Is the Commons at Mount Burdell on the rocks?

The North Bay Business Journal recently published an outlook for the Marin office market, in which it was noted that the Fireman's Fund HQ in Novato was on the market. If you recall, this is the site of Marin's largest development project - the Commons at Mount Burdell, which is the proposed redevelopment and expansion of the site as a mixed-use community.

The project was announced in 2008 by San Diego based American Assets, who shelled-out $312 million to acquire the 65-acre site in 2007 in a joint venture (JV) with the GE Pension Trust. According to the proponents:

The completed project would be named the Commons at Mount Burdell and would upgrade the 710,000 square feet of existing facilities adding nearly 800,000 square feet of uses including residential, a first-class hotel, retail, health club, daycare, restaurant, meeting venues and a variety of other community amenities. In addition to implementing Platinum LEED standards, the projects' water, waste and energy systems are being designed to achieve 100% carbon neutrality; one of the first such efforts for a mixed-use commercial project in the United States  

Utilizing the latest approach to master plan development, The Commons at Mount Burdell would actually expand the current amount of open and green space on site by nearly 15% through the removal of nearly 15 acres of surface asphalt parking and the construction of parking structures. 

Given the economic problems of the last few years, it is not surprising that this project has not yet moved forward, but I assumed it had just been placed on the back burner for a while.

However, looking through some SEC filings, it appears that events have conspired to make the future of the project more uncertain. American Assets Inc. decided in 2010 to become a publicly listed real estate investment trust (REIT). In short, this involved an IPO and the transfer of their properties into a new entity - American Assets Trust.  However, the terms of the lease allow Fireman's Fund the first right of purchase on any transfer or sale of the property. In anticipation of the REIT formation, the property was offered to Fireman's Fund in 2010. The offer was not accepted, but Fireman's Fund also didn't waive their right of first offer on any future transfer. In addition, GE Pension Fund, which is the majority (75%) shareholder in the JV, did not consent to allow its interest to be included in the REIT formation. These problems meant that American Assets could not transfer the property into the REIT, and it also caused them to recognize a $38.5 million impairment on the property's value in 2010.

So it looks like the original entity - American Assets Inc. - remains as the owner of the 25% interest in the JV, and will continue to manage the property. But given the owners' new focus on the REIT, it seems reasonable to assume that they would look to offload the site at the earliest opportunity.

It will be interesting to see whether Fireman's Fund decide to take the opportunity to purchase their corporate HQ, and if not, whether a new owner can be found who will continue to pursue the Commons development as proposed, or is it on the rocks? One complicating factor is the uncertainty over the Novato North SMART transit station, which would serve the site, but which was identified recently as one of the potential stations to be cut, as part of SMART's budget shortfall.

*Update: The NBBJ has copied also picked up the story.

NBBJ Real Estate Awards

I see it's time to send in nominations for the Business Journal's "fifth annual 2010 Top Projects Awards" (fifth... 2010...?).

There aren't a lot of Marin contenders (it's been a quiet year). A leading contender in the mixed use category will be the Tamalpais Commons project in Mill Valley (picture below). This higher-density development is the first of several planned for Miller Avenue and is still controversial with many locals who fear increased levels of traffic. I'm not sure whether the residential component is a success, but the retail is a great addition to this part of Miller, adding three new businesses: Dish restaurant, Yolo fro-yo and ToyHouse.

Another Marin mixed-use development that might receive an award is the Millworks project, which houses the new Whole Foods in downtown Novato. The City has been criticized for allowing such a large project. And in terms of design it's just OK. On balance I think it's a worthwhile project, bringing business, jobs and residents to the downtown area.

Northgate Mall probably doesn't qualify, as it opened last year. They did a great job of getting most of the space leased in the midst of the great recession, but I'm not a fan of the design: the inside of the place looks too much like a warehouse. And there are too many small design fails, such as putting the H&M entry right behind this structural column.

Meanwhile, over the street at Northgate One, the new Walgreen is my official entry for "Ugly Building Turning Its Back On The Street" category.

Buy your tickets for the gala awards ceremony now, folks.

Whole Foods opens in Novato

The biggest retail event of the year so far happened last Thursday with the opening of the new Whole Foods in downtown Novato. The retailer timed the opening of the 39,000 square foot store to coincide with Earth Day, and got plenty of coverage in the local news.

I dropped by this weekend to check out the store. From the outside, the scale of the Millworks building is quite impressive. The development, which includes condo/apartments above and adjacent to the Whole Foods, is a lot larger than other buildings in the downtown area, most of which are single level.
The store was quite busy, with more people looking than were buying. Most popular was the bakery and the deli counter. Parking in the Millworks parking garage was easy, with access directly into the store on the main level or from the upper mezzanine.
The design is industrial, with exposed pipes and wires everywhere, and big signs and graphics within the store, including a container sitting atop the dry bulk goods corner.

Overall, a great addition for northern Marin shoppers; not so great for other grocers in the area...

Grocery Stores Gone Wild

This might sound strange, but the most dynamic sector of Marin's economy has to be grocery retailing. The transformation in this sector over the last few years has been remarkable and is set to continue this year with more new stores opening and - very likely - more old stores closing.

Ten years ago, the grocery scene in Marin was dominated by mid market regional chains such as Albertsons and Bell Markets that operated 15-20,000 sq.ft stores. By 2006 Albertsons had closed or sold all their stores. Also in 2006 DeLano's took over five Marin Bell Market stores, although the ones in downtown Tiburon and Novato have since closed.

Over the last couple of years we've seen new stores from Trader Joe's in Novato and Larkspur, a large new Safeway at Hamilton Marketplace, the discount Grocery Outlet opened in Novato and Paradise Foods took over the old Safeway store at Pacheco Plaza.

And the action is set to continue in 2010. First out of the blocks this year is Mi Pueblo, which opened March 20 in the old Circuit City store in San Rafael's Canal neighborhood. Of all the new supermarket openings in Marin, this one seems to make the most sense, providing a large format grocery store targeted precisely at the local Hispanic market and serving an area that didn't already have such a store.

But grocery retailing will get really wild in the next few months with the opening of two new Whole Foods stores. The first will be a 40,000 sf store in the new Millworks development in downtown Novato, which will open on April 22nd. This will be followed early June by the new Mill Valley store, which will occupy the 23,000 sf ex-Albertsons space at the Alto Center.

The Whole Foods in Novato will no doubt make life tough for other grocers in the local area, in particular those competing at the higher price points, such as Paradise Foods and Harvest Market. The smaller WF store in Southern Marin will pull customers from Tiburon and Corte Madera as well as Mill Valley, so any sales impact will be spread among several existing stores. Whole Foods will also provide some serious competition for the various farmers markets around the county, some of which are already under strain.

If any other grocers want to try their luck in Marin there are several vacant stores available, including those at Fair Anselm in Fairfax, the ex-Delano's in downtown Tiburon and The Square Novato, and Marinwood Plaza. Unfortunately, as the current crop of new markets get established, this list is more likely to get longer than shorter.

Tough times at the Farmers' Market

An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal today about the problems facing some farmers' markets in the Bay Area. The growth of farmers' markets has been one of the great success stories of the last few years, prompted largely by increasing public awareness about and concern for the quality and origination of their food.

Marin currently has 12 farmers' markets (a list is here), with the biggest being the Sunday market at the Civic Center, and other new markets are planned, such as the one proposed for Marinwood Plaza. But as the WSJ reports, there are not enough customers to support all the markets, so income for the farmers is falling to a level where it is not worth their while setting up their stalls. The problems caused by an over-saturation of farmers' markets in Marin were highlighted last week in an op-ed piece in the Marin IJ by the Marin Agricultural Institute, which organizes farmers markets in Marin.

The WSJ reveals that there is (or was) good money to made at farmers markets:

Amber Balakian, a fourth-generation farmer from Balakian Farms in Reedley, about 20 miles south of Fresno, has experienced the deteriorating economics firsthand. Her family sets up shop at the San Francisco Ferry Building farmers' market on Saturdays. While they used to ring up sales of $10,000 per trip, there are so many other markets drawing visitors away that "now we make half that" at the Ferry Building market, she says.

This past year, Ms. Balakian, 24 years old, drove more than 200 miles each week to a one-year-old market held in a Whole Foods parking lot in Mill Valley. The market started at 9 a.m. each Friday, so Ms. Balakian often arrived the night before and spent the night in a hotel before selling the tomatoes, peaches and carrots her family grows on its 75-acre farm. On a good day, she sold about $3,000.

But Ms. Balakian recently tried selling at farmers markets in Pleasanton and Los Altos, where "we didn't make enough to cover our expenses," she says. She adds that she sold "maybe $500" in produce at the Los Altos market.

Let's hope that we keep supporting our local farmers' markets. But as organic and local produce catches on with mainstream supermarkets, and additional permanent organic markets open (such as the new Whole Foods in Mill Valley and Novato), we may see fewer farmers' markets operating in Marin in the future.

New leases signed, and others refused

It looks like fans of Peets Coffee will miss out on having a local outlet in Sausalito after the City voted 3-2 to refuse the zoning change required to locate a store on Bridgeway in the town. Despite being a Bay Area operation, Peets is considered "formula retail" because of the number of outlets it has; and chain retailers are banned from the waterside part of downtown Sausalito.

It's good to see local retailers expanding to new outlets in Marin. New leases have been taken in Novato for the Rustic Bakery at 1407 Grant Avenue and Stefano's Pizzeria at the Nave Shopping Center. The Rustic Bakery will be opening their second Marin location (the original bakery & cafe is on Magnolia Avenue, north of Larkspur), while Stefano's will be opening their third store, adding to their existing outlets in Mill Valley and Corte Madera.

Another new eatery expanding in the Novato area is Boca Pizzeria and Wine Bar, which has signed a lease at the renovated Pacheco Plaza. It's an interesting location choice by the owners of Boca Steak and Seafood, who must not be worried about opening a competing restaurant just around the corner from their existing eatery on Ignacio Boulevard.

In Mill Valley, crafts fans can look forward to February 1st, which is when Once Around will (finally) open their doors on Miller Avenue.

Marin retail news update

Mill Valley residents can cast their vote to help select a design consultant for the Miller Avenue Streetscape Plan. All fourteen proposals are on the City of MV website, and those with time on their hands can use the evaluation tool to select their favorite consultant.

Over in Corte Madera, The Village will be getting a not-so-glamorous new neighbor when The Home Consignment Center takes over the Lay-Z-Boy space at 801 Tamalpais Avenue.

Nearby, the Old Town Square will be losing one of it's most popular stores when Tamalpais Paint and Color moves to a location in East Corte Madera in January. The current building was offered for sale last year, at which point the paint store was "in the middle of their 10-year lease". Any local residents care to suggest what they would like to see in that space?

Good news for leopard-print throw rug fans: Z Gallerie (Town Center Corte Madera) has emerged from bankruptcy.

A new proposal was unveiled for the Hannah Ranch site in Novato. The development proposal includes a 116-room hotel and a small amount of office, retail and restaurant space, and was greeted with much more enthusiasm than the previous attempt to build a Home Depot at the site.

Friday news update

Walgreens is poised to take over the space vacated by Pier 1 Imports at Northgate One in Terra Linda. The move is likely to be less controversial than the proposed new Walgreens in Novato, which will be built on the Mission Lodge Hotel site at Diablo Avenue and Redwood Blvd.

A big disappointment to the well-dressed man around Mill Valley is the closure of Wilkes Bashford.

Social media is finally catching on with Marin's shopping malls. The Town Center at Corte Madera now has a Twitter page, as does The Village. Also on Twitter are Andy's Market and Northgate, which also has a Facebook page.

But the big news event of the week was the arrival of Kohl's department store, which opened at Northgate this Wednesday. A full report will be coming soon.

999 Grant is back on the market.

News from the Novato Advance that Catlin properties has given up on it's proposed mixed use development at 999 Grant Avenue in Novato and has put the planned project up for sale.

Occupying a prime site at the intersection of Grant Ave and Redwood Blvd, the developers failed to attract any interest for the 10,000 sq.ft of retail space, which was initially offered at $4 per sq.ft - which is almost twice the going rate for retail space in the area.

Weekly news roundup

In San Rafael there is a public hearing tonight (9-21) at 8.00pm where the City Council will be discussing the proposed Mi Pueblo grocery store at 330 Bellam Blvd.

If you want to have your say on the revised plans for the relocation of Corbett's ACE Hardware store to 800 Magnolia in Larkspur, there's a Planning Commission hearing September 22nd.

In Novato, All Star party rentals has relocated from Grant Avenue to Olive Avenue. Meanwhile, eleven stores on Grant Avenue have signed up for Novato Redevelopment Agency's Grant Avenue Facade Development Program. The program provides up to half the cost of improvements to the building's exterior.

The renovation of Northgate continues on schedule, with the grand opening of Kohl's planned for Sept 30th. In case you missed it, the latest announcement of new stores to take space in the mall includes a 2-level, 28,000 sq.ft Forever 21, and new-to-Marin fashion stores Hot Topic (think Twilight T-shirts) and North Bay shoe retailer Sole Desire.

Novato DeLano's to close

The Novato Grocery War claimed it's first victim yesterday, with news of the closure of DeLano's at Novato Square. DeLano's was always the weakest of the incumbent grocers in Novato, so no major surprise that the store was getting hit by the slowdown in consumer spending and the new competition from the Hamilton Safeway , Trader Joe's at The Village and Grocery Outlet.

Despite the DeLano's exit, there are more battles ahead for Novato's markets, with Whole Foods and Paradise Foods scheduled to open within the next few months. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of these stores postponing their opening given the current state of the economy, and in particular a lot of negative press about the viability and impact of the Whole Foods / Millworks development, which has switched from condos to apartments after only 2 of the 124 units were sold.

But if the stores open as planned, the underlying problem will remain - that with these new stores, Novato will have too much grocery space for its population, and the grocery war will surely claim another victim.

Weekly news update

The Novato Advance opens up a debate around development planning for the North Redwood Boulevard corridor, including the usual shock and outrage that it will ruin the small town feel of Novato, and landowners manouvering to sell plots for development, in this case it's the Dairymans Feedmill, which would make a lovely mall.

There are several new retailers and restaurants opening in Tiburon, including Bistro 35, which will replace the Sweden House. May Madison kitchen store on Main Street, and on Ark Row there's Elixir, Prima Palate and Pure Elegance.

For gadget fans, Brookstone will be taking over the space vacated by Shabby Chic at the Village at Corte Madera. It's second time around for Brookstone, after it's previous store was dumped last year to make way for Lacoste. (btw, has anyone out there ever seen a shopper in Lacoste?)

What to do with Marin's vacant car lots?

In the wake of GM's bankruptcy, the Marin IJ reports on the last of the remaining Detroit automaker dealerships in the county: Novato Chevrolet and Novato Ford. Sales at the Chevvy dealer are down 40%, but the owner is hopeful that they'll be able to stay in business. Sales at the Ford dealer are flat, indicating they've picked up some business from San Rafael Ford, which closed last year. In addition to San Rafael Ford, San Rafael Chevrolet closed in February this year, and the John Irish Chrysler dealer closed in 2007.

With the future outlook for auto sales looking bleak, what other uses might we see coming in to take over the vacant sites? Retail Traffic identifies a few options:

Approximately 25 percent to 30 percent of the dealership sites about to hit the market will likely be taken over by other car brands, estimates James Mitchell, director of the national automotive group with Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Services, an Encino, Calif.-based real estate brokerage firm. The rest of the sites, however, face an uncertain future. In the past, car dealerships were considered attractive acquisitions by developers of strip centers, small office buildings and hotels as many boast good frontage, are in high traffic locations on major thoroughfares and sit on parcels that have already been graded and require minimal site work.

And this CNBC pundit sees opportunity in the land vacated by car dealers.

But considering the rise in vacancies in commercial real estate over the last year, there are plenty of alternative sites available in Marin County, including office space vacated by Autodesk, and big box retail vacated by Circuit City, plus planned development sites that have now been abandoned. Developers are unlikely to go to the effort of permitting and developing a car dealer site when other easier alternatives are available.

So do not expect to see any new concepts opening anytime soon on the abandoned car lots. But smart operators with an eye on the long term might snatch up sites with good visibility and access for conversion to retail development when the good times come back.

News in brief

Some retail-related news stories kicking around this week:

Marin County retail sales in the fourth quarter of 2008 were 14.1% lower than the same quarter in 2007. Novato's sales were down 7.1%. (That's taxable retail sales) Source: the Quarterly Sales Tax Update prepared for the City of Novato.

The City of San Rafael is to complete the Environmental Impact Report for the proposed Target superstore, even though the project is on hold. Source: Marin IJ

The Tavern at Lark Creek will open next week (June 3rd), replacing the Lark Creek Inn. According to the blurb, the Tavern will offer "a seasonally driven menu that highlights elevated crowd favorites. Main courses will be under $15". Sounds great - unless you're the nearest competing restaurant in the under$15 category, which just happens to be the Yankee Clipper, also owned by the Lark Creek Group...

The Marin IJ sent a reporter to the community meeting for the North Redwood Boulevard Corridor and found a surprising degree of consensus: Yes to a new hotel (because it will create tax revenue); Yes to narrowing Redwood Boulevard; Yes to large format retailers; but No to the proposed Walgreens.

Northgate is leading the race to adopt social media. The mall now has a Facebook page to go with it's Twitter account. Unfortunately the mall is still under serious renovation, so to make up for the absence of stores, it is posting some delightful photos of piles of construction rubble.

Downtown Novato Community Workshop

If you have an interest in the future shape of downtown Novato, make sure you go along to the Community Workshop tomorrow (May 27) to review the North Redwood Boulevard (NRB)Planning Study.

The NRB corridor encompasses the majority of the downtown area, from Grant Street northwards as far as Atherton Avenue. The area currently has a mix of land uses, including residential, automotive, retail and industrial buildings, and some vacant and unused lots. In March the City of Novato released an Options Study (large file) that discusses the constraints and opportunities for development in the area. One of the key items on the agenda for tomorrow will be how to promote new retail/commercial development in the area without compromising the viability of existing downtown businesses along Grant Avenue. It will also be interesting to hear views on the impact of the decision not to position a SMART railroad station in the downtown area.

For me, the biggest opportunity to revitalize downtown Novato is to develop more medium/high density housing. Housing creates activity and vitality and supports the development of retail and commercial businesses. It needs excellent planning, to overcome the conflicts with existing non-residential uses, and specific issues in the area, such as freeway noise and flood zones. And it really needs great transit. But with the SMART budget already $150m in deficit, the chances of getting that downtown station back on the agenda are looking slim.

*UPDATE

The City of Novato has put up some alternative plans for development of the corridor on its website here.

New Petaluma center may impact Novato retail

A report prepared for the City of Petaluma predicts that the proposed East Washington Place shopping center may cause local residents to shop closer to home rather than at nearby centers in Novato and Santa Rosa.

According to the Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis conducted by Bay Area Economics, The Petaluma area is currently in short supply of general merchandise and other stores, which means that almost 50% of retail sales in these categories are "leaking" out of the Petaluma to adjacent cities.

That may change after the opening of East Washington Place, which is slated to include 362,000 square feet of retail space, including a 138,000 sq.ft Target. Total retail sales at the center in its first year are estimated at $120 million, of which $68 million is projected to be money that petaluma area residents would otherwise have spent at stores outside the Petaluma area. Watch out Vintage Oaks.

A number of major retail developments have been proposed for Petaluma in recent years following a 2004 report that highlighted that nearly $200 million of retail spending by Petaluma residents was leaking to stores outside of Petaluma.

According to the North Bay Business Journal, another large center is also planned for Petaluma. The 315,000 sq.ft Deer Creek Village would be anchored by a Lowes home improvement store. This may prove to be a regional attraction, drawing shoppers from the Novato area and elsewhere.

Paradise in Pacheco

Good news week continues with the announcement that Paradise Foods will open it's second Marin store at Pacheco Plaza later this year. Paradise, aka "Marin's most extraordinary market", has a strong following at it's existing store in Corte Madera, which opened in 2001, where the gourmet selection includes a large range of prepared meals, pre-cooked in the store's kitchen.

According to the Marin IJ, Pacheco Plaza owner John Kieckhefer chose Paradise Foods over other potential tenants because customers wanted a gourmet grocer. Said Paradise Foods' Mel Gilmour:

"We had looked at other sites a while ago, then decided we weren't going to expand," Mel Gilmour said. "But when that one became available we felt like it was a good location for us. It's a market we could do well in. We see it as a good fit with the whole place being redeveloped and fixed up."

So is this an inspired move by Paradise Foods, opening their second store in an established center, far enough from their existing store not to compete, but in a region where they already have some knowledge of the market and where they have a good reputation?

Or is it a risky adventure, choosing to expand at a time when most retailers are cutting back their plans for new stores, and going head to head with a new full-range Safeway store and with the prospect of a new Whole Foods opening in downtown Novato?

The huge risk that I see is in the customer demographics. Gourmet markets like Paradise Foods, Mollie Stones, and Woodlands require affluent consumers, and there aren't as many of these in Northern Marin. Average incomes in Novato were $82,000 in 1999, compared to $112,000 in Corte Madera and $200,000 in Tiburon.

Affluent consumers do exist in Novato (2,077 households in Novato had incomes above $150,000 in 1999, compared with just 1,438 households in Tiburon), so there is potential demand for an up-market grocer. But can Paradise Foods get those Novato customers to drive past Whole Foods to visit their store in Ignacio? That, I think, will be difficult.

*update: news release

2007 Retail Sales data for the four largest cities

Here is another more detailed cut of the 2007 Retail Sales data that was released at the beginning on this month. The charts show the share of total Marin County sales that is captured by each of the four largest cities for four types of retail store.



For Apparel stores, Corte Madera is the place to go. More than a third of the County's sales at apparel stores take place here. The Village at Corte Madera captures almost all of these sales and it's share has probably strengthened since then. Since 2007 several new apparel stores have opened at The Village, including Abercrombie & Fitch, True Religion, Martin & Osa, Puma and Michael Stars.

General Merchandise is also strong at Corte Madera (think Nordstrom & Macys), with San Rafael (Northgate department stores) also getting a quarter of total county sales. The winner however is Novato, with the big boxes at Vintage Oaks (Costco, Target) helping the city take a third of county sales.

Sales at Eating and Drinking places is by contrast widely distributed across the county. Almost half of sales in these outlets occur outside the big four cities. Marinites are lucky to have many options in this category, with multiple eateries available in towns such as Tiburon, Sausalito, San Anselmo and Larkspur.

When it comes to Furnishings & Appliances, San Rafael takes the prize, capturing almost 50% of Marin County sales. Big boxes along 101 and Bellam, and smaller furniture and homewares outlets along Fourth Street, help make San Rafael the destination of choice for these purchases.

Top Retail Cities in Marin

Continuing our look at the retail sales tax data for Marin County from the California Board of Equalization (great name by the way). The table below shows total sales at retail outlets by city for the years 2006-07. So what is it telling us?

• San Rafael captures the largest slice of retail sales, with $1.3 billion or 38% of sales in Marin in 2007. San Rafael extends over quite a large area, which includes the downtown area, Northgate Mall, the big box retail along 101, Montecito Plaza and Home Depot.
• Novato is the second largest city, with 18% of the total, or $595 million. Most of this is drawn through Vintage Oaks.
• Corte Madera, with sales of $450 million, or 14% of the total, takes third place.
• The city with the greatest increase in sales was San Anselmo, with growth of $9.9 million, or 14% between 2006 and 2007. I don't recall any major retail changes taking place, so I wonder if the change reflects the impact of the floods on New Years Day 2006, which took out many downtown businesses for several weeks.
• Mill Valley also had a good 2007, up $6.9 million or 3.7% in 2007, possibly as a result of new store openings at Strawberry Village.
• Corte Madera recorded the greatest fall in sales over the period, down $4.2 million or 0.9% in 2007. This may reflect refurbishment work at the Town Center (Barnes & Noble) and The Village, which went through a program of renovations in 2007.

The BoE data also provides details of sales by retailer category. Unfortunately, the Board is in the process of changing how it classifies businesses, so we can't do a meaningfull comparison with previous years. I'll publish some charts with this data later this week.

Pacheco Plaza renovations continue as hunt for anchor gets close

According to the Marin IJ, the owners of Pacheco Plaza are close to announcing the new anchor tenant of their refurbished Ignacio shopping center, and if the reports are true, it looks like it's going to be "one of the best upscale markets in the Bay Area".

But which grocer will it be? Woodland Market? Andronicos? Mollie Stones? Or maybe the Boardwalk Market that is scheduled to lose its Tiburon lease in 2 years? A few other potential candidates not already in Marin are Draegers, Bristol Farms, Napa's Oakville Grocery perhaps?

There are plenty of candidates but also plenty of hurdles to get over before that lease is signed. The biggest Safeway in the county has recently opened half a mile away at Hamilton, and the county's biggest Whole Foods is under construction in Novato. Oh, and we're also in the middle of the biggest drop in consumer spending in living memory.

But let's hope a deal gets done and the owner's investment in upgrading the Plaza pays off.