remember the Peanuts Cartoon will recall that, time after time Charlie Brown, though he constantly had his doubts eventually succumbed to once again try and kick the football only for Lucy to remove it.


There is a comparison to the average Labour Voter in Wales.Time and time again .They head for the polling station with the knowledge that Labour have always let them down. Only to put their mark for the Labour Candidate.


Then in a very short time it becomes clear that Labour have taken the ball away and are betraying those who have trusted them.


I'm sure many of those who voted Labour in the last Local Government elections will feel betrayed this time next year when in response to Westminster Cuts they will ask "How deep "whilst at the same time claim to be fighting them.


But when the elections come along  again they will like Charlie Brown believe that this time they will get what they want .


They will still fall for assurances from Unison Leader Andy Richards that.


 “There is only one party for the working people of Wales, the party that the trade unions founded to give a voice to working people – the Labour Party. This is why it is called the Labour Party,” .


He aimed this at Leanne Wood's attempt to claim that Plaid also aimed to give a voice for working People and to form a progressive alliance.


We will see whether unlike Charlie Brown the Welsh electorate really have a choice from someone offering to allow them to achieve their dreams.


Leanne Wood may not be the answer to Andy (Lucy) Richards. She and Plaid may well let us down those who trusted them but isn't it time we realised the other option will always  betray us?

If I was you Kirsty. I'd look at Germany.

I must admit I raise my hat to La Pasionaria, in her political misdirection of the Lib Dems political woes with her speech to her party conference where she managed to grab some headlins with her claim
Lib Dems 'can learn Plaid's coalition lesson'. After all to concentrate on a rivals poor results in the Welsh Assembly Elections  draws attention  from the fact that under her leadership in Wales the Libdems

• Where reduced from 6 to 5 seats in a Assembly of 60
• So a huge fall in their vote especially in seats that they were running a close second.
• Saw 17 of their candidates lose tier deposits.

To be fair to her however it was hardly her fault , for she had grabbed the headlines with her attacks on the way the Assembly Government were running the NHS here and although there was an element of shroud waving she appeared to be the leading opposition member in the Assembly.

Like wise the Libdem also managed to gain some headlines on Education with which figuers that shows that the total spent on average per pupil in Wales is £604 less than the total spent per pupil on average in England. Though this has been masterfully shown to be a false argument by John Dixon in his Borthlas Blog. 

But event this use of the gift of attacking government on the NHS and Education.  Subjects that I doubt the public would never give a satisfied approval rating on. The Libdems in Wales suffered from reaction against their colleagues participation in a Tory  led coalition.

If  La Pasionaria is loking for lessons . Then I suggest she looks at the Libdems sister party in Germany the Free Democrats. (FDP)

In the national vote on September 27, 2009 the FDP increased its share of the vote by 4.8% to 14.6%, an all-time record so far. This percentage was enough to offset a decline in the CDU/CSU's vote compared to 2005, to create a CDU-FDP governing coalition in the Bundestag with a 53% majority of seats.

Since then however the FDP have had a drubing in a nuber of State Elections this year 

In Hamburg they did manane to gain 9 seats but

In Saxony-Anhalt they lost all their 7 seats

In Rhineland-Palaaden-Württembergtinate They lost all their 10 seats

In Baden-Württemberg election 2011 they lost 8 of their 15 seats .

In Bremen they lost al thier five seats

In the latest poll in Berlin they filled to win a seat.


In comparison The FDP partners the CDU/CSU have fared better and it is the junior partner that the voters appear to be deserting in droves

Though  its not something Labour should look at with relish.For the Opposition SPD have not been doing very well either .

The big winners in all these Elections have been the Greens and they now have ea seat in every Landtag and now lead tjhe administration in Baden-Württemberg. and it is of interest that Germany has not turned to right wing parties . In Berlin  the Pirate party a libertarian group concerned with civil rights  on the internet  for example won 15 seats.

Only in Scotland perhaps  so far has any Party appeared to have gained overwhelmingly from voters disillusionment with the Libdems in the Westminster coalition where the SNP seemed to have had almost total gain in these votes. 

Why didn't this happen in Wales? Well here La Pasionaria may be right in her analysis  but I very much doubt that knowledge of the problem facing her party will help her or the LibDems in the rest of the UKin the long run.

When Plaid met Gaddafi embarrassing but 35 years old.

It seems that the Western Mail  have dug up an old story of a Plaid Cymry Delegation travelling to Libya for funding Talks with Colonel Gaddafi..

Although the headlines look sensational you have to read the article to find that thee events took place in the 1970's .

In fact it was in 1976 seven years after Gaddafi had seized power and was first reported I believe in (the much missed magazine Rebecca). So congrats to the Western Mail researcher for digging in this up35 year old story up but no points for trying to present in as a current news Story..

I'm not going to defend Plaids action at the time because it was pretty indefensible and even in 1976 it was cleat that Gaddafi was a ruthless dictator whohould't have been touched with a Bargepole except to say that most Western Governments had a dubious relationship with the Libyan dictator.

At the time I thought it was an embarrassment  for the Party but since there was no further exposures of Plaid -Libya links it does seem to be a one off and I would have expected the Labour government of the day (or Thatcher's 3 years latter) for a chance to accuse Plaid to be in the pay of the Libyan dictator a major  issue  it if there was anything really serious in it.It could be rightly argues that those involved should come clean and the evasion of some of those involved does them no credit but lets face it its not a major scandal today.

I could be wrong ,Perhaps papers will appear in Tripoli that Plaid was awash with Libyan gold in the latter part of the 1970's but I doubt it.

One can expect Plaid opponents to seize on this and its no suprise that Subordinate Centre in thier uusall
manner copy the Western article in full and then add thier pithy comment. in this case

"Willa fuller (Sic) story ever emerge? Not if Plaid Cymu have anything to do with it."

To tell the truth I don't blame them for concentrating on a 35 year old scandal in Plaid rather than  the more up to date story in the Daily Telegraph  that The Liberal Democrats' biggest donor has become one of Britain's most wanted men after being convicted of stealing millions from a form a former football boss.

I shall be looking at the next Subordinate Central to catch up with current events and their calls of whether they should return the £2.5 million pounds they have received from a convicted felony

Unions are a disgrace (for promoting Labour)

Hat Tip today to Grangetown Jack  (Ian Titherington) for reporting that although Regional Plaid AM Bethan Jenkins turned up at the TUC rally in Swansea to support the striking workers. She was told that no political speakers would be allowed, only for Labour politicians to be allowed to speak later. .As Ian points points Betham Jenkins  has....

"a consistent record of speaking out on trade union issues, refused to cross the Assembly picket line along with all other Plaid AMs (and MPs in Westminster-shame on you Labour MPs) and was keen to show her party support for the striking workers. She was told that no political speakers would be allowed, only for Labour politicians to be allowed to speak later. This was in contrast to Cardiff and Newport, where Plaid AMs did speak (Labour didn't bother to turn up in Newport as their MPs were too busy crossing the Westminster picket line-on Miliband's orders)".

I sahare with Ian his frustration at the Union Leaders whose loyalty to  the Labour Party seems to override their loyalty to their members .

The Ban on Bethan  and the inclusion of a Labour speaker could be said to be worse because "None of the Unions taking industrial action yesterday were affiliated to the Labour Part"

In February  this year I took part in a demonstration organised by Unison against the draconian attack on the workforce of Rhondda Cynon Taf Council by the Labour Council .here.

The event was attended by members of numerous Parties and organisation,but in the ticket only rally in the Municipal afterwards, the only member of a political party that was allowed to speak to us or it was the then Labour's Candidate for the Pontypridd seat Mick Antoniw.W ho managed to address us on a protest on the attack on the work force of Labour controlled R.C.T. without once mentioning them. A remarkable feat and it was a generous audience who allowed him to do this.

In other words the Unions used the event to attack a Labour council for its appalling treatment of their workforce to promote the Labour candidate in what was then the forthcoming  May Assembly Election.
Why the Unions behave like this.

Well we must admit that the long term ties with Labour Party do exist , and many  members still see the mantra of Labour Good-Tories Bad. despite years of evidence that Labour in power has done little for the rights of Union members and (dare I say  I use the words) "The Working Class". All the evidence shows that even  if Labour had remained in power after the 2010 election , then they would have implemented similar changes to the Pension schemes of public sector workers and we would have seen a similar strike against a Labour Government and yet the Unions, would have behaved exactly the same way to other Parties that supported the striking workers and last May Union Office,s and their members contributions would have been used to back a part that betrays its own supporters,

But the main reason is that the majority of Trade Union leaders (except in the past some Communists )  have always  see this a career that will see them moving up in the echelons  of the Labour Party with tier eyes eventually on a safe leader seat   in the Commons or for some a comfortable retirement in the House of Lords.

I suppose some Plaid members would like to the see the transfer of  some Union support via the backing of  Plaid MP,AM and Candidates, together with major  contributions to that  party

But that would not change the problem because the Unions should not use their money to back any candidate who after all are there to represent their constituents.

Individual politicians should back the Unions because they believe in their cause not because they believe in their money and political parties should do so with policies being prepared to lose the endorsement of Unions when they fail to do so.

All the evidence is that the Links with the Labour Part benefits only that  Party and the silence of much of the Trade Union Movement in the 13 years of New Labour whose polices (and indeed contempt) for   workers rights were not to dissimilar to the Tories shows this. New Labour did virtually nothing to indo the Anti Union Laws of Margaret Thatcher  and any legislation that backed the rights of the workers came fro rullings feonm the European Union.

The millions of pounds the Unions  use to back the Labour Party its long failed attempt at influencing its policies should be used To increase it membership , Train shop stewards and other elected officials in negotiation skills and employment law and provide legal services to its members.

Sadly I  can't see anything changing we will still see ourselves marching behind banners to a rallying point to rallies where a young firebrand Labour politician (Neil Kinnock 11?) will tell us that only by voting in a Labour government will we get our "New Jerusalem" and who in a few years time a s a Labour Minister will be denouncing "Outmoded Union Practice" but we live in hope.

Laptops culled Badgers saved (For now.)

T

The new Assembly Government has distanced themselves from policies from the last Assembly that were associated with their former Plaid Cymru partners that It began when confirmed it will not pursue a policy of providing schoolchildren with free laptop

The Welsh Government, and Education Minister Leighton Andrews said he was not proposing to continue the project, launched in March 2010.

  This had been main plankpf  Plaid's campaign for the 2007 assembly education. Mr Andrews said the "Welsh Government supported a pilot project to explore the educational benefits of providing access to laptops through schools. It ended on March 31 and was being evaluated".
 

The second announcement has been that plans for a Badger cull in West Wales have been put on hold while a review is carried out.

The Labour-run Welsh Government says an independent panel of experts will examine the science involved.

The cull had been part of an attempt by the previous Labour-Plaid Cymru coalition government to combat bovine TB.

But Environment Minister John Griffiths said there would be no cull while the panel carried out its work.

Both these can well been seen as snub to the coalition partners and indication that there will be no one Wales 2 or at least not one one where Plaid could portray themselves as equal partner.

As far as Laptops are concerned I thought this was Plaid's most innovative ideas it clear to me that our children must have easy access to information technology and those whose parents can provide it will have an early advantage particularly in Secondary Education.

If Labour have good reasons for not pursing a project that will lessen the education gap between the children of poorer families then I hope they can produce them but if the scrapping of the project is too show two fingers to Plaid then shame on them..

In a similar vein the new moratorium and yet another revue on the proposed Badger Cull could well be for good reasons. It interesting then both John Griffiths who announced the revue and Elin Jines the former Plaid Minster who ordered the cull under the last Assembly are two of our more decent politicians.

But the vast majority of those AM voted against such a move in the last Assembly and it can't help to be noticed that John Griffiths (who also voted against a delay) is the AM or Newport East s far away fro Newport Pembrokeshire where a cull may have taken place and one can't help feeling the decision was not entirely his.

I understand the conflicting evidence for and against the cull but I can't see how ah further revue will shift  the argument either way.

So Labours plans may be to distance themselves from what in many quarters was an unpopular policy that been proposed by a Plaid Minister but as with Laptops their action should be do what is right.

Over at Jaxxland they point out that a joking remark by a Tory AM that that the move was a quite obviously a pre-coalition concession to the Welsh LibDems should not be taken to seriously by political pundits.

But unless Plaid are prepared to humiliate themselves by entering a Coalition with a party that has just ditched one of their main achievements as coalition partners and have become very coy about a major measure by a Plaid Minister. Where are Labour to look for support?

Mixed Night for Plaid : Bad one for all other Parties.

There was a mixed night for Plaid in the  Council two By-elections yesterday 16th June 2011.
This has been taken from the ALDC website .


On  Gwynedd Council  there was a gain from the LibDems
Gwynedd UA, Arllechwedd
PC 255 (56.0; +8.8)
LD  (20.4; -32.3)
Lab 72 (15.8; +15.8)
Con 35 (7.7; +7.7)
Majority 162
Turnout not known
PC gain from LD
Percentage change is since May 2008.


But in Conwy the Party failed to put up a candidate (Why?) and the seat went to an Independent  with only the Tories as a Party fighting the seat.
Conwy UA, Uwchaled
Ind 477 (94.1; +94.1)
Con 30 (5.9; +5.9)
[PC (0.0; -100.0)]
Majority 447
Turnout not known
Ind gain from PC
Percentage change is since May 2008.


Clearly, as always local condition apply and it would be foolish to extrapolate an all Wales l trend from such small numbers.but the the loss off what was a long term Libdem seet in the Arfon part of Gwynedd means their all ready small band there has grown smaller. It's a pity Llais Gwynedd didn't fight the seat because we can't judge the ammount of support for them, particularly as  the thorny topic of school closures have reappeared.


The poor result for the Tories in three  recent By-elections in Conwy despite the fact they hold both Parliamentary and Assembly seats probably means that AM Janet Finch-Saunders will probably not relinquish her council  seat in favour of the Assembly   and stand down when the full elections take place next next year.

 Next elections

• Carmarthenshire county council: Byelection on 23 June in Llanegwad division after the disqualification of Independent councillor Dilwyn Williams who has not attended any council meeting in six months. 

• Gwynedd county council: Vacancy in Glyder 21st July division after the death of Plaid Cymru councillor Dai Rees Jones
• Torfaen county borough council: Vacancy in Snatchwood division after the death of Independent councillor Tom Gould No date set

I shall try to keep those interested informed.


UpDate
Thanks to Plaid Wrecsam I have been alterted to a Btelection on  Wrexham Council Yesterday
The result was  


 Wrexham County Marchwiel


John Bell Conservative 172
John Pritchard Independent  302


In my defence this has not appeared on any other format or Blog so thanks again to Plaid Wrecsam for reporting it. 

 

Taking Stock

 So that was the election in Wales and the Parties  will be taking stock.


Labour.
With gain of 4 seats and tantalizingly close to overall control of the Assembly  reson to celebrate but must be disappointed not to take  aTory seats. 30 seats mean they could possibly govern without looking for partners but as Miserable Old Fart points out there is a problem with of who is going to be Presiding Officer or rather Llywedd but I can only see Dafydd El taking up this position if the Lab/Plaid coalition is renewed and I doubt that the latter has the appetite for that.So Labour face sacrificing one of their precious number and be reliant perhaps on the LibDems to see them through the next five years.

Conservatives.
Will be delighted to have replaced Plaid as the main opposition and there may have been some quite smiles when their leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. Will they go for a positive devolutionist  like David Melding  or will they look somewhere else. The problem is that none of their AM's have really entered the public mind and as the cuts start to impact in Wales they will not be able to avoid the inevitable backlash from the Welsh electorate.

Liberal Democrats.
Must be counting their luck to only  have lost 1 seat overhaul despite a hemorrhage of votes in parts of Wales. With only 1 constituency seat and only Ceredigion and Montgomery looking possible gains next time they will be looking on how to disassociate themselves from the almost toxic connection to the Con/Lib coalition in Westminster. From last nights news it looks that that La Pasionaria will  be willing to enter into some form of coalition with Labour; But she has very few cards to play However  you can be assured if she carries it off then she and her colleagues will be claiming major concessions in policy even if the rest of us can't see them.

Plaid,
Bad night The loss of  4 seats and some of their most talented AM's  will be a body blow. The position of the leader Ieauan Wyn Jones looks shaky but. Plaid problem is the Pri(n)ce over the water. Clearly Adam Price is the favorite to lead the Party but he is not elected anywhere and barring a By-election in a seat like Neath then he  it will be 5 years before he can lead the party in the Assembly. A caretaker leader would be possible but who?  Elin Jones perhaps but surely  the big beast amongst Plaid AM's is Dafydd Elis Thomas who if he's not going to be Llywedd then he would be unlikely to want to remain out of the limelight . Perhaps Plaid's answer would be to elect Adam as leader and present him as the leader in waiting whilst DET leads the Party in the Assembly.

Others.
 Both UKIP  and the Greens were hoping to pick up a seat  but fell short.The BNP did miserably and they have ceased to be a threat in Wales which at least all the other political parties can take some comfort..

CUI BONO?

 L. Cassius ille quem populus Romanus verissimum et sapientissimum iudicem putabat identidem in causis quaerere solebat 'cui bono' fuisset.

The famous Lucius Cassius, whom the Roman people used to regard as a very honest and wise judge, was in the habit of asking, time and again, 'To whose benefit?

 Marcus Tullius Cicero,

Cui bono (Who Benefits)  is a Latin adage that is used either to suggest a hidden motive or to indicate that the party responsible for something may not be who it appears at first to be. It seems that this question should be asked over the "Dirty Tricks" argument over the Internet leaflet that seems tp have first appeared on the excellent Blogmenai Though he was not responsible for it and only commented. He gives a full explanation on how he obtained this on a latter Blog Though if like me your Welsh is not up to this you may need google translate.

 

 This is what Chris Bryant MP was referring to when he used . Parliamentary protection to make a attack k on the Plaid leader,  Ieuan WynJones Claiming that the leaflet originated in his office. This as led to counter accusations from Plaid that it is Labour who playing dirty tricks and that they are trying to lump Plaid with the unpopular (In Wales anyway) Conlibdem coalition . So who are the culprits? Cui Bono Who Benefits?

Unlikely. to be  Plaid there is no sense in them being even remotely associated with the ConLibdem Coalition  and would they really  be promoting  people to vote Conservatives in Clwyd West?  a seat they have at least some sight on. And surely Plaid would not be too unhappy to see the Libdems reduced in the Assembly and reducing competition from disenchanted Labour supporters.

Similarly the Tories would surely not  be advocating voting Plaid in Conwy or Carmarthen West or Libdem in Maldwyn  and Brecon and Radnor?. seats they would love to win.

So the only Party who would seem to Benefit from such a tactic advocated in the online leaflet and the United Welsh website (which does not seem to exist anymore)here coupled with Labour and Plaid throwing accusations at each other would be the Libdems who will are desperate to avoid meltdown in Wales.

But of course they are the most decent and Honest party in Wales and to never descend to the Political tricks of other parties so it couldn't be them could it?.

Labour's Welsh Resurgence Continues.

 There were two by-elections in Wales this week  Labour gained a seat from Plaid in the Treherbet ward of Rhondda Cynon Taf.

Lab 883 (50.8; +9.7)
Plaid Cymru 855 (49.2; -9.7)
Majority 28
Turnout 40%
Lab gain from Plaid.
Percentage change is since May 2008.

Whilst Labour held a seat  in the Neath North ward of Neath Port Talbot.

Neath Port Talbot UA, Neath North
Thursday 14 October 2010 12:00
Lab 437 (57.2; -5.3)
Neath Port Talbot Independent Party 144 (18.8; -18.6)
Plaid Cymru 132 (17.3; +17.3)
LD Mathew McCarthy 51 (6.7; +6.7)
Majority 293
Turnout 24.08%
Lab hold
Percentage change is since May 2008

Information  gwydr.demon.com

Both these councils are Labour controlled and there it is often the case that voters use this opportunity to punish the ruling party and so this must be a disappointment for Plaid, though Treherbet has been a marginal council seat being regained by Plaid in the last council elections and local issues may have some influence on the result.

However the  the results reflect a growing swing to Labour in council by-elections in the UK and must be a worry for Plaid whom often find themselves vying for the same vote as Labour.

But the big losers so far are the Liberal Democrats who have an effective team in their excellent
Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors when it comes to fighting by elections and in the past have made great headway when it comes to these, but they appear to be losing votes  in council by-election and appear to be suffering from the backlash against the government more than the Tories and they seem unable to find candidates to fight by-elections in the same number the usually do. They seem to have only contested 3 of 11 Welsh By-elections since the General Election  (ALDC)

It is to early to see whether Plaid will suffer from the new rise in Labour popularity, clearly the election of a new leader as been a boost to the Party and it much to early  to predict any long term change. But as we approach the Assembly elections  Plaid must reengage withe the electorate in the Valleys in particular or they face a labour resurgence that will reestablish their total dominance of these areas.

The next By-elections include

•Swansea city council: By election on 21 October in Newton ward after the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Susan Waller. Term ends 2012. This may give some indication of the popularity of the Ruling group on the council.

•Carmarthenshire county council: By election on 4 November in Cenarth ward after the death of Independent councillor Haydn Jones. Term ends 2012. Again this might give some indication of popularity of the Ruling group on the council though Independents by their very nature do not suffer the same political backlash.

•Ceredigion county council: Vacancy in Ciliau Aeron ward after the disqualification of Plaid Cymru councillor Moelfryn Maskell, who was found by the Adjudication Panel of Wales to have misused his position in relation to planning applications. Term ends 2012. Tricky one for Plaid here for obvious reasons.

•Conwy county borough council: There is a byelection on 18 November in Eglwysbach ward after the resignation of Angharad Booth-Taylor of Plaid Cymru who is moving to Pembrokeshire. Marl ward has a vacancy after the resignation of Conservative councillor Linda Hurr. Both terms end in 2012. Again a tricky one for Plaid and as they lead the ruling group . Similarly could be an opportunity for to punish the Tories.

•Isle of Anglesey council: Byelection on 18 November in Rhosneigr ward after the resignation of 'Original Independent' councillor and former council leader Phil Fowlie, due to ill health (although he has since been disqualified from office). Term ends 2012.

Information from Indiigo Public affairs.

Diane Abbot finds Welsh Map. But its years out of date.

In article in yesterday's Western Mail David Williams reports Labour leadership contender Diane Abbott as describing how she takes inspiration from Welsh Labour and why she believes women in Wales will lose out in the coming cuts

I’ve always felt a great affinity with Wales. It has always been a place I’ve looked to as a home of the true “left” of the Labour Party. She is reported as saying.

Err Is this the same Diane Abbot who in August said,

“I have not spent a week and a half in Wales. I genuinely think the Scottish Labour party has always had a very fundamental role in British Labour politics. In a way the Scottish Labour movement is the keeper of the flame when it comes to socialism. I think whoever wins (in Scotland) deserves to win overall.”

Apparently according a online questionnaire . Diane Abbot is clearly the closest of the Labour Leadership contenders to my own viewpoint. However its a bit late I think for Diane to whoo Welsh Labour voters, but if she was honest it is not the Labour Party in Wales who are the inheritors of the “True Left” but a large number of Plaid Cymru members and supporters.

Not all of course, but even those within Plaid who bulk at the term socialism, I found often agreed with Party Policies which Dianne would argue was that of the true left.

But the Labour Party in Wales even before the advent of New Labour was hardly a progressive left wing party (and I think progressive is an important term here) and often only used socialist langage but always avoided put it in to practice.

I always found it it amusing that whilst a student at Coleg Harlech and later Abeystwyth University. Labour party members from England, often found themselves more in tune with Plaid students (as I was at the time) than Welsh Labour Students on many social policies

And this was often apparent in other political fields such as Anti-Apartheid and CND.

I still meet Labour members whose attitude to progressive ideals for example Women Rights, The Peace Movement, and Green Issues are close to “Old Toryism” and not even New Labour.

But it is the New Labour project that I believe is the problem here, Dianne record on opposing Blair's right wing vision was not great (Better than the other Candidates though) and I think Labours major problem is that there no true left winger of the stature of Tony Benn to rally to.

I don't think Diane is capable of that but if wishes to take up the mantle she will not find the answers in the ranks of Welsh Labour.

Kennedy leads dissent. Peter Black ignores it.

Former Lib Dem leader Charles Kennedy has spoken out against the proposed Libcon coalition s proposed cuts.

Mr Kennedy says “he is reluctant to become an irritant, sniping at the government from the sidelines”.

But he warns those making decisions about spending “not to throw the baby out with the bath water”.

It is interesting that both Peter Black and Subordinate centre have remained silent over this as they were quick to point up dissent at the Plaid conference.

Kennedy however may well be expressing the views of many Lib-Dems as they head to in Liverpool for their conference .

I suspect that one of the reasons they chose the City was they believed that they would be in control of the Metropolitan City Council, but alas they lost it to Labour last May.

And the the leader of the Lib Dems in Liverpool  and former council leader has said "he fears people will see no point in voting for the party after it formed the coalition government".

Oh dear. Here in Wales the Lib-Dems buoyed with a close results in Swansea West, Newport East, Merthyr .and Pontypridd would be claiming that they would take these seats in next years Assembly Elections.

Alas the pointers seem to indicate they will lose constituency seats including that of La Pasionaria and have to rely on the regional seats to keep they numbers as they already are.

Peter Black showed his astuteness when he declined to put his name forward for Swansea West. Even though a Lib-Dem victory there could well cost the Party his regional seat.

Even if they were to win the Election court case against Phil Woolas in The Oldham East and Saddleworth , and I hope they will .it looks like a particularly nasty case. It will only open an honest nest where they own dubious practices will be called into count and their portrayal of themselves as the honest Party will be brought to public scrutiny.

(Irish) Labour shames (Welsh) Labour.

I was looking at the Webpage of the Irish Labour Party this morning and discovered t they provided a translation service for other Languages (through Google translate) including Welsh.

I don’t know how good this translation is (perhaps Welsh Language Bloggers can help here). But it is a noble effort.

It’s not lost on me that Welsh Labour doesn’t have a button to Welsh Language version of they website.

Surely their Irish counterparts shame them on their Internationalism (and Plaid should also look at the way their  translation access button, works for other languages ) but it is really amazing that I can easily see a Welsh Language version on the Irish Labour Website whilst Welsh Labour ignores it.

Update
I have found the toolbar for the webpage translation at http://translate.google.com/translate_tools it seems to work. So my page can in theory be read in more than one language.

What’s the Opposite of a Pyrrhic Victory and was 2010 one for Plaid?

Not even the most optimistic Plaid supporter would claim that the result of 2010 General Election ,was anything but a bitter disappointment for the Party.


The failure to win any of the hoped for seats of Ynys Mon, Ceredigion Aberconwy or even Llanelli , meant that the Party seemed to have hit a brick wall when it comes to increasing thier number to Westminster.

I am not sure what the opposite of a Pyrrhic Victory is but it is possible that Plaid may this time next year be thinking that they had in fact been lucky to not have made thier hoped for gains.

I have a precedent for this argument.

In 1997 the only seat that Plaid could really hope to gain was Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. In a year when Tony Blair's New Labour won the General Election by landslide  and ended years of Toy government. The loss of the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, seat would have probably resulted great resentment towards Plaid by Labour members in Wales.

17,907 voted for Labour in the seat in 1997. Now if we take into account the Yes majority in the Assembly referendum  for Wales as a whole was 6721 we can see that the majority of 22,996 in Carmarthen was vital and although it was dramatic the fact that it was last to declare is irrelevant in this case.

Would all of those Labour voters who voted Yes had done so if they had lost the seat in this County. It is possible they would not have and this resentment may also have spilled over to large past of Wales.

So I am proposing that it is highly possible that Plaids failure to advance in the election of 1997 resulted in a Yes vote a few months later.

Now move forward to the 2010 election if Plaid had one just two Labour seats in Wales (Ynys Mon and Llanelli) then this would certainly put a strain on Plaid -Labour relations and possibly damaged the One Wales Agenda. Disunity in the Welsh Assembly government resulting in a No vote in 2011.

If there was a No vote then Plaid would in no doubt suffer in the  later May Assembly Elections.
However Plaid with a Yes vote behind could  easily make seat gains, and place themselves in a strong position not only for the One Wales Agenda to continue but to argue for a greater say in it.

And that’s my hypothesis I am sure some may reject it outright but  I think it should be considered .