It’s only a matter of time before UKIP over take the Lib Dems...

...according to Ed West! A sensational claim, if ever there was one! I guess how you view time will go a long way to determining how shocked you are by West's suggestion. For instance, if he's is talking in the 'It's only a matter of time before Manchester United score' sense then it's extremely farfetched. However, if we read it in a similar context to 'it's only a matter of time before Mount Vesuvius erupts again' the statement becomes a little more plausible!

Either way, the criteria West appears to be placing on this potentially major shift in the British political system is quite low. In two recent YouGov polls UKIP have reached the dizzying heights of 5% in Westminster voting intentions, and in one they were ahead of the Liberal Democrats in the 18-24 subset. Compelling evidence? Clearly not. The Lib Dems were still a few points above UKIP in the headline figures and subsets are hugely volatile, un-weighted small samples. Of course, when you bring in polling from other companies, such as ICM, which are showing the Liberal Democrats are starting to move back towards 15% the argument unwinds even further.

So the polling 'evidence' is spurious, to say the least; how are UKIP doing in some other measures of party size? They trail the Liberal Democrats in Membership (approx 60000/15000 in 2009), MPs (57/0), Devolved Assemblies Members* (24/0) and Councillors (approx 4000/22). They did, of course, beat the Lib Dems in the 2009 European Parliament elections, receiving almost 3% more of the vote and two more seats. I think few would argue that this doesn't really make up for the fact they are miles behind in every other gauge!

There are, however, some serious points to be made on all this. UKIP's main problem is they don't have a recognisable 'core vote'. Essentially, UKIP just have those who want to leave the EU at all costs. Not the firmest of foundations for a political party considering there isn't much stopping almost any party adopting this stance. Just for a second consider this; what would be the point in UKIP if Britain pulled out of the EU? Obviously this would be mission accomplished, but it then suddenly vanished this would suggest all they have ever been is a protest movement masquerading as political party. I'm quite sure those actively involved in UKIP would disagree with that assertion.

The members clearly have more complex political aspirations they have huge issues to address if they are ever to overtaking the Liberal Democrats as a political entity. The Lib Dems are safe in the knowledge they can rely on the support of many small 'l' liberals. In fact, the size of this vote has probably been shown as the party low struggled to poll below 10%, despite the best efforts of their leaders! This slice of the electorate is essentially unable to support the big two's respective policies in areas such as crime and immigration. In turn, neither Labour nor the Tories can soften their stance on these issues to attract these voters for fear of losing their own core supporters. Arguably, the Green Party's base is stronger than UKIPs, as staunch environmentalists see are unlikely to move towards the big parties with their less than convincing moves on Green issues.

What UKIP do have right now is a huge opportunity which could, in the long run, see them poll 10%+ consistently. It would require them to move away from the current perception that it is merely a one issue party (perhaps a name change?!). The coalition has presented the perfect opportunity for a right wing populist party to gain a hold in British politics, albeit probably not one as brash as Geert Wilders' PVV in the Netherlands. If the party positioned themselves correctly, and changed their emphasis, they could attract a fair few right wing Tories' attention for slightly longer than just a Euro election campaign.

In addition, during the last year a couple of other potential steams of new support have opened up for UKIP. They well placed to attract any anti-establishment voters who had previously supported the Liberal Democrats. More importantly, the apparent demise of the British National Party could well benefit UKIP electorally. I have always felt the bulk of BNP voters are attracted to the party's xenophobic streak rather than the far left aspects of their fledgling domestic policies. UKIP's stance on matters such as the Burka marks the party put as an obvious alternative, even if any BNP switchers do not necessarily sign up to the full repertoire of the Daily Mail's touchstone issues.

Having said all that, there is one big caveat; where is the UKIP 'Brighton'? It's all very well polling 10% consistently, but it's hard to see where the party can get its first MP elected. Last May Nigel Farage ended up a poor third following his high profile campaign in Buckinghamshire, whilst no other candidate managed to get above 10% of the vote. No matter how UKIP position itself politically they are never going to breakthrough unless they learn to use FPTP or the electoral system is changed. I imagine this is the primary driver behind their support for the Yes2AV campaign in the forthcoming referendum!

 

Ps. Don't be too hard on Ed West. He isn't the first, and he certainly won't be the last, blogger to publish a sensational article (or use a controversial title) to increase traffic!

* This includes MSPs, Welsh AMs and London AMs.

The final third party breakthrough?

This year could well be a fantastic year for third parties in Britain. The Lib Dems are surging the SNP are targeting twenty seats, the Greens could get their first seats and even UKIP may pick up a seat! Yet, in a sense, this may really be bringing to a head a process that begun long ago, and has really been in the ascendancy since 1974.

1945. A vitally important year in British history. Of course, it marks the end of the Second World War It also marks the 1945 election which swept in the Labour government of Clement Attlee. Attlee's government is famed for its introducing of the NHS, a large-scale welfare state, council housing, mass-nationalisation and more. Yet what is forgotten is it was also the first majority Labour government we ever had. Labour had been providing Prime Ministers since 1922, but they had never had a majority of seats in the Commons, they had always been sent to Downing Street only through the support of the Liberal Party. By the 1951 election 96.8% of ballots cast were cast for Labour, the Conservatives, or their allies. The Liberals were only able to win a meagre six seats. The electorate had essentially become divided down class lines. If you were working class you voted Labour, if you were middle class, you voted Conservative. The Liberals were the party you could fit in a taxi, their only seats were in Cornwall, central Wales and Northern Scotland where they won seats off the back of nonconformist religious sects and localist stances.

Then came the 1960s. The 60s heralded a cultural revolution. Old loyalties were broken, new cultural standards blossomed; cynicism of elites came to the fore. In the 1964 election the headline was that Labour's Harold Wilson had become Prime Minister, but in the quiet background was the fact that the Liberals had gone from 6 seats on 5.9% of the vote to 9 seats on 11.2%. More than 1/10^th of the British public had voted Liberal and rejected the two party duopoly. More was to come. New national identities were found. Suddenly there was less talk of 'Britishness' and more talk of being Welsh, or Scottish. In 1966 Plaid Cymru won the Carmarthen by-election in a shock victory, winning their first ever MP. In 1967 the SNP won the Labour safe seat of Hamilton in a by-election as well. This followed high scores in by-elections and local elections for nationalists in both countries.

The moment for third parties was supposed to be 1974. Predictions suggested that the Liberals could get as many as 50-70 seats. In the end February 1974 heralded a hung parliament. In terms of popular vote both parties got less than 40%, a first. The Liberals more than doubled their vote and their seats, but this took them to only 14. The SNP reached a new high of 7, and Plaid went from 0 in 1970 to 2. Unfortunately the tiny liberals were too small to behave as a coalition partner to either party, and a new election was called. The October 1974 election gave Labour a tiny majority, but the Liberals lost only 1% of the vote, and 1 seat. The SNP and Plaid Cymru actually performed better than in February getting 11 seats (the SNP's best ever showing) and 3 seats respectively. The third parties were not going away. Labour's reducing majority resulted the need to seek Liberal, and then Nationalist support to remain in power, this combined with the trial of Jeremy Thorpe, the Liberal leader, for the supposed attempted murder of his gay lover damaged the third parties performance in 1979, as Thatcher swept to party. Yet Labour's ensuing lurch to the left resulted in a split. The new Social Democratic Party allied with the Liberals, and the new SDP-Liberal Alliance polled incredibly, at times over 50%, but the economy improved, and the Fawklands boosted Thatcher's public image. Nonetheless the Alliance secured 25.4% of the vote and 23 seats, the best result ever for a third party. When they lost 2.8% of the vote and a seat in 1987 the two parties merged to form the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats quickly lost support. The 1989 European election was a particular low point, where they won only 6% of the vote. Nonetheless this did not represent the end of third parties as the Green Party won their best ever popular support, at 15%. Under Paddy Ashdown though, they recovered enough to lose only 2 seats on 17.8% of the vote in 1992. They actually lost votes in 1997, but the Lib Dems almost doubled their seats thanks to tactical voting by Labour supporters. They would continue to gain seats and votes until 2005, where they won the most seats of any third party since the 1920s, and along with other third parties, pushed Labour and the Conservatives down to less than 70% of the vote between them for the first time ever.

Much talk surrounds whether Liberal Democrat or other third party voters come from Labour or the Conservatives. In reality they don't come from anywhere. Since the 1960s there has been a large portion of the electorate that has been alienated from both parties. This portion has fluctuated up and down, but it exists and it is sizeable. What this election has done is to demonstrate just how big that portion of the electorate may be. Whatever happens on Thursday, nothing will the same ever again, and the reason is that these people can no longer be ignored. Third parties matter more than ever, they are increasingly seen as a legitimate place to vote. If the electoral system continues it will become increasingly difficult to secure majorities because there is an increasing bank of seats which will be secured by third parties. Parties therefore need to secure more seats than the main opposition AND the third parties, and the thing about the results of the Lib Dems and their predecessors the Liberals is that it is VERY difficult to unseat them when they get a seat. Even when the Liberals do worse than in a previous election, they have, at worst, lost 1 or 2 seats. Politics has fragmented, this is the reality now. An eventual change in the electoral system is now inevitable, not because the Lib Dems want it, but because First Past the Post has ceased to reflect the way the British people vote. In fact in many ways, it ceased to represent them decades ago.

Edit: This graph proves my point rather effectively I think.

UKIP Set Sights High in Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

UKIP have identified Plymouth as their #1 target in the General Election as Andrew Leigh aims to become the party’s first Member of Parliament. It may seem like little more than a pipe dream for the anti-European Union party to secure a seat under the First-Past-The-Post electoral system but Leigh certainly feels he has much to be positive about.

“In Plymouth UKIP topped the poll in the European Elections last June so this is most definitely the platform from which we will win our first seats”, declares Leigh. “West Country people are traditionally ‘non-conformist’; loyal to the country but sceptical of the way the main parties conduct themselves.” In fact UKIP polled more votes than Labour and the Liberal Democrats put together in Plymouth last year which would suggest the main parties would be foolish to dismiss Leigh as irrelevant.

The UKIP Candidate also rejects the notion that his votes will come mainly from disaffected Conservatives:

“We will almost certainly gain more Labour than Conservative voters in this election and a very large number from the Liberal Democrats. Most traditional Labour voters are patriotic and highly suspicious of the EU.

“Many South West Liberal Democrat voters do not support the party’s fanatical enthusiasm for the EU and are now seeing a better place to register their protests. We are a centre ground, Libertarian party concerned that our democracy is being eroded by unelected, foreign lawmakers in Brussels”

With this year’s election set to throw up more than a few surprises UKIP are sure to give their more established opponents a headache in the coming months. Leigh’s biggest obstacle is the electoral system but he is confident he can persuade the people of Plymouth to vote positively in May. He states, “We believe that we can win the seat. I wouldn’t be putting in so much effort if I believed differently!”

With the expenses scandal fresh in people’s minds I’m sure Leigh will secure a significant proportion of the vote on Election Day. Turning Plymouth ‘pink’ is perhaps a step too far but big changes in British politics are certainly on the cards. Minor parties are increasingly adapting to the current electoral system by targeting a small number of seats and I for one will not be surprised if we see a few historic gains this year. So even without electoral reform, by the end of the decade we could see pockets of the country taken over by minor parties and the South West is primed for a UKIP advance. Andrew Leigh is hoping electorate of Plymouth Sutton & Devonport are already prepared to send shockwaves through British politics and return the first member of UKIP to Parliament.