2000 Draft Revisited

We all (OK, I) like to talk about how silly it is for the NFL pundits to grade the draft hours, or even minutes after teams have made their selections. We all (really, all of us!) know that you can't give a team an A- or a C+ or an F on its draft until several years have passed and those rookies have turned into All-Pros or unemployed free agents. Unfortunately, nobody ever really keeps track of what the draftniks of the world have had to say and hold them accountable for their predictions of draft success.

Yeah, I'm gonna go there.

Here is Peter King's draft report card from the 2000 NFL Draft. After 10 years, I think we can get a pretty good idea of how these teams actually did in the draft. To evaluate the draft, I'll be using Pro-Football-Reference's Approximate Value (AV) system to sum up the total value of a team's draft picks. AV is a decent measure of overall value of a player, whether he's a quarterback, offensive lineman, safety, tight end, whatever. It's not perfect, and, for purposes of tracking the draft, it doesn't account for players who leave a team via trade or free agency, but it's a reasonable way to measure draft success, and, since the draft was 10 years ago, most players taken in it have played the bulk -- if not all -- of their careers, giving us a good measuring point to determine their overall success.

Here's the draft list, sorted by AV, with Peter King's placement listed first and the team's top pick, as determined by AV:

King	Team	TotalAV	Top Player	AV
14	NY Jets	280	John Abraham	68
6	Green Bay	257	Chad Clifton	61
23	Chicago	235	Brian Urlacher	97
11	San Francisco	212	Julian Peterson	64
7	Pittsburgh	199	Plaxico Burress	66
19	Denver	196	Deltha O'Neal	47
16	Baltimore	188	Jamal Lewis	69
15	NY Giants	183	Cornelius Griffin	59
9	Tennessee	172	Keith Bulluck	68
2	Seattle	168	Shaun Alexander	68
8	New England	167	Tom Brady	104
17	Arizona	156	Thomas Jones	58
31	New Orleans	156	Marc Bulger	57
12	Jacksonville	153	Brad Meester	50
25	Minnesota	146	Chris Hovan	57
21	Carolina	131	Deon Grant	54
18	Cincinnati	131	Neil Rackers	45
1	Oakland	131	Sebastian Janikowski	50
24	Indianapolis	128	Marcus Washington	53
13	Philadelphia	111	Corey Simon	47
4	Washington	111	LaVar Arrington	61
10	Cleveland	110	Dennis Northcutt	41
22	Detroit	96	Reuben Droughns	27
20	Kansas City	96	Greg Wesley	38
28	St. Louis	94	Brian Young	42
27	San Diego	87	Damion McIntosh	39
29	Atlanta	66	Mark Simoneau	31
5	Buffalo	64	Sammy Morris	26
3	Tampa Bay	60	Cosey Coleman	27
26	Miami	59	Todd Wade	39
30	Dallas	34	Mario Edwards	24

The biggest issue with AV, IMO, is that it doesn't rate kickers (or punters), and there were three kickers and one punter who were drafted in 2000 -- first-rounder Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland), along with Neil Rackers (Cincinnati), Paul Edinger (Chicago), and Shane Lechler (Oakland again). I decided to go with a very simple rating of 1 AV per 20 points scored for each of these kickers. The very best players ever in the NFL have AVs around 150-200 for their careers (Jerry Rice is 250), and that would put the best kickers -- the ones around 2,000 career points at about 100 AV, which seems fair for kickers. As for Lechler, I semi-arbitrarily gave him an AV of 40 -- less than Jano, but still appropriate, I think, for a guy who's been probably the best punter of the last 10 years.

Some observations:

• It's not hard to rule the roost when you have four #1 draft picks, as the Jets did in 2000. None have gone on to truly spectacular, HOF-worthy careers, but the foursome of John Abraham, Chad Pennington, Shaun Ellis, and Anthony Becht have a total AV of 208, which would be enough for fourth place alone -- not bad for one round!
  
• Lechler and Jano save Oakland from having a truly abysmal draft; without my AV assignments to those two, the Raiders would have mustered just 41 total AV from their other picks, good for #30 (of 31) on the list. Still, they were probably a tad overrated by King.
• Meanwhile, King's worst draft grade went to New Orleans, and probably deservedly so. Marc Bulger never played a down for the Saints; without him, the team's total AV drops to a mediocre 99, with Darren Howard (42) as the only notable.
• Several of King's lowest grades -- St. Louis (28), San Diego (27), Atlanta (29), Miami (26), and Dallas (30) -- actually do rank among the worst drafts of 2000. Dallas' picks are especially putrid. Admittedly, they only had five picks, and #49 was their highest, but still... only sixth-rounder Mario Edwards made any kind of NFL impact.
• King doesn't think much of Chicago's draft. "Brian Urlacher had better be great," he said, and he is, at least when he's healthy.
• "he'll be a better pro than Ron Dayne" is what King said about Shaun Alexander. Uh, yeah.
• His opinions of Tampa Bay's and Buffalo's drafts, though, were a little overly optimistic. "Cosey Coleman's an eight-year starter after Randall McDaniel retires," he said. Not bad -- Coleman started for six years with the Bucs and Browns. Then he said, "Corey Moore, will be one of those classic Bills picks (they always get a very good player after the first round, every year), the kind of player GMs will regret passing on." Moore played two years in the NFL, one for Buffalo and one for Miami.
  
• One very good player can really skew a team's overall ranking. If not for Tom Brady, the Patriots would have had a total AV of 63, and their best player would have been Greg Randall (17).
• Tee Martin and Danny Farmer also get big props for Pittsburgh.
• The "uninspired" Vikings draft turns out OK. Unfortunately, Chris Hovan and Fred Robbins wind up playing much of their football outside of Minnesota, forcing the team to rely heavily on free agency for much of the decade, with mixed results.

Anyway, King's analysis of the draft is pretty much what you'd expect: some hits, some misses, overall reasonably good (as anyone can do just by observing draft position and possessing some football savvy) but generally uneven. And, like the Buffalo observation, a whole lot of "this guy is a hidden gem"-type commentary that's easy to ignore when the guy doesn't pan out (which happens 99% of the time) and is highly recounted when it's right. Shame he didn't get on the bandwagon of that Brady guy. Still, I suggest you read the full article if, for nothing else, a trip down nostalgia lane.

Vikings Best Possible Draft, 1999

With regards to the NFL draft, hindsight is always 20/20. Knowing what we know now, there's no way Randy Moss would have lasted until the 21st pick of the first round in 1998 or that Joe Montana wouldn't have been selected until the third round.

As I've done for the past few years, I've gone back to the 1999 draft -- 10 years ago -- and, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, re-picked for the Vikings, when appropriate, to determine who they should have taken in that draft, based on what we now know about the incoming rookies of 1999. Any player still on the board (and usually taken before the Vikings take their next pick) is a possible selection.

It's a fun exercise, not to be taken too seriously, and would give you something to do if you had a time machine. And you could get a hold of Vikings management and convince them that not to take Dimitrius Underwood. Please convince them not to take Dimitrius Underwood.

Round 1, Pick 11
Actual: Daunte Culpepper, QB
BPD: Daunte Culpepper, QB (picked 1-11)

The Culpepper selection was seen as a bit of a head-scratcher by a team that had just enjoyed a monster season from Randall Cunningham and had picked up Jeff George. It turned out to be a rather wise selection, though, with Cunningham predictably coming back down to earth and George, while having a solid season, predictably wearing out his welcome and being jettisoned a year later. Despite some ups and downs, Culpepper was the most reliable quarterback the Vikings had had since the days of Tommy Kramer and is only one of two players in team history (along with Fran Tarkenton) to lead the Vikings in passing for five straight years.

This is actually a tougher pick than it seems. A lot of good players, notably Jevon Kearse, John Tait, and Antoine Winfield are still available before the Vikings' next pick, later in the first round. And Culpepper left the team with a bad taste following his horrid, injury-shortened 2005 season; the Vikings have yet to find a suitable replacement for him at QB. But I think I'm still going to stick with him in this slot. Kearse has been about as mercurial a talent as Culpepper, Tait was a tackle (the team had Korey Stringer and Todd Steussie), and, well, we already got Winfield :)

Round 1, Pick 29
Actual: Dimitrius Underwood, DE
BPD: Dre Bly, CB (picked 2-41)

As mentioned previously, Dimitrius Underwood was possibly the worst first-round pick in Vikings history. Carrie Underwood would have been a better selection (and might have increased our chances of later signing Tony Romo...). He attempted to commit suicide during his rookie season and never appeared in a game with the team, playing just 16 games with Dallas over the next few seasons.

With the bar set so low, just about anyone would be an improvement, but why not aim high and take Dre Bly? The 10-year veteran with 40 career interceptions would have been a significant upgrade over burn victim Jimmy Hitchcock, who somehow lucked his way into a seven-interception, three-TD year in 1998 but would only start seven more games, for Carolina and New England after 1999. Kenny Wright, who wound up starting as a rookie in 1999, wasn't much better in his three years as a Viking.

Round 2, Pick 44
Actual: Jim Kleinsasser, TE
BPD: Joey Porter, LB (picked 3-73)

I like Jim Kleinsasser. Really, I do. And while he's a phenomenal blocker, and not a bad receiver for such a big guy, he's hardly Hall of Fame material. Porter might not be either, but he's a heck of a lot closer. His 83 sacks are more than any other player drafted in 1999, and he's appeared in 154 of a possible 160 games since 1999, a testament to his durability.

Round 4, Pick 120
Actual: Kenny Wright, DB
BPD: Edwin Mulitalo, G (picked 4-129)

As previously mentioned, Wright was nothing special during his Vikings career. And the pickings are starting to get a little slim this far down in the draft, but we can still do better. With Randall McDaniel aging -- he was 35 in 1999, his final year with the team -- drafting Mulitalo as his eventual replacement would be a wise investment. Playing on a line alongside Johnathan Ogden in Baltimore, Mulitalo isn't very well known, but his contributions to Jamal Lewis's glory years can't be ignored.

Round 4, Pick 125
Actual: Jay Humphrey, T
BPD: Roderick Coleman, DT (picked 5-153)

Jay who? Humphrey never suited up in the NFL, making this an easier pick to replace than Underwood. I'll take "Rowdy" Roddy Coleman in his place, one of the league's unsung defensive tackle stalwarts for most of this decade. His 58.5 career sacks (with three double-digit seasons) are extremely impressive for an interior lineman. By comparison, Kevin Williams has 42.5 while appearing in just 15 fewer games.

Round 5, Pick 169
Actual: Chris Jones, LB
BPD: Desmond Clark, TE (picked 6-179)

Another "Where are they now?" pick (but only if we cared), Jones also never played a down in the NFL and was the last pick of the fifth round. His replacement, Desmond Clark, on the other hand, has appeared in 146 of a possible 160 games, with over 300 career catches. And drafting him takes some of the pain from not getting 'Sass earlier...

Round 6, Pick 185
Actual: Talance Sawyer, DE
BPD: Hunter Smith, P (picked 7-210)

Sawyer at least had a minor career, starting two seasons with the Vikings and appearing in a total of 39 games. Pickings are so slim, though, that we're forced to take a punter at this stage of the draft, but you could do a lot worse than lifetime Colt Hunter Smith, who's averaged 43.4 yards per boot over his 10-year career, even if Mitch Berger did still have a little gas left in the tank.

Round 6, Pick 199
Actual: Antico Dalton, LB
BPD: Donald Driver, WR (picked 7-213)

This one's easy, even if you hate the Packers. Sure, the Vikings had Randy Moss and Cris Carter, but Jake Reed was on the way out, so why not replace him with -- well, a slower version of Cris Carter. Hey, can't argue with results, right?

Round 7, Pick 236
Actual: Noel Scarlett, DT
BPD: Jim Finn, FB (picked 7-253)

"Noel Scarlett" sounds more like the hero of a romance novel than a 320-pound defensive tackle. His NFL career was almost as fictional as one, as he appeared in just one game, with Dallas in 2000. With only 17 players left to be picked, there's not much out there, so I'm going with Mr. Irrelevant himself, Jim Finn. Now the Vikings have replaced Kleinsasser as both a tight end and a fullback. Brilliant! Center Todd McClure would also be a good pick, but the Vikings still had Jeff Christy and Matt Birk was waiting in the wings, so center wouldn't seem to be much of a need for the team.

So, to recap, the Vikings "improved" draft nets them a quarterback, a ball-hawking corner, a talented (if mouthy) linebacker, a stalwart guard, a forceful defensive tackle, a quality tight end, a dependable punter, an overlooked (at the time) wide receiver, and a bruising fullback.

Admittedly, with the possible exception of Porter, none of these guys are probably destined for Canton, but there isn't much I can do about that with my revisionist history. Half the players drafted ahead of Culpepper -- notably Donovan McNabb, Edgerrin James, Torry Holt, and Champ Bailey -- have at least a shot at the Hall of Fame. Only three players -- Bly, Porter, Driver, and Al Wilson -- drafted after the first round have been to multiple Pro Bowls, making 1999 perhaps the most top-heavy draft in recent history.

I am smarter than Mel Kiper *

* Mel Kiper of nearly three weeks ago, that is.

I posted a pseudo-contest last week to let people post their own mock drafts and see how close they got to each other and to a few of the "pros." Three people (myself included) posted their mock drafts and I scanned around a bit to other people's blogs to get a few more, along with five professional mock drafts (sort of) in a "Pros vs. Joes"-style competition.

The good news: We won!

The bad news: We kinda cheated. See below.

I won't repeat scoring details here (just remember the lower, the better), so here are the overall results:

Jason Winter
Score: 149
Perfect picks: 9

Bartolis
Score: 150
Perfect picks: 2

Mantlerose
Score: 177
Perfect picks: 7

Spidey_2k
Score: 195
Perfect picks: 1

3rdStone
Score: 160
Perfect picks: 160

Amateurs' average
Score: 166.2
Perfect picks: 5.4

And now, the pros:

Mel Kiper (ESPN)
Score: 165
Perfect picks: 6

Todd McShay (ESPN)
Score: 166
Perfect picks: 5

Sporting News
Score: 207
Perfect picks: 2

MJD (Yahoo)
Score: 175
Perfect picks: 4

Peter King (SI)
Score: 133
Perfect picks: 6

Pros' average
Score: 169.2
Perfect picks: 4.6

And now, the caveats:

* McShay's and Kiper's picks come from two weeks before, as supplied by bartolis. So they were made about one week before my picks on last Tuesday. Still, the only major development in that time, I feel, was the trade of Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons, which ruined my Brandon Pettigrew-to-the-Falcons pick. (Kiper and McShay also had the Falcons taking Pettigrew.) If anyone's got access to McShay's/Kiper's last-minute picks, I'd love to see them.

* The MJD draft, as I alluded to on Thursday, was actually a conglomerate draft from a bunch of (apparently poorly informed) people. So it only sorta fits in the "pro" section, but hey, if a major web site wants to run it, I'm a-gonna count it.

* On the other hand, there's no excuse for that Sporting News draft. Andre Smith at #21? Really?

* And there's even less excuse for Peter King, whose mock draft appears to have been posted Friday afternoon, about 24 hours before the start of the draft. Oh wait, he doesn't need an excuse. He mopped up.

A few other cheers and jeers about the 10 mock drafts:

* Cheers to bartolis and 3rdStone, who were the only ones crazy enough to get inside Crazy Al Davis' head and put Darrius Heyward-Bey at #7 on their drafts. I just have to remember that, for next year, assume the Raiders will take the fastest player available, regardless of anything else.

* spidey_2k and the MJD drafts were the only ones not to put Matthew Stafford at #1 overall (each picking Aaron Curry). bartolis and mantlerose were the only ones to not put Jason Smith in the #2 slot.

* As a result, Stafford and Curry led with 8 correct predictions. 5 people picked B.J. "Sore Eagles" Raji at #9 to the Packers, while 3 people each correctly selected the draft positions of Andre Smith, Aaron Maybin, Malcolm Jenkins, Brian Cushing, and Hakeem Nicks.

* What the heck happened to Everette Brown? Everyone except Peter King had him going in their top 20 picks (average of 12.8), but he wasn't selected until the 11th pick of the second round -- #43 overall. Similarly, Michael Johnson was touted as a late-round draft pick by three of us bloggers, and he didn't go until the sixth pick of the third round.

* Apart from those, the worst in-round draft gaffe has to go to the MJD draft, which picked Tyson Jackson to go at #30. He went #3 overall. Good thing I had a limit of 10 "points" per selection.

* mantlerose was the only blogger to put Larry English in his mock draft (at #13), and the linebacker went #16 overall to the Chargers.

* Nobody -- neither amateur nor pro -- had Percy Harvin going to the Vikings, and only three of the 10 mock drafts had the Vikings taking a wide receiver. (Five picked an offensive lineman.) Can one of us replace Brad Childress in the Vikings' war room next year?

Oh mercy, we got Percy

I had my heart set on an offensive lineman.

When Detroit passed on taking an offensive lineman with their #20 pick, I rejoiced. I didn't know exactly what Cleveland's needs were, but I was hopeful that they would pass on tackle Michael Oher. I was even hoping that, with their sudden receiver needs, that they'd take Percy Harvin, preventing the Vikings from doing so (which I knew they'd be tempted to do) and landing Oher, who was projected as going about 8-10 picks earlier.

Cleveland took Alex Mack, another potential target for the Vikings, but Oher was still on the board. ESPN highlighted Oher, who was in New York, waiting to be drafted. All the signs pointed to Oher. I thought positive...Oher, Oher, Oher...

"The Minnesota Vikings select Percy Harvin, wide receiver, Florida."

I nearly threw my phone into the TV.

I know what I said about not evaluating the draft too early and giving guys a chance to develop. But this is the worst possible situation for Harvin and the Vikings and has a strong possibility of developing into the biggest bust of the first round.

Harvin is like Reggie Bush, Jr. Meaning that he'll wow you here and there but won't be the kind of consistent performer you look for in a first-round pick. Bush is more flashy than he is great, averaging 3.7 yards per rush for his career and 7.5 per reception -- mediocre numbers for a running back, much less the #2 overall pick.

Harvin isn't Bush, per se, and though he's listed as a wide receiver, he actually had more rushes in college than receptions. That's probably due to his usage in Urban Meyer's spread offense, which has produced such NFL notables as Deshawn Wynn, Chad Jackson, Dallas Baker, Chris Leak, and Alex Smith. Yeah. Good luck to the team that drafts Tim Tebow next year -- you're going to need it.

Still, you look at the way Sean Payton utilizes Bush in New Orleans and figure that there might be a way for an inventive coach and innovative offensive coordinator to use Harvin in a way that would contribute to a high-powered, attack-oriented offense.

If only we had any of those.

Harvin's also got the fabled "character issues"; he failed a drug test at the combine, when you know you're going to be tested (ESPN said that he was either "stupid" or "had a real problem," neither of which are desirable). Brad Childress apparently sat down with him earlier this week and was convinced that's all behind him. And hey, we all trust Brad Childress's judgment, right?

The Vikings did address their offensive line issues in round two, taking mammoth (6'7 3/4". 332 lbs.) tackle Phil Loadholt out of Oklahoma, who looks to be an awesome road-grader as a run blocker but could have trouble dealing with speedy defensive ends while protecting the pass.

Still, the success of this draft for the Vikings will undoubtedly ride on the success of Harvin in a purple uniform. With Oher taken one pick later by the Ravens, a lot of people (including me) will be comparing the career paths of the two and grading them against each other. In the shorter term, if Harvin even smells like a bust in 2009...well, maybe our next head coach will know what to do with him.

The best 2009 NFL Draft grade goes to...

Minnesota. Or Jacksonville. Or Tampa Bay. Or maybe Buffalo. Dallas, perhaps?

Because predicting who'll get the most out of their draft class a day before the event is about as reliable as predicting it the day after the draft.

Consider this article, from ESPN's 2005 draft archive, titled "Solid drafts move Cardinals, Vikings forward," which provides us with the following excerpt:

The Vikings got playmakers on both sides of the ball in the first round, surprising some pundits by choosing wide receiver Troy Williamson over Mike Williams and adding to a fast-improving, young defensive front with pass-rush end Erasmus James. But the Vikes not only started fast, they finished nicely as well, adding "value board" prospects such as offensive lineman Marcus Johnson (who could replace right guard David Dixon), corner Dustin Fox (a potential "nickel" contributor as a rookie) and tailback Ciatrick Fason. If coach Mike Tice is as serious as he claims to be about returning to the power run game that Minnesota abandoned in 2004, Fason could be a factor.

Ciatrick Fason wasn't a factor anywhere except maybe in the unemployment line. Dustin Fox I barely remember; Troy Williamson and Erasmus James I want to forget. And Marcus Johnson just signed with the Raiders a month ago.

Didn't know that? Neither did I, until I read this article, titled "Vikings aim to flip lesson of '05 flops."

Seven players were taken by the Vikings that spring, and four years later, as the team prepares for another draft, none remain.

Ouch.

Obviously, the Vikings have done a much better job of improving their team via free agency the last few years than through the draft. Jared Allen was our pseudo-#1 pick last year and played better than any rookie would have and, Fred Smoot aside, our big-name free-agent or trade targets have panned out reasonably well or better. The draft is important (and finding Adrian Peterson helps), but it's not the only way to build, and, with the salaries commanded by top-of-the-draft, unproven rookies, its arguably not even cheaper any more.

(Meanwhile, what about the Cardinals' 2005 draft? Antrel Rolle looks like the only truly useful player in that bunch. The ESPN article goes on to question Seattle's "reach" for Lofa Tatupu and Denver's pick of Darrent Williams, who looked good in his two years in the league before being shot and killed in 2007.)

So, just keep in mind when you see "Draft grades" and other immediate post-draft coverage that the "experts" have about as good an idea as how a team's draft picks will pan out as you do. Of course, that won't stop me (and everyone else) from giving our views on the best and worst picks, especially for our chosen teams, next week. But as long as you acknowledge it's more fun than serious, you'll be all right.

And while we're talking about Mock Drafts...

Here's a great one.

He doesn't think the Lions will draft Matthew Stafford #1 overall. OK, I can believe that's a possibility. So Stafford goes to the Seahawks at #4. Again, acceptable.

So, where does Mark Sanchez go? Not to the Seahawks, obviously. Nor to the Jaguars at #8. Nor the 49ers at #10. Redskins at #13? Nope. Surely the Jets (#17) or Bucs (#19), both of whom seem to be lining up for Josh Freeman, will take him, right? Nope, and nope. Well, what about the Lions at #20? If they pass on Stafford, then -- no, no, not the Lions either.

And look at that. The Vikings, at pick #22, select Mark Sanchez.

Hey, I'd be all for it. But there are at least half a dozen teams that are going to pick Sanchez (and maybe trade up for him) before the Vikings even sniff him.

Looking it over, it seems that the draft picks were by the individual bloggers of SB Nation, and not by the author of the article, Matthew J. Darnell, himself. Which probably explains why they're bloggers instead of running an actual football team.

Still, that means I'll be using this one as one of the "pro" boards in my un-contest. Question, though: Does anyone have ESPN Insider? I'd love to include Mel Kiper's or Todd McShay's drafts in the un-contest, but you can only view their first 16 picks without Insider status.

NFL Draft Un-contest

A few years ago, pro-football-reference.com did a draft contest that I participated in (and did poorly at). Unfortunately, they haven't run it since, so I thought I'd take a shot at resurrecting it here.

The basic concept is simple: Post your first-round mock draft, by draft position, not team (so that even if, say, you list Matthew Stafford #1 and Detroit trades out of the #1 pick and some other team picks Stafford, you still get credit). Do this for all 32 picks in the first round in the comments (on either site). If you've posted your mock draft elsewhere, give me the link and I'll use that. I'll compile everyone's results and score them after the draft.

I'm going to do scoring a bit different (read: simpler) than how PFR did it, though. First, there will be no bonus for getting your pick in early, since we're only a few days out anyway. Second, each player can be named only once. As for scoring, you'll simply score one "point" for each spot you're off, to a maximum of 10. The lowest "score" wins. I'll also look up a few mock drafts from the "pros" and see how they score, to compare to us "amateurs."

So, if you pick Mark Sanchez to go in the #4 spot and he's picked at #10, you'd get 6 points. I'll track players into the second round, so if your #31 pick goes at #35, you'll get 4 points. The 10-point maximum is to keep one or two bad picks from ruining your entire entry. Think Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn. As with every other contest I've run on this site, there's no prize, just bragging rights.

Entries are due before the first pick of the draft; I'll post mine in the comments (as soon as I figure out what to pick). Make sure that players are listed unambiguously: "J. Smith," "Jason Smith," "Smith, Baylor" are all fine, but "OL Smith" is not, since I wouldn't know if you're referring to Jason Smith or Andre Smith. And please number your picks so it'll be easier to track.

Good luck!

Tuesday snark

Most mock drafts I'm seeing have the Vikings picking some combination of QB, OL, WR, and CB for their first two draft picks -- all solid need areas.

This one has us picking a defensive end in the first round and a safety in the second. The DE position opposite Jared Allen isn't even remotely a concern, with Ray Edwards and Brian Robison notching a combined 7.5 sacks, and the Vikings drafted a safety in the second round last year (Tyrell Johnson) to serve as Darren Sharper's eventual successor. Someone ought to give this Draft Dog the Ol' Yeller treatment.

(Even better, look at their 2010 Mock Draft, which has the Vikings picking 10th. If that's how they think the team will do, then I feel very good about next season.)

* Sure, the Vikings have the Love Boat scandal, but at least one of our players never beat up a paper-towel dispenser.

* Is it any surprise that a Chicago Tribune writer came up with this?

Favre's numbers were skewed by an awful December in which he threw only two touchdown passes against eight interceptions.

Funny, I thought they were skewed by that September game where he threw for six TDs. Take that away and his passer rating is 76.7. Oh, that's right, you only remove a game or a couple games from a sample when it helps your argument, not when it hurts it.

* Not sure how long it will last, but go to the Alex Rodriguez story here. The headline is "A-Rod says he took energy booster." Look to the right, after the related headlines. I see an ad stating "Tired of Being Tired?" and pimping an ad for a product that says it "fights fatigue."

Yeah, maybe an ad for an energy-boosting supplement wasn't the greatest choice for that page. But hey, as long as everyone's making money, steroids are OK. It's when they start costing MLB fans (and fans' dollars) that they'll actually do something about it.

Cut the draft (and the minors)

Every MLB franchise has one, and exactly one goal: win the World Series. To do this, you need good players at the major-league level. Therefore, the goal of every draft and every farm season should be to find and develop players to play in the big leagues. Simple, right?

Then why are so many drafts, and, by extension, most low minor-league teams, near-complete failures at this seemingly obvious task? Even in a sport where failing seven times out of 10 is considered "good," most teams would be overjoyed to have such success with the draft and their minor-league system.

I looked back to drafts and minor-league squads from 1998, 10 years ago, figuring that, by now, anyone who was with an organization at that time should have already made an impact on the big-league club. And the results are staggeringly inefficient. Here, for instance, is the 1998 draft for the Twins, considered one of baseball's best franchises for manufacturing talent from within. An impressive bunch, no? Only seven of 49 selected players ever appeared in the big leagues, and only JJ Putz (who didn't sign with the Twins and was re-selected in 1999 by the Mariners) has made any significant impact.

It isn't just Minnesota, either. Take a look at some other teams' draft from that page (the "Picks by Franchise/Year pull-down menus at the top). I'm not going to go through each team, but I'll glance at a few:

Orioles: 5 picks in majors
Cardinals: 9
Brewers: 2

And, again, most of those players are fringe major leaguers. Take a look at a few more, and you'll see a lot more "inefficient" drafts. Sure, the Indians got CC Sabathia in the first round, but their only other major-leaguers were Zach Sorensen, Ryan Drese, and Matt White. The White Sox did pretty well, too, drafting Kip Wells, Aaron Rowand, and Josh Fogg in the first four rounds, along with Nate Robertson (later drafted by Florida) in the 16th and Mark Buehrle in the 38th round. Still, that's only five decent players, four of whom played for the Sox, out of 52 picks. They could have drafted me instead of 50th-round pick Justin Hairston and gotten the same results (and I would have played for cheap).

Overall, only 79 of the 223 (35.4%) players picked through the first seven rounds of the 1998 draft ever cracked a big-league roster. And several of those either weren't signed by the teams that drafted them (like Mark Prior by the Yankees) or had insignificant big-league careers.

The NFL Draft, of course, is also seven rounds. Admittedly, an NFL draftee has a much better chance of cracking a roster and at least appearing in a game, being generally older and not having to work through a minor-league system. Even so, of the 241 players drafted in 1998, 116 (48.1%) were considered a starter for at least one season of his career -- more than the percentage of 1998 MLB draftees that just appeared in a major-league game. It's not a perfect comparison, but remember that the NFL Draft ran 12 rounds until 1992 and was even longer before that. Has the league suffered since the draft was shortened? Not that I can see. Look at the 12th round of any MLB draft and you'll see even less impressive results. Did the 1998 draft have to go that far just so John Koronka could throw 151 innings with a 6.02 ERA? Yes, you'd miss out on the occasional Buehrle or Mike Piazza, but maybe you could actually make the whole thing -- beginning to end -- seem meaningful.

"But," you might say, "teams need the bigger draft to fill out their minor leagues so they can develop talent." A few months ago, aajoe7 posted about how the draft and MLB in general is "ruthlessly efficient at weeding out those players who can't cut it in the Big Leagues; more than any other sport, MLB players earn their right to play in the show."

But how well do the minors do at developing talent? There's little question that many of the players in the higher minors (AA and AAA) are quality prospects, but what about the low minors? Again, going back to 1998, here are the Twins' two rookie-level teams and their low A team. I see a few players who got a cup of coffee in the bigs, along with a couple part-time major-leaguers (Matt LeCroy and Grant Balfour) and two solid contributors (Juan Rincon and Michael Cuddyer). That's four players out of about 80 who made any impact on the big-league team, and only two who the team would have actually missed.

So, in effect, the Twins' three lowest minor-league teams existed solely to develop less than a handful of players. I realize minor leaguers don't make a lot of money or stay in fancy hotels, but they do require some salaries, stadium rent, travel costs, and management. How much money and effort would a team save by eliminating two or even three of its lowest minor-league teams? What would they really lose? Rincon's iffy, but Cuddyer was a #1 pick, so he still would have gotten a chance somewhere in the organization.

Take some time to scan through the 1998 draft and minor-league teams for your favorite organization, and you'll probably find similar lack-of-success stories. If I were in charge, I'd probably cut the MLB draft at least in half and reduce the minor-leagues to four teams, max, per big-league team: a low A/rookie team for your really young/raw talent, a high-A team for second- or third-year youngsters, and AA and AAA filling essentially the same roles they do today. The rest just don't seem to serve the implied purpose of every team: producing major-league talent. So why do they exist?

Vikings' Best Possible Draft, 1998

One of the earliest posts on my revitalized blog was about the 1997 NFL Draft and the picks the Vikings could have made instead of the ones they did make, using 10 years' worth of hindsight. I called it the BPD, or Best Possible Draft. Here's a bit of the description of the system from that post:

In other words, if the top of my draft looked like this:

1: Troy Aikman (DAL)
2: Tony Mandarich (GB)
3: Barry Sanders (DET)

And I was figuring the Packers' BPD, I'd probably say they pick Sanders, who was available with their #2 pick, but not Aikman, who was off the board. In general, your best pick will fall between your current pick and your next pick, though this wasn't always the case. And, of course, evaluation of players' abilities and the success of their careers is completely at my whim.

I didn't take a team's positional needs at the time of the draft into account, but I also didn't give them a completely implausible draft (like 6 running backs). Even though the 1997 version of the draft presented below is largely defensive, it's at least realistic.

So, without further ado, let's fast-forward a year to the 1998 Draft and see how the Vikings fared and how they could have done if they'd had a crystal ball (or at least, access to a Vikings-loving time traveler):

Round 1, Pick 21
Actual: Randy Moss, WR
BPD: Randy Moss, WR (picked 1-21)

Hard to argue with Moss here. OK, you can argue, based on how things went off the field, but I always felt that Moss was fine as long as he had someone to control him a bit. In the early days, that was Dennis Green and Cris Carter. When Carter left and Green lost whatever disciplinary skills he may have once possessed, things went downhill. Then we have Mike Tice and, with Oakland, Norv Turner and Art Shell, and Moss is a "problem child."

Then "Bam!", send him to Bill Bellichek and everything's rosy. Who would have thunk it? Well, me for one.

Anyway, there are some good players between this pick and the Vikings' next, including Alan Faneca, Flozell Adams, and Patrick Surtain. But I'll stick with the Vikings' real pick.

Round 2, Pick 51
Actual: Kailee Wong, LB
BPD: Olin Kreutz, C (3-64)

Wong was wrong for the Vikes, turning in four unremarkable seasons before going to Houston in the expansion draft in 2002. Assuming I'd know everything about the 1998 draft in advance, it's a tough choice between Kreutz and Ahman Green, and even Jeremiah Trotter seems a decent choice. Of course, the Vikings did draft a center in this draft -- but we'll get to that later.

Round 3, Pick 80
Actual: Ramos McDonald, DB
BPD: Hines Ward, WR (3-92)

Easy selection here. Yes, this overloads the Vikings a bit at WR (they would at this point have Carter, Moss, Ward, and Jake Reed) but provides the team with a good young core to overtake the aging Carter and the inconsistent Reed. Plus, with those wide receivers -- all of them great blockers -- Robert Smith might not have seen the need to retire after the 2000 season.

OK, probably not.

Round 4, Pick 110
Actual: Kivuusama Mays, LB
BPD: Jason Fabini, T (4-111)

Mays had a cool name, but that was about all he had going for him. As for Fabini, it's a toss-up between him and guard Benji Olson (Titans), picked in the fifth round. We'll get to why I went with the tackle in a moment. We've already got a center and a tackle, so next, of course, we'll have to pick...

Round 5, Pick 144
Actual: Kerry Cooks, DB
BPD: Matt Birk, C (6-173)

...another center? Well, maybe. Remember back in the early days of Birk's career, when he was one of the league's rare pulling centers? Imagine and offensive line of Kreutz at center, Birk at guard, and Fabini at tackle. Remember, in those days the Vikings still had Todd Steussie, Randall McDaniel, and Korey Stringer, though all would be gone by the 2001 season (Stringer, unfortunately, for good).

Yeah, I know we don't have any defensive picks at this point. But man, what an O-line!

Round 6, Pick 173
Actual: Matt Birk, C
BPD: Matt Hasselbeck, QB (6-187)

And taking Birk a round early frees us up to select Hasselbeck here, meaning the Vikings take a good pick away from both Chicago (Kreutz) and Green Bay (Hasselbeck). Brilliant!

Round 7, Pick 208
Actual: Chester Burnett, LB
BPD: Nate Wayne, LB (7-219)

Pickings are understandably thin at this point, but Wayne at least was a decent starter for a few years for the Pack. And that's yet another pick "stolen" from an NFC North foe.

Round 7, Pick 225
Actual: Tony Darden, DB
BPD: Pat Tillman, DB (7-226)

Nuff said.

Booty call

I figured I'd get an early start on what promises to be a plethora of puns on the name of the newest Vikings quarterback, John David Booty. When Tarvaris Jackson struggles, the press will wonder if the Vikings should "call on Booty." If he has a good game, they'll label him "Booty-licious." If the Vikings are selected to play overseas and the game is in Germany, and Booty gets the start, the headline will read "Das Booty." Feel free to leave your own in the comments section.

Anyhoo, once you get past his piratical name, it's tempting to see Booty as the great savior of the Vikings' shaky quarterback situation. For the first time since his arrival in Minnesota, Tarvaris Jackson may finally be skating on thin ice, and, despite Brad Childress' reassurance that (paraphrasing from his interview right after the selection) "Tarvaris is still our quarterback, but we realize that every NFL team needs more than one quarterback," it seems likely that, barring a tremendous season from Jackson, Booty will get his chance to start, either in 2008 or shortly thereafter.

Booty's college fame certainly contributes to the hype. While not as famous up to the expectations of his predecessors at USC, Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart, who were drafted first and 10th overall in their draft classes, Booty's pedigree and success (18-3 as a starter in 2006 and 2007) can't be completely ignored. His overall numbers are lesser than Palmer's and Leinart's largely because he enjoyed only two seasons as the starting QB (and missed three games to injury in 2008). If you compute all three passers' rating (using the NFL system -- college uses a different system that I have yet to comprehend), you get 110.7 for Leinart, 96.6 for Booty, and 85.9 for Palmer. That's not a spectacular endorsement, since Palmer has clearly had the better NFL career than Leinart thus far, but it might show that Booty isn't as far off when compared to the other two as you might think. And Booty's strong 2007 season (2,361 yards, 23 TDs, and 10 Ints. in 10 games) comes after losing top targets Steve Smith and Keary Colbert to the 2007 NFL Draft.

All that being said, as much as we like to criticize NFL execs (Matt Millen in particular) for making idiotic moves in the draft and free agency, they probably know more than we do. The fact that all 32 teams (they can't all be run by idiots), the Vikings included, passed on Booty multiple times probably speaks some to his actual talent level, or at least perceived talent level. Football's Future says that Booty has "mobility," "a very good arm," and "all the physical talent to be a quality quarterback in the NFL." On the flip side, he "has a tendency to lock onto receivers," "had an issue having his passes tipped at the line of scrimmage," and "will panic at times, believing the rush is closer than it really is." If I read those six snippets of text without any other context, I would wonder which Vikings QB they were describing: Booty or Tarvaris Jackson.

And yes, we hear ad infinitum that Tom Brady and Matt Hasselbeck were 6th-round picks or that Kurt Warner was an undrafted free agent, but the reality is that star players, at any position, are rarely found in the fifth round or later. Here is a list of all quarterbacks drafted in the fifth round or later since the merger in 1970. 19 of them managed to throw for at least 10,000 yards, but the list only contains a few truly good players, while also being populated with the likes of Jeff Blake, Steve Grogan, and our own Gus Frerotte. If there's any silver lining, it could be that the Vikings have gone this route before and come up with multi-year starters Brad Johnson and Wade Wilson. Still, the list goes on for 361 names, meaning that, all things being equal, Booty has about a (19/361) = 5.2% chance of lasting long enough to throw for 10,000 yards in the NFL. Not exactly odds I'd be willing to bet on in Vegas.

John David Booty may or may not be the answer in Minnesota. (One thing is certain: He won't take his #10 jersey from college to the pros.) Then again, if Plan A is another year of Tarvaris Jackson, it's not a bad idea to have a Plan B (preferably one that doesn't include Brooks Bollinger). At the very least, having him on the team will make things interesting this season, though the first time Jackson struggles, he can rest assured that the Metrodome fans won't "boo" him.

They'll be chanting "Booooooooooooooooty."

NFL Draft Mad Libs!

Admit it. You loved Mad Libs as a kid. When I was in grade school, we wasted many trees' worth of paper on such shenanigans -- which was OK because International Falls has a big paper mill in town and lots and lots of trees nearby.

In that spirit, I've crafted a Mad Lib for the NFL Draft! Just pick an answer for each category below, without looking at the text at the bottom of this entry, and then match up each answer with its corresponding number in the text entry. Hilarity then ensues!

(1) Man's first name
(2) Animal (plural)
(3) Number
(4) U.S. City
(5) NFL position (quarterback, kicker, etc.)
(6) Current NFL player who plays position in (5)
(7) Talent or trait (such as leadership, speed, kindness, etc.)
(8) Talent or trait
(9) Verb ending in "ing" (like hiking or sewing)
(10) Last name
(11) Current NFL Draft Prospect (like Jake Long or Joe Flacco)
(12) Ordinal number (like first, second, third, tenth, etc.)
(13) Number between 1 and 16
(14) Future year (i.e., greater than 2008)

And here's the story!

Let’s see what Mel Kiper, Jr. has to say about that last pick:

“I think (1)_____ is going to be a great player for the (2)_____ for the next (3)____ years. He excelled at the University of (4)______ and the team really needed a top-notch (5)_____ after losing (6)_____ to free agency. He brings (7)_____ and (8)_____ to a team that really lacked both qualities last year and his (9)_____ is among the best I’ve seen in years. When I talked to Coach (10)_____ last week, he told me he hoped (11)______ would drop to the team’s (12)____ pick, but if that didn’t work out, he had a backup plan, and that plan’s come to fruition. I see this team winning at least (13)____ games this year, maybe more, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make the Super Bowl by at least (14)_____."

Thanks, Mel!

With the 17th selection: Brian Brohm?

When gymrome offered me the chance to draft for the Vikings in his TSN Mock Draft, I agreed and had every intent of following "the plan" that many have laid out for the Vikings, mainly that they will draft a defensive end in the first round. Roughly 95% of the mock drafts out there have us taking Derrick Harvey with that first pick, and I think I'd be all right with that.

When my turn finally came up in gymrome's draft, I saw that Harvey had already been taken by Broncos, five picks earlier, leading me to re-evaluate the team's needs and the talent available. I told myself I would take a "safe," un-sexy pick, like a lineman (offensive or defensive), until I saw who else wasn't on the list of drafted players, and I couldn't resist. Take a look at the post on gymrome's blog to see who I picked and read my reasoning behind it. I wish I could say I have complete confidence in the selection; truthfully, I don't, and I may have succumbed to a combination of wishful thinking and glory-grabbing, but I'll try to lay out here a few more reasons why Brian Brohm, if he's available, would be a good first-round pick for the Vikings.

First of all, I still like Harvey if he's available. But Brohm would probably be my #2 pick (barring something crazy, like Jake Long somehow plummeting down the list). When I was writing copy for some football cards last month, I had to research several college players, and here's an excerpt from the page I found for Brohm on FootballsFuture:

Brohm has it all from a physical standpoint. He has a nice frame, and is sturdy enough to sit in the pocket and take a hit. His arm is excellent, and he can make all the throws. He is also a good athlete with the mobility to elude the rush and buy more time. On the field, Brohm has proven to be an extremely efficient QB, making smart decisions and not turning the ball over very often.

The only real knock on Brohm is his durability. He has had some injury issues during his stay at Louisville. He tore his ACL as a sophomore, and was hurt twice last year. He tore ligaments in his thumb, and also had surgery on his left shoulder.

The analysis is a year old, and Brohm was healthy his senior year, so I'm not too worried about potential injury issues. "An extremely efficient QB, making smart decisions and not turning the ball over very often." Gee, I'd sure like to have one of those!

Now, I hate it when an announcer describes a quarterback as "managing the game," typically said when his overall numbers aren't great but he avoids turnovers and/or completes many low-risk, short-yardage passes and his team wins the game. (It's especially galling when the quarterback has next to nothing to do with his team's success, but I've been over that already.) Nobody wants their quarterback to "manage the game"; they want their quarterback to win the game. A player who isn't capable of that isn't as good a quarterback as those who can -- guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and the like -- and wouldn't you rather have a better player at the position? Barry Sanders got caught in the backfield for losses a lot but still ripped off enough big runs to average 5.0 yards per carry for his career. Would you rather have a nice, "safe" back who managed 4.0 yards per carry and hardly never gets stopped for a loss? Probably not.

All things being equal, nearly every team would rather have a Manning or Brady than the quarterback they currently have. Of course, all things aren't equal. Would you rather have Manning at $10 million/year or someone like David Garrard at $5 million/year and spend the remaining $5 million on other players? The Vikings are a team that would benefit from the Garrard + $5 million scenario rather than the Manning + $0 scenario because, with their running game and defense, they don't need a dominant passer to win games. Now, if we (or the Jaguars) could get Peyton Manning for $5 million, that would be another matter entirely.

So what's all that got to do with Brohm? If he is an "intelligent" quarterback (this just in: he tied for the highest score among quarterbacks on the Wonderlic test) who avoids turnovers, along the lines of a David Garrard or Jeff Garcia (or a certain third-round pick who never had the strongest arm), then he's still valuable to the team even if he doesn't throw for 35 TDs and 4,000 yards every season. For what it's worth, his college numbers seem to bear that out, as he was picked on only 2.0% of his pass attempts. I'd rather have Peyton Manning (or maybe even Matt Ryan), too, but if this is the best we can get, I'd say go for it.

Of course, everyone will say that first-round quarterbacks are a huge risk. I maintain that they aren't any more risky than any other position -- just more visible. Sure, everyone remembers flameouts Tim Couch, Akili Smith, maybe Alex Smith, and especially Ryan Leaf, but you don't hear as much about David Terrell, Mike Williams (the Buffalo OL, though the wide receiver might also fit the bill), Curtis Enis, Andre Wadsworth, and (a particular favorite) Tony Mandarich, because they're not quarterbacks. And my admittedly unscientific study from last month shows that highly drafted QBs aren't really any more of a risk than other positions, at least in determining whether they'll excel enough to make the Pro Bowl. If you think the team would be better off drafting someone other than Brohm, fine, but don't make that decision "because he's a quarterback." Since the merger, the Vikings have drafted two quarterbacks in the first round, and while neither are destined for the Hall of Fame, they weren't exactly failures in Purple either.

Mock draft dodging

I signed on for gymrome's TSN Mock Draft, to take care of the Vikings' business a few weeks ago. I know that a while back, before free agency, I suggested against a defensive end in the first round, thinking that the team was well enough set at the position and that we had needs elsewhere. Now that those needs have been largely addressed -- most notably at wide receiver and safety, I'm starting to think defensive end might be the best option, especially if the team fails to land a significant free agent in the draft. Wide receiver is almost a non-issue now (and almost looks deep), and Madieu Williams has shored up the safety position.

I still think the offensive line could use an upgrade on the right side, the tight ends could be improved, and quarterback is obviously an issue, though unless Brian Brohm falls in our lap, there probably won't be a first-round talent at the position available, and there could be some decent talent (like Joe Flacco or Andre Woodson) available in the second. Anyway, I've posted a poll to the right to get feedback on how you think the Vikings' #1 pick should be spent. Give me some advice, people. Your mock future depends on it!

* For reasons not entirely clear, the Vikings re-signed Robert Ferguson to a one-year deal worth, according to the link, "approximately $1 million, with a possible $500,000 to $600,000 in incentives." Considering that Ferguson will enter the season as no better than the team's number-four wide receiver -- likely behind Bernard Berrian, Bobby Wade, and Sidney Rice -- and with Aundrae Allison at least likely to figure into the mix near the bottom of the wide-receiver depth chart, it's a bit of an odd move. I suppose someone has to drop passes now that Troy Williamson is gone.

* And just because your team went 1-15 doesn't mean other teams don't want your players. He's no Zach Thomas, but linebacker Derrick Pope is apparently a pretty good special-teams player, and the Vikings inked him to a one-year contract last week. Rufus Alexander, a sixth-round draft pick from 2007 was also expected to contribute on special teams before suffering a season-ending injury in preseason, so the Vikings have essentially added two potentially solid special teams players for 2008. The team ranked 23rd in the league last year on opponents' punt returns and 13th in kickoff returns -- not too awful when you consider that we face Devin Hester twice a year -- so there's room for improvement.

Pardon the Interpretation

While discussing Darren McFadden on Monday's Pardon the Interruption and whether he should be a top-five draft pick, one of the hosts -- Tony Kornheiser, I think -- said that he wouldn't want to draft a running back with a high first-round pick because (and I'm paraphrasing here) "running backs are too much of a risk and are too fragile, because they only last a few years before you need a new one." To "support" his argument Tony rattled off a few names, like Ki-Jana Carter and Curtis Enis, as "proof" that drafting a running back so high is risky.

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize that such an argument is the height of cherry-picking and ignores the several very good backs who have come out of the early part of the draft, guys like Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Barry Sanders. I could just as easily say that you shouldn't draft a quarterback with an early pick and point at Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, and Tim Couch while ignoring Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, and Carson Palmer.

But there is something to the point that running backs have relatively short shelf lives, and a primary back over the age of 30 is a rare thing. This is of special interest to Vikings fans, who hope that Adrian Peterson can take care of business for the next five to ten years or so, and to fantasy players who wonder when Tomlinson, age 29 and going into his eight season in 2008, will hit the wall that most backs do around the age of 30. And, since we're talking about your first-round pick here, you don't just want a decent player who lasts into his 30s -- you want a great player, one who will be a perennial all-star and have at least a shot of making it to the Hall of Fame.

With that in mind, I've scoured the draft lists on pro-football-reference and compiled every first-round pick from 1984 to 2003, 20 drafts' worth. To compare players' relative success across seasons and positions, I'll be using their Pro Bowl berths -- not the greatest metric, I know, but it's a reasonable enough way to compare the greatness of, say, a defensive lineman to a wide receiver. That's why I only include drafts to 2003; that gives every drafted player at least five seasons to make a Pro Bowl.

In those 20 drafts, there have been 583 first-round picks. Of those picks, 212 (36%) made at least one Pro Bowl in their careers. Here's how that breaks down by position (setting aside the only first-round kicker in the last 25 years, Sebastian Janikowski, who has never made the Pro Bowl):

Position	% IN PB	AVG PBS
WR	36.23%	1.41
TE	36.84%	1.37
RB	42.47%	1.14
QB	38.89%	1.14
OL	33.67%	1.43
LB	38.46%	1.48
DL	35.07%	1.07
DB	34.09%	1.15
Total	36.36%	1.25

Interesting. First-round running backs actually make one or more Pro Bowls 42.47% of the time, a large margin over the second-place position (quarterback, 38.89%). So, if you draft a running back in the first round, recent evidence would seem to indicate that he's got a nearly 50-50 chance of being a Pro Bowl player, at least once in his career. Barely one third of all first-round offensive linemen, on the other hand, barely qualify for the Pro Bowl in their careers.

But Tony Kornheiser's beef wasn't with short-term greatness. Instead, he questioned the durability and shelf life of a running back, and that's better expressed in the second column, which lists the average number of Pro Bowls made for each position, including players who played in zero of the games.

Here, the running back's fragility is more evident, with just 1.14 Pro Bowls made per career. Equally intriguing, though, is the similarity of that number to the average Pro Bowls made by first-round quarterbacks. If you take the numbers to one more decimal point, QBs actually win, 1.139 to 1.137, but it's still intriguing. However, I think it can be explained by the recent glut of very good non-first-round quarterbacks, such as Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck, and even Jeff Garcia, a four-time Pro Bowler who wasn't even drafted. Another factor is the relative reluctance teams have to play their highly regarded QBs too soon, while first-round running backs are often handed a heavy load right out of college, thus giving them an extra year or so to establish themselves (and, in the case of Adrian Peterson, to make the Pro Bowl).

As for the other positions, while O-linemen might have trouble making the Pro Bowl, it's no secret that once they're there, they're as hard to dislodge as, well, an offensive lineman. Only linebackers average more Pro Bowls in their careers, and one could argue that they're almost as tough to oust as linemen. D-linemen have the most trouble racking up the bids; it could be that it only takes one or two good games, where a d-lineman racks up five or six sacks, to virtually guarantee a trip to Hawaii, thus allowing more players to rotate through the ranks of Pro Bowlers. Seven sacks in 15 games doesn't usually get a lineman to the Pro Bowl, but that's what Osi Umenyiora did in 2007. Of course, he played in 16 games, including this one, which stamped his ticket to Hawaii. Defensive backs have sort of the same issue. A three-interception game can make all the difference between making the Pro Bowl and not.

In the end, it seems that Tony Kornheiser was at least partially right -- running backs do have relatively short shelf lives, even the great ones that you look for in the first round. Does that mean you shouldn't spend a high pick on one? Of course not. If a tremendous talent (like Darren McFadden or Adrian Peterson) is available, one that can lead your team for six to eight years, you'd be foolish not to snap it up. Very few players, from running backs to quarterbacks to linemen to any position last that long with one team anyway, and it's not really that much riskier than any other position, especially the premier position of quarterback.