2008/09 Memphis Grizzlies Preview

Memphis Grizzlies
Last Years Record: 22-60
Key Losses: Mike Miller, Juan Carlos Navarro, Jason Collins (Minor Losses: Brian Cardinal, Andre Brown)
Key Additions: O.J. Mayo, Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur (Minor additions: Antoine Walker, Hamed Haddadi, Quinton Ross)

1. What significant moves were made during the offseason?
The Grizzlies revamped their roster in the offseason, completing what had been started with the trade of Pau Gasol during the season. On draft night, they traded away the last of the contributors from the squad that made 3 straight trips to the postseason when they sent Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal to Minnesota along with Jason Collins and the rights to Kevin Love in exchange for the rights to O.J. Mayo and the contracts of Antoine Walker, Marko Jaric and Greg Buckner. They also acquired Darrell Arthur in exchange for Donte Greene and a 2nd round pick.

Then they signed highly touted draft pick Marc Gasol to a contract to compete for the starting center position. They followed that up by signing Hamed Haddadi and Quinton Ross as well, to shore up the roster depth at some areas of need.

The biggest move that was made this offseason was the choice to allow Marc Iavaroni to remain as head coach of the team after rumors swirled about his possible departure. Ivy will get a second chance (as he should, IMO) to show that he can coach this young team to success.

2. What are the team's biggest strengths?
Youthful exuberance and determination. This team could achieve quite a bit more than is expected of them simply because they don't know any better. Top draft pick O.J. Mayo has been lauded for his drive to succeed and that attitude has visibly spread throughout the entire team. This collection of players doesn't intend to lay down for anyone, no matter what the odds against them might appear to be. In that way, they remind me a lot of the youthful team that arrived in Memphis a mere 7 years ago. I think that they will win more games than they probably should, just because they don't know any better.

3. What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
This team lacks experience. In all likelihood, only one starter will be older than 23 at the beginning of the season and the depth behind those starters isn't entirely tested either. The players with real experience (Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner) are on the downslope of their careers and are mostly viewed as contracts moreso than players to the majority of the fanbase. Fortunately, these young guys will get plenty of playing time to remedy that weakness, which everyone hopes will lead to some much-needed maturation. This franchise is on a 3-year plan to return to playoff levels, so talent and experience are the two key ingredients. They are working diligently on the first one, but the second will take some time.

4. What are the goals for this team?
Survival? If not that, then the goal is to display that they know what it takes to win games, even if they aren't quite good enough to do so consistently. They need to play much better defense than last year and to remain in games mentally for all 4 quarters. They have to show heart, since that has been missing from the team the last two miserable seasons. Mostly they need to show that they "get it" and are legitimate NBA talent capable of playing at the highest of levels.

5. Is there a real starting power forward on the roster?
They have 4 players capable of playing the position (Hakim Warrick, Antoine Walker, Darrell Arthur, Darko Milicic), but are any of them a legitimate answer? Warrick is a solid scorer/rebounder, but has limitations everywhere else. Walker spends too much time on the perimeter and not enough in the low post, not to mention that he is not the long-term answer for the team. Darrell Arthur is a rookie who shouldn't be expected to shoulder a tremendous role this year. Darko Milicic is a solid defender, but has issues with his offensive game and his confidence/mental approach is always a big question mark. I believe that the Grizzlies will look to trade either Warrick or Walker (or both), along with one of the young guards (likely Lowry or Crittenton) to acquire a legit PF at some point this season, perhaps a rental like Shawn Marion.

Predicted Record: 28-54

Check out previews for the rest of the NBA at CelticsBlog.com.

Previewing the Centers

By Joshua Coleman

Year after year since they arrived in Memphis, the Grizzlies have run out a ragtag group to man the pivot. Other than Lorenzen Wright, who performed admirably the majority of his time in his hometown, the other players have either been undersized (Stromile Swift, Alexander Johnson, Lawrence Roberts, Andre Brown) or undertalented (Jake Tsakalidis, Ike Austin, Cezary Trybanski) or both (Mike Batiste). So the fact that they will be trotting out not one, not two, but three legitimate 7-footers is practically a miracle of epic proportions. The additional thought that at least two of them are worthy rotational players and the third is a worthwhile project makes me all tingly inside.

The primary job of the center in the modern NBA is that of a rebounder and defensive presence. Other than the players of Yao Ming and Al Jefferson's offensive skill or Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard's athletic prowess, centers just aren't looked to as scorers nowadays. The Sameuel Dalembert's, Tyson Chandler's and Andrew Bogut's are the norm for the position now. When looking at Darko Milicic, Marc Gasol and Hamed Haddadi, it seems apparent that they favor the latter grouping more than the former. All three are known for their hard-nosed defense, physicality in the paint and solid rebounding. Let's take a closer look at each of them.

The Players:

Darko Milicic - As I said previously when talking about the Power Forwards, Darko isn't likely to ever reach the expectations that certain people had for him when he was drafted #2 overall in 2003, but that doesn't mean that he cannot be a quality NBA starter. After all, he's only 23 years old and has limited mileage on him considering that he barely played while in Detroit for two and a half seasons. Darko's strengths are in his positional defense and shot-blocking, although he did exhibit a deft passing touch last year from the high and low post positions. With the thumb on his shooting hand finally healed, we might get to see more of the player that posted 6 games of double-digit scoring in his first 15 appearances as a member of the Memphis Grizzlies. If he winds up splitting time between the PF and C positions, his offense will definitely need to be raised to a new level. The bigger question for The Dark One is where his confidence level is at, since that has been the biggest road block to greater success in his career. If he ever gets out of his own head, the rest of the league should be very worried.

Marc Gasol - Pau's little brother is no stranger to Memphis. After his performance in the Olympics, he's probably not a stranger to the rest of the NBA now either. If Grizzlies fans had any doubt, Marc proved that he wasn't his much maligned sibling by putting Chris Bosh squarely on his backside when Spain met Team USA. The reigning MVP of the ACB League in Spain comes across the pond with a chip on his shoulder after not garnering a scholarship offer from any big name schools after graduating high school here in Memphis. While he doesn't have the offensive skillset of Pau, he has already displayed that he is much tougher and more physical in the paint, along with growing far superior facial hair, which is important to me since I'm also bearded on occasion. If what he has shown in Spain translates well to the NBA, then Gasol could find himself with a substantial amount of playing time this year.

Hamed Haddadi - The final member of the international trio manning the pivot is the Iranian import who recently got clearance to enter the United States. Although there might be a few communication issues that have to be overcome (such as GM Chris Wallace accidentally giving Haddadi the equivalent of "the bird" by displaying a thumbs up in practice) and he should definitely be classified as a project, but as the saying goes, 7-footers don't grow on trees. He displayed plenty of raw ability in the Olympics, leading all players in rebounding and shot-blocking. His new teammates have been very complimentary of his skill level over the past week, giving hope that he might be able to contribute as soon as this season if the necessity should arise.

(And you thought that I couldn't do that without a camel joke.)

CONCLUSION: While the Grizzlies undoubtedly have more potential than ever before at the center position, it is anyone's guess how well the two newest additions will transition to the NBA and whether or not Darko will finally "get it". If the Grizzlies manage to get an average of 15-17 ppg, 13-15 rpg and 3-4 bpg each and every night from their centers, then it will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the team who will have the knowledge that they have a capable shot-blocker behind them on defense, as well as a solid rebounder and space eater. The Grizzlies will finally have some intimidators in the paint this season -- something that is long overdue.

Previewing the Power Forwards

By Joshua Coleman

With the Point Guards, there appears to be a defined rotation. For the Small Forwards, there is The Man and everyone else. Even for the Shooting Guards, we have a good idea of who is going to play and how much. But for the Power Forwards...the phrase "total crapshoot" comes to mind.

Hakim Warrick is the presumed starter, Darrell Arthur is the rookie, Antoine Walker is the mercurial veteran in a contract year and Darko Milicic is the enigma. Marc Iavaroni included Rudy Gay in that group when we interviewed him, but after this comment that Chris Herrington posted, I'm not very confident that we'll see #22 manning the 4 anytime soon:

“We’ve got a lot of [power] forwards on this team, and I’ve told them: If I have to play your position, something is wrong.”

Really, the PF position is one of the glass being both half full and half empty. Guys are either good on offense (Warrick and Walker) or on defense (Darko) or talented, but completely unproven and inexperienced (Arthur). No one appears to be a complete package in the mold of presumed starters Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. That means that any of those four players could garner significant playing time this season. That is both intriguing and maddening at the same time.

The Players:

Hakim Warrick - The Syracuse product is well known by Grizzlies fans as he enters the 4th year of his career. He has proven to be a skilled scorer with his solid mid-range game and impressive dunking ability. He's an average rebounder for his size, nabbing 7 boards a game as a starter last year and has extended his range out to 18 feet on his jumper. The areas of his game that prevent Hak from being a surefire starter in the NBA are his complete lack of passing skills and his poor defense. I know that I get accused of picking on him from time to time, but Javaris Crittenton played 61% fewer minutes than Hak last year (678 total minutes to 1754 minutes) and Critt only fell two assists shy of matching Warrick's total for the year, which was 53. I understand that PF's aren't expected to pass the ball as much as guards, but most starters at least average a dime per game. Even Darko Milicic averaged a higher number than that while playing with an injured thumb the majority of the season. For Hakim to remain a starter under the new defensive-minded coaching staff, he's going to have to start doing more than just scoring and rebounding.

Darrell Arthur - In assessing Arthur's game, he actually reminds me quite a bit of the aforementioned Hakim Warrick. An athletic forward who excels from mid-range and might not be quite big enough to bang with the more physical post players in the league. The one thing that separates him from Warrick so far is his shot-blocking, as he has averaged better than one per game through two years at Kansas. Enough has already been written and said about his blunder at the Rookie Transition program, so I won't waste any more in this space. I don't see DA making a big impact this year, but he might show enough to make a case as the future starting PF, which could make Hak trade bait by January/February.

Antoine Walker - What is there left to say about 'Toine at this point? He's a good rebounder and he loves to shoot -- especially from the perimeter. Next!

Ok, just kidding. There are two things that make me think that Walker could actually be an asset this year: money and more money. That's right, the Master of the Shimmy will make $9 million this year and knows that there won't be any teams that will pick up his option for next season, so he's basically in a contract year. That means that he will give more than the 60% effort (since I'm being generous) he gave the T'Pups last year. If that's the case, then he could turn out to be a valuable trade piece at the deadline. His range and his rebounding ability will also be assets if he still has anything left in the tank. The question is still what does he have left in the tank.

Darko Milicic - Finally, a power forward with some power in his game. If there is one thing I know about Darko from last year, it is this: He is better than he exhibited after he injured his thumb. I know that he will never be the player that Joe Dumars (and Chad Ford, God bless him) envisioned when he was selected #2 overall, but I definitely think that he can be a solid rotational player for a playoff contender. Last year he displayed the ability to be an effective defender, especially against low post titans like Tim Duncan and Yao Ming. In fact, I haven't seen anyone frustrate Duncan so much since Rasheed Wallace got inside his head during the first part of the 2005 Finals. Fans of the Mad Serbian have told me repeatedly that Darko is best utilized as a PF. It appears that we will now see how true that is. The Dark One will need to find something other than the lefty hook shot in his arsenal if he plans on surviving the season without being mercilessly booed. Shaving off the sparse mustache he sported for much of last year wouldn't hurt either.

CONCLUSION: I don't know if Warrick or Walker will be the starter at the beginning of the season, or if Darko will be the closer. Darrell Arthur showed lottery level talent in college, but still fell all the way to #28 in the draft for unexplained reasons. This motley crew undoubtedly makes up the weakest position for the Grizzlies this year, but if all of them will commit to defense and rebounding, then two of them might survive until training camp next year. In any case, I don't believe that any of them will enter this season with preconceived notions about how much playing time they will be given, nor should they. This position is in need of serious help as the Grizzlies move forward.

Previewing the Small Forwards

by Chip Crain

Yesterday we tackled the position with the most competition and controversy swirling around it -- the Point Guards. Today we move to the one position where there is absolutely no argument about who will be starting and garnering the highest share of playing time -- Small Forward.

Why is this blog titled Previewing the Small Forwards? Shouldn't it be Previewing the Small Forward? Like in singular not plural? I mean does anyone feel the Grizzlies have a 2nd Small Forward on the team?

That question sums up the issue at small forward on the Grizzlies. When Mike Miller was sent to Minnesota for O.J. Mayo, not only did Memphis sacrifice their starting SG, but also their backup SF. Mayo can do a lot of things, but playing the 3 isn't likely to be one of them.

So Memphis has a player capable of being a star in this league but nothing behind him worth mentioning (although I will mention the candidates later anyway). The best case scenario for the Grizzlies is Rudy to average 38-40 mpg and make the next step forward along the path to becoming a major player in this league. The worst case scenario is an early season injury that prevents him from playing most of the year.

Please pretend I never even wrote that last sentence.

The Players:

Rudy Gay - What more needs to be said about the best player left on the Grizzlies team after the purge that began in January? Rudy can do it all. He can score 20 ppg, he can run, he can jump over any player in the league and still has legitimate three point range on his shot. What hasn't Rudy shown he can do? Well ball control has always been a problem for Rudy. He has freakishly long arms that make it difficult to prevent smaller players from harassing his dribble. He has been suspect on defense but that could easily be more the result of questionable coaching since he seems to have the fundamentals down. His rebounding is weak for a small forward. Finally passing is a weakness in Rudy's game. It has been argued that there weren't many other options for Rudy to pass to last year but he did have other options. At least compared to this season. Rudy has become the focal point for defenses to stop. His passing has to improve to really achieve the greatness predicted for him. Great players improve those around him. The easiest way to accomplish that is to share the rock with your open teammates.

Quinton Ross - Quinton Ross was signed to a last second contract with the Grizzlies apparently to provide Rudy Gay at least minimal minutes of rest this year. Quinton has the reputation of being a defensive specialist on the perimeter. He can and has guarded everyone from Manu Ginobili to Allen Iverson to Tony Parker and has had success against all of them. Ross could see minutes as shooting guard as well but that is unlikely with the logjam of players available for Iavaroni. If Ross plays well then possibly that would give the Grizzlies more options in playing Rudy Gay at PF however.

Greg Buckner - If there is a player on this team that will become best friends with Kevin O'Neill it should be Greg Buckner. He is the epitome of a team player. Buckner is the type of player other players don't enjoy facing up against. He's scrappy and tough and can play defense. The problem with Buckner has always been the other side of the court. The 9 year veteran out of Clemson has never cracked 7 ppg and in today's game that simply isn't good enough. The days of the one dimensional player are gone. In limited minutes Buckner may be able to get by as strictly a defensive specialist but at 6-4 he will struggle in that role against taller SF's in the league. Buckner's main contribution may come on the practice court as he shows the young players what it takes in effort to make it in this league. Veteran leadership is needed on this team and possibly Buckner could be the guy to provide it.

Marko Jaric - I know. I put Marko down as a possibility at every position but I swear I am stopping now. At least I hope I am stopping now because this is about as far as I can go with Jaric. At 6-7 Marko has the size to compete with backup SF's in the league and with his 3 pt shooting and passing ability he could really open up lanes for the slashers and big men on the team. He won't ever be a physical player however so you can forget banging underneath or grabbing rebounds as skills he brings to the position. His foot speed is a liability in the backcourt but is adequate for the SF position as well.

Antoine Walker - Okay. Stop laughing. I realize that the Shimmy Shaker is 31 and hasn't played the 3 spot adequately since his Celtic days and even then was questionable as a 3 but we are only talking about 10-12 minutes most nights and against backup players. Walker can give people fits in that time frame. He has 3 pt range and can rebound extremely well. Sure his foot speed is weak but are there many players coming off the bench in the NBA that won't have just as much trouble stopping Toine as Toine will have stopping them? Memphis won't be running with Walker at the 3 very often but that isn't all bad with the half-court scorers the team possesses. When motivated Walker has the type of personality that can motivate teammates to play better and Walker has millions of reasons to be motivated this season. Expiring contracts can have that type of effect on players.

CONCLUSION: It really isn't that difficult to see what the Grizzlies need this season from Rudy. He has to lead the team in scoring and he has to be one of two players to lead the team in minutes played for the season. It would be great for the team if Rudy also raised his rebounding number to 6+ a game and his assists went up to about 3 a game. Neither of these numbers is unreasonable by the way. If Rudy goes down to injury, even for a few weeks, there is nothing the Grizzlies could do to replace his production. Imagine if the Cavs lost LeBron. He's that important to this team. The big difference for the future is that unlike the Cavs the cupboard isn't empty behind Rudy for long. Mayo, Conley and the rest of the baby Grizzlies will come to Rudy's rescue very soon. I just don't believe it will be this year.

Previewing the Point Guards:

by Chip Crain

This is the official kick off 3 Shades of Blue's pre-season coverage of your Memphis Grizzlies (like you came here to read our views on any other team anyway!).

Each day this week the guys at the 3SOB will cover a new position in detail to give our readers the most comprehensive and informative information on this website. We hope to have the most comprehensive coverage over the Internet but don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves just yet.

To begin the pre-season review it seemed appropriate to start at the most debated position on the team: point guard.

Memphis returns three players who consider themselves point guards from last season's team and none of the players have two full years of experience nor have reached their 23rd birthday yet (Conley, Lowry and Crittenton). So what do the Grizzlies do on draft night? They trade away their best returning performer and their draft pick who filled a need for a player who considers himself a point guard (Mayo). Included in the trade for Mayo is the old man of the group in 29 yr old Marko Jaric but is expected to be low in the rotation for playing time at the point. That's five players capable of playing the point out of an expected 13 roster players for Opening Night.

And people wonder how we never run out of topics to discuss over here.

The Players:

Mike Conley - Mike returns as the starting point guard on the team despite missing all or parts of 30+ games his rookie season due various injuries. In the 52 games Mike played in as a rookie he put up respectable numbers when compared to other point guards around the league's rookie numbers (Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Deron Williams to name a few). That isn't to say that Conley will match those players in the future. Rather that he has shown the potential to do so. Especially when you consider that he was as young or younger than any of the aforementioned players his rookie season. One major difference between Conley and the others has been his durability but he has looked much stronger this off-season than he did last season. That strength will be important if Conley plans on putting the injury reputation behind him.

Kyle Lowry - The former Wildcat has become a bulldog on the Grizzlies roster. Kyle lit the city on fire on opening night of his rookie campaign when he announced his presence with authority posting 6 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 steals in leading the Grizzlies 2nd half charge. Suddenly Kyle Lowry was the most exciting rookie in franchise history (which is pretty impressive considering Shane Battier, Shareef Abdur Rahim and Pau Gasol had preceded him). Just as suddenly he was gone for the year after breaking his wrist in the 10th game of the season. His sophomore season was a struggle as he fought for playing time behind veteran Damon Stoudamire and rookie Mike Conley. Kyle's wild play energizes the team on the defensive end but his lack of control hurts the team on the offensive side of the ball. Still Kyle produced at a rate similar to Conley in nearly the same amount of time on the court and usually with inferior players around him. While his game seems best suited for a backup role right now Lowry's grit and determination means that no one is going to take the starting spot without a fight.

O.J. Mayo - O.J. Mayo looks to supplant Kyle Lowry as the most exciting rookie acquisition in franchise history this year. O.J. Mayo has been preparing himself almost since birth to be an NBA star and anything short of brilliance will disappoint his legion of supporters around the city. Mayo looked impressive at times in summer league and practising against the US Olympic team but he has also looked sloppy with the ball and unable to really explode past defenders. Mayo lacks the blinding speed of Conley and other PG's but he compensates that with a good passing ability and nice size for a PG. Mayo is also a workaholic who is in excellent physical condition. While no rookie can prepare himself for life as an NBA player, Mayo should suffer less than most because of his excellent physical condition. Mayo is already considered the best defensive player in the Grizzlies backcourt and quite possibly the best defender on the team which is a trait not often associated with a score first PG. For now at least the plan appears to be to play Mayo at the shooting guard position this season where his clutch long range shooting and defense are needed more but one can't ignore the possibility with a trade of Mayo taking over the point during his career.

Javaris Crittenton - When JCrit arrived from LA after the Gasol trade he felt a wave of relief. He was now going to get the chance he was denied at the Lakers. It hasn't worked out exactly that way so far. Instead of being behind Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar, more typical PG's for Phil Jackson's triangle offense, JCritt found himself behind Conley and Lowry who were equally quick and young but had the inside tract with the coaches. JCritt has been working hard this summer on some perceived weaknesses in his game including the outside shot and better court vision. Javaris wants to play the point in the NBA but right now the minutes just don't seem to be there. JCritt will need to show he can play the SG position as well if he wants anything more than token minutes this season. One strong point for JCritt is his defense which should hold him in good standing with new coach Kevin O'Neill and his preferred pressure style of play.

Marko Jaric - Finally we reach the one PG on the team that has actual NBA experience in playoff games. Wait a minute. You mean Jaric has played 6 seasons in the NBA and never made the playoffs??? How can that be? Well first off he hasn't played on many good teams but he also hasn't made bad teams better by his presence. One thing Marco definitely does have is a smooth long distance shot and excellent height for a PG at 6-7. What he doesn't have is a scorer's mentality as he has never reached 10 ppg over a season. It is unknown right now if a team with OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay not to mention Hakim Warrick, Marc Gasol and Antoine Walker really needs another player looking for his shot. Defensively Jaric is considered decent but not excellent. His 6-7 frame does cause problems for opponents trying to get a shot off over him and his 1.4 spg over his career means he is smart enough to get into passing lanes despite a noticeable lack of foot speed for a point guard.

Conclusion: Memphis has a problem that most NBA teams dream about in having too many young, talented Point Guards but that doesn't mean it is not a serious problem. How the Grizzlies can manage to find playing time for all 5 players will be a nasty juggling act for Marc Iavaroni. Heading into camp it appears that Conley has the inside position as the starter with Lowry backing him up. Mayo and Jaric are expected to split time at the two guard while JCritt floats back and forth but nothing is written in stone. Memphis is willing to discuss a move for any of the potential PG's but isn't interested in helping another team out by giving one of their players away for nothing.

Right now JCritt and Lowry look to be in a dead heat to be the first player moved while Mayo is the only player among the group entrenched on the roster. Conley should be safe unless he can't separate himself from Lowry this year. Jaric may be here a while because of his bloated contract but could be moved to bring in someone with a larger contract (maybe Zach Randolph for example). JCritt needs to find a place to get some minutes either here after someone else is moved or somewhere else for himself.

The Grizzlies are okay at the point this season and should be heading toward strong by next season. They just need times to find their legs and learn the game. Making a clear decision on who is going to be the starter and who's going to be first off the bench should help the players understand their roles and what they need to improve on going forward.

I can't believe I wrote about the point guards and didn't mention Adriana Lima one single solitary time!

That didn't count there at the end did it?

Trade Talk

Since the Josh Smith offer sheet was matched by the Atlanta Hawks, it seems that most of the talk surrounding the Grizzlies making another acquisition this offseason has centered on potential trades. Plenty of names have been bandied about on the Grizzlies Fan Boards and on websites/news papers around the country. Let's take a look at who has already been mentioned and find a few more that might prove to be interesting.

Zach Randolph for Darko Milicic/??? - Ron Tillery mentioned him in a brief, one-line comment after the Hawks matched the offer sheet. It caused quite a stir among Grizzlies and Knicks fans when they saw it, but now that comment has been removed from the online piece where it originally appeared (which is why I don't see the point in linking to it).

My thoughts on Z-Bo are quite simple. He's a talented PF and he's a knucklehead. Yes, he puts up good stats, but he doesn't play well in a team concept, plays no defense and is a certifiable black hole on offense. He's a cancer -- and I don't throw that term around loosely. On top of all that, he has the exact same contract that Pau Gasol has, which the organization and its fanbase were so eager to get rid of. He's a glorified role player with a max-level contract, which means that the Grizzlies shouldn't consider him for any reason.

Matt Harpring/Jarron Collins for Darko Milicic - This one popped up in the Salt Lake Tribune column that we linked to earlier in the week, as Steve Luhm answered a reader's question about Darko's ability to fit in with the Jazz. This isn't even a real rumor, as Luhm even labels it a "hypothetical trade" in the column, but it is interesting. On the one hand, Harpring does give the Grizzlies that veteran backup SF that they desperately need behind Rudy Gay. On the other, Jarron Collins is known as "Collins the Lesser" among my circle of NBA friends. That's right, he's not even as good as his brother, Jason, who we fans had the pleasure of seeing last year. Not to mention that this would thrust Marc Gasol directly into the starting lineup when we don't have a clue as to how well he's going to adjust to the NBA. I don't have a problem with taking a calculated risk (Rudy for Shane, Mayo for Love, Miller for Gooden), but this seems to be a needless chance to take just to acquire a SF who will probably only be needed for 10-13 mpg this year. I think that Darko has more value than this trade.

Keith Bogans/Draft Pick for Javaris Crittenton - I've had a lot of back and forth with an Orlando Magic fan about this trade rumor. I think that it could be a win-win for both teams, but it all hinges on the draft pick. I don't think that a 2nd rounder is enough for Memphis to do the deal, but a protected 1st rounder probably would. I like Keith Bogans game a lot. He's a solid defender who can play the SG and SF positions off the bench. He's only 28, which means that he could still fit into the Three Year Plan if they re-sign him beyond the current deal. I'd much rather send them Kyle Lowry (PG only) in this deal than JCritt (combo guard capable), but getting another 1st rounder and thinning out the "young guard" group would probably prove to be worthwhile.

Al Harrington/Marco Belinelli for Antoine Walker/Hakim Warrick/Kyle Lowry - A Warriors fan who was high on Hak/Lowry sent this one to me the other day. Ummm....where do I sign? I'm not a huge fan of Harrington's SF game at the PF spot, but he has the same price tag as Walker for this year and twice the production. Belinelli (Summer League All-Star!) would be solid as a backup SG and might actually get some playing time in Memphis -- something he hasn't gotten much of in Oakland. They are both in the last year of their current contracts, so if they don't work out, then you don't have to keep them. Honestly, this deal feels like something you should have to wear a ski mask to pull off.

Reggie Evans/Willie Green for Hakim Warrick/Javaris Crittenton/Greg Buckner - The Grizzlies get a proven frontcourt presence in Evans, while the Sixers get some instant offense off the bench behind Elton Brand in Hak. Willie Green is a solid guard off the bench who started for Philly much of last year. Critt and Buckner would be quality depth for a team that has dreams of winning the Eastern Conference next year. Evans (28) and Green (27) are both young enough to qualify for the Three Year Plan, too.

Those are the ones that I'm aware of at the moment, although I'm hearing rumblings of Andrei Kirilenko being available, too. AK-47 is a tremendous talent and was always better as a PF than the SF role he has assumed since the arrival of Boozer/Okur. But, he also has the same max contract that Gasol and Randolph have, which means that it would be counter-productive to trade for him at this juncture. That's really too bad, since the combination of him with Darko/Marc in the frontcourt backing up Conley/Mayo/Lowry in the backcourt would display a fearsome level of defense. C'est la vie.

Be sure to either email us any rumors that you've heard of recently or just leave them in the comments.

Will the Grizzlies Find Leadership? - Part 2

The leaders who work most effectively, it seems to me, never say "I." And that's not because they have trained themselves not to say "I." They don't think "I." They think "we"; they think "team." They understand their job to be to make the team function. They accept responsibility and don't sidestep it, but "we" gets the credit. This is what creates trust, what enables you to get the task done.
Peter Drucker

In the first part of the blog I talked about the need for leadership on the team and how the major front office players are viewed as leaders in my eyes. It wasn't exactly complimentary but I did feel it was honest. In this part I am approaching leadership from the players perspective. While strong management leadership is needed on any team, it is ultimately the players on the court who have to take command. Dwight D. Eisenhower may have been calling the shots during WWII but it still took the soldiers in the field to win the war.

The most dangerous leadership myth is that leaders are born -- that there is a genetic factor to leadership. This myth asserts that people simply either have certain charismatic qualities or not. That's nonsense; in fact, the opposite is true. Leaders are made rather than born.
Warren G. Bennis

So how do you build leadership? Is it a skill you can develop like a hook shot? If so what lessons are the current Grizzlies learning to develop their capacity to be leaders?

This could be one of the largest roadblocks in developing leadership on the team. Most teams consider their point guard to be the team leader but that is difficult to expect right now on the Grizzlies. Kyle Lowry and Mike Conley share duties and both are inexperienced in the NBA. To be the type of leader who can set personal examples that player needs to be on the court when tough times are happening. By rotating players the message is being sent that the staff doesn't have confidence in one player to fill that role. Leaders can't be on the bench in crunch time. Until Memphis establishes who their point guard is and give him the ball for more than half the game leadership won't come from that position.

"Before you are a leader, success is all about growing yourself. When you become a leader, success is all about growing others."
Jack Welch

Rudy Gay has been described as the leader of the team in the past. However I question whether that was really the case. It seemed to me that Rudy Gay was still developing his own game more than elevating the game of those around him. That is not to say that Rudy can't become a leader on this team. He has the personality, the looks and the talent to gain the respect of his teammates. He now must learn how to take those talents to the next level and develop the team to a higher level around him.

Rudy Gay will enter training camp as clearly the best veteran player on the team but just being the best doesn't make you a leader on the team. Rudy is going to have to find a way to implement himself into that role both offensively and defensively. Rudy will need to become a better passer, a better on-court communicator and most importantly a better one on one defender. Players don't lead who don't pass, defend or guide the team. Rudy's individual skills may enable him to be the go-to shooter at the end of games but to reach the next level Rudy needs to make everyone on the team better not just himself. He is only 22 and just starting his 3rd season so there is still hope he can become that type of player.

"If a rhinoceros were to enter this restaurant now, there is no denying he would have great power here. But I should be the first to rise and assure him that he had no authority whatever."
G.K. Chesterton

The only player on the Grizzlies who has a history of being a leader on the court is Antoine Walker. That is a scary thought but it is also true. Antoine Walker was the emotional leader of a Boston Celtice team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals. He was not the leader on the Miami Heat team that won the NBA Championship.

Therein lies the potential and problem of Antoine Walker. At 31 Walker has NBA skills. He has a history of success in the league. He has the ring on his finger. What he doesn't have is respect. Walker is the proverbial bull in the china shop. He has been a whirlwind of controversy at many of his stops. When focused on playing basketball there are few players capable of doing things as well as Walker. The question has always been if basketball is the primary focus of his life.

This is likely Walker final stop if he doesn't show that dedication to the game. On this young team Walker could be a strong influence on the Grizzlies. One can only hope that Walker takes the opportunity to use that influence for the good of the team.

"The task of the leader is to get his people from where they are to where they have not been."
Henry Kissinger

Oventin J'Anthony Mayo has been described as a leader his entire basketball career. He leads by example, working harder than anyone else on the team. He leads by action, being more than willing to set up teammates for success as much wanting to take the shot himself. He leads by his mind, convincing himself that he can be the best by learning from those around him. He exhibits the traits people look for in a leader.

However, he is a 21 yr old rookie in the NBA. Will he be able to connect on a level that others will listen and follow him? O J Mayo was acquired on draft night for that express purpose. Wallace and most of the Grizzlies brass felt O J brought more of the innate ability to lead than Kevin Love or Mike Miller. They are willing to wait for him to grow into that role but they don't feel they will have to wait long. After all OJ Mayo is an adult. He may have just finished his freshman year at USC but he is more mature than many players in the league today (and older than some of his 'veteran' teammates as well). If there is anyone on the team who looks to be the 'natural' leader on the team it is Mayo.

Of course this team's on court leader may come from somewhere else. Darko Milicic, Marc Gasol, Darrell Arthur or even Javaris Crittenton could develop into the player that the team revolves around. One thing is for certain, the team needs to find their leader and fast.

Tsunami in Memphis

Wikipedia defines a tsunami as: a series of waves created when a body of water, such as an ocean, is rapidly displaced. Basically what occurs is that an earthquake causes the ocean floor to drop at a certain point, while raising it at another point, causing the temporary displacement of water. As a result of this, the water is sucked back from the shoreline to fill that point where there is a void, revealing areas that are normally completely submerged, only it then returns to the shore, because the water is only displaced temporarily. The incoming water is the tsunami, which destroys everything in its path and often arrives with little to no warning.

I can see people rolling their eyes right now. "First, he talks about astronomy and now we get a lesson on geology and oceanography?" Calm down -- I'll bring it back to the NBA, just you watch.

The Earthquake: Pau Gasol traded to the Los Angeles Lakers

When Gasol was traded, the shock wave was felt throughout the league. Everyone knew that something major had just occurred and that something had to be done as a result of it. Over the next few weeks, Phoenix trades for Shaq and Dallas trades for Kidd in an attempt to keep up. The Grizzlies hunker down to play out the rest of their season amid the chaos they helped to create.

The Water Recedes: The remaining Grizzlies show what they are made of.

When the water pulls back, it reveals portions of the shoreline that would otherwise be submerged, allowing you a better understanding of what was beneath the surface. In the case of some players, they responded positively, as Rudy, Conley, Kyle and Hakim all had productive 2nd halves. Others showed that they are still the same player that they have always been, which was the case for Mike Miller, Kwame Brown, Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins. This isn't to say that these are bad players, but there isn't a lot of untapped potential for them to draw on, as there was for the younger players. There are still a few unknowns at this point in Javaris Crittenton and Darko Milicic, but the franchise got a good read on the team overall. This provided the Grizzlies with valuable information that they needed going into the offseason with 2 first round picks and a substantial amount of cap space.


The Water Crests: Draft Night 2008

When Chris Wallace made the two trades on draft night, netting O.J. Mayo and Darrell Arthur, the organization did everything in its power to restore hope to a fanbase desperate for a reason to continue believing in this team. Rather than taking the "safe approach" of drafting Kevin Love and Chris Douglas-Roberts, he took a chance on greater potential, which netted him Mayo and Arthur. At this point, the water has reached maximum stored energy. Now the team is left to release that energy upon the rest of the league.


The Tsunami: Playoff Success

I don't expect it to happen overnight -- or even in the next 2 seasons -- but I do expect it to happen sooner than many might have considered. With another good draft and a smart signing or two, the Grizzlies could release all that stored energy and potential upon the league with the same fury that the Hornets displayed this postseason, making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. I look to what New Orleans and Portland have been able to do by collecting young talent in the draft and making timely signings of solid veterans, while not grossly overpaying for glorified role players. This is the model that Memphis should be adhering to, as they implement their plan to return to the playoffs, not just as a mere participant, but as a team to be reckoned with -- a team that other teams do not want to face in the first round. At that point, they will be an unstoppable force. They will have achieved tsunami status.

Summer League Review - The Players

Yesterday I took a look at the Rookie team as whole without focusing too hard on any one players performance. Today I am going to look at the individuals.

PLAYERS:
O J Mayo - 18.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.6 apg 1.4 spg, 4.8 topg

OJ was the star of the summer league team and made the highlight plays that got the Grizzlies on Sportscenter but he also shot 40.7% from the field (48% from three point range). Outside of a thunderous dunk in the first game and a 69 ft heave in the 4th game he really wasn't that spectacular. He got people fired up with some nice plays like an up and under reverse layup but overall he didn't really stand out as much as hoped for the #3 player taken in the draft. WHen fresh OJ showed that he was far better than most people in the league but you expect that. OJ also played two positions and that obviously had an effect on his efficiency.

Darrell Arthur - 13.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 50.0 FG%, 0.8 bpg, 1.6 topg

Darrell came to the Grizzlies as the player who fell the most on draft night. He was supposed to have a chip on his shoulder about the snub. Instead his reputation as being a player who has a questionable heart seemed to be true. 3.8 rebounds a game was one fewer than Javaris Crittenton and nearly three fewer than PJ Tucker. Arthur did shoot a high percentage from both the field and the three point line (50%) but often seemed to be more in the background than imposing himself on the action. When playing hard he was impressive. It just didn't appear that he had the motor running every night and that was before the fatigue factor was supposed to set in. In many ways Arthur was more impressive when the rest of the team looked tired.

Mike Conley - 11.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.3 spg, 2.67 topg

Conley was out of sorts at times playing with O J Mayo who also fancies himself a PG. It seemed Conley was more interested in allowing OJ to be the star then he was in establishing himself as an up and coming player in the league. He did shoot 45.8% from the field and 44.4% from the arc but he didn't seem to take advantage of his speed to force defenses to react to him. Missing the last two games seems like a smart idea. He had a tough year last season and there is no reason to expose Conley to a potential injury do to a ridiculous schedule.

P J Tucker - 10.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.8 topg

If one player played himself into an invitation to training camp it had to be P J Tucker. PJ led the team in rebounding despite his diminutive size (supposedly 6-5). Basically a power player Tucker gets by on hustle and intelligence. He has high skills for an interior player but at his size less skilled players should have no problem defending him anyway. Tucker still manages to score by simply outworking his opponents. His 65.2% FG shooting also shows that he doesn't force too many shots, a trait that would serve him well to remember if he is invited to the camp.

Ebi Ere - 8.2 ppg, 48.3 FG%, 42.9 3pt%, 1.0 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.6 spg

Ere reminded me of the Richard Gere role in 'An Office and a Gentleman' when asked why he wouldn't quit screamed "I got no place to go!" Ere's Australian team disbanded this year and he has no place to go. An excellent shooter from the perimeter, Ere showed little else in the summer league. He worked on defense but failed to come up with turnovers. If the team decides to go with a pure outside shooter (along the lines of Eddie House but cheaper) then Ere may have a chance to come to training camp.

Javaris Crittenton - 8.0 ppg, 4.0 apg, 4.8 rpg, 38.5 FG%, 4.0 topg

If there was a player who needed to prove he had a future on this team it was Javaris Crittenton. The jury is still out on whether or not he achieved that. Crittenton led the Grizzlies in assists, was second on the team in rebounding, 2nd on the team in minutes played and 6th in scoring to go with some pretty good defense at the SF position. JCritt played 3 different roles on the team and if his shooting was better would have been the feel good story of the summer. Unfortunately he didn't shoot the ball well. He didn't even shoot adequately. Rumors have swirled that JCritt is still on the block and they seem justified right now.

Steve Burtt, Jr. - 6.3 ppg, 64.7 FG%, 33.3 3pt%, 2.3 apg, 0.8 spg

The son of a former NBA player with the same name, Burtt showed that he can shoot the ball. He is the looks like the typical shoot first PG but his 2.3 apg looks pretty good when you consider he only played 13 minutes a game. Burtt's play may have earned him a second look from other NBA teams but with the depth in the backcourt the Grizzlies have it is unlikely he will be invited back to training camp.

Alan Anderson - 4.4 ppg, 23.8 FG%, 20.0 3pt%, 1.6 rpg, 0.8 spg

Anderson is a good defender who can't shoot a lick. That type of one sided approach to the game isn't good enough in the NBA anymore (if it ever was). Anderson has a nice way about his game but it just isn't productive enough at this level and this level isn't the NBA.

Malick Badiane - 4.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 33.3 FG%, 0.2 bpg

The book on Badiane was that he needs more time to develop. That was made perfectly clear in the summer league. One of only 6 players to play in every game Badiane's performance started adequate and deteriorated from there. His offensive game is terrible and he doesn't play good enough defense especially blocking shots as his wingspan would imply he should. Badiane also had more fouls than rebounds. That is never a good sign.

Brian Butch - 2.7 ppg, 1.0 spg, 1.0 rpg 33.3 FG%

A last second fill in for injured Brett Petway, Butch showed exactly why he was available as a last second fill in. Not much to say about Butch besides good luck in Europe or the NBDL.

Aaron Pettway - 2.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 0,5 bpg

The reigning NBDL Slam Dunk Champion has amazing hops, plays great defense and can't score at all. A peculiar combination of talents. Pettway looks like he will be back to defend his slam dunk title next year. The Grizzlies love his defense but loathe his offense and like I said about Anderson, you need to play on both sides of the court in the NBA.

David Simon - 1.0 pgg, 1.3 rpg, 0.2 bpg

That isn't bad production considering he only played 9.5 mpg. If you move that to a per 40 minutes average you get 4 ppg, 5.2 rpg and 1 block. On second thought maybe that is pretty lousy and that is why he didn't play much.

Marcus Dove - 0.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg

What can I say. He didn't play much and that was probably a good thing.

Summer League Review - The Team

Well now that the Rookie league team has completed play I suppose we can look back and try to discern what we learned about our players and the team in general.

It is hard to be too critical of rookie play since the team had two a days on Tuesday and Wednesday, flew to Las Vegas on Thursday and then played four straight games and 5 games in 6 days. Fatigue had to be an issue for everyone on the team. However the few bright spots the team did exhibit were quite bright. Defensively the team held their first opponent to a mere 35.9% shooting for the game. Their second opponent didn't fair much better only hitting 40% of their attempts. The impact of Kevin O'Neill and the defensive focus was readily apparent. The Grizzlies shot respectable as a team those first two games as well.

Then fatigue set in and the defense sagged while the shots stopped falling. It is ridiculous to assume this shouldn't have happened also. Yes these are professional athletes but when you are facing teams who haven't played as many games as you have in such a short period of time fatigue is the enemy you can't defend against. Overall I wasn't displeased with the team's performance.

The team looked about as good as you would expect under the circumstances they were thrown into. The better players on the team didn't play every game including Mike Conley missing the last two games. It seemed the team had found out everything they wanted to know about the veterans on the team and the last games were more about preparing the drafted rookies for the rigors of the NBA and trying to find out if anyone else on the roster was worth a second look.

There is no truth to the rumor, as far as we can find out, that Heisley requested that the team play their 5 games in 6 days so that he wouldn't have to pay for extra days in the hotel.

Do the Grizzlies Have 'Big' Problems

It wasn't so long ago that the over-loaded front line drew as much criticism from fans as the current over-loaded point guard position does now. Remember when Memphis had Pau Gasol, Stromile Swift, Bo Outlaw, Lorenzen Wright, Shane Battier, James Posey and Theron Smith all on the roster? Bonzi and Miller were really forwards who were forced into guard roles by the shear number of front line players.

Now Memphis has a dirth of frontline players and those they have are not experienced. Rudy Gay is entering his 3rd season and started a grand total of 124 games in his career. Hakim is beginning his 4th season and started a grand total of 75 games. Darko is the most experienced returning player and in his 5 years in the league he has started a grand total of 83 games in his career. Sure Antoine Walker has experience but he'll be 32 this coming season and hasn't player well since winning his ring in Miami three seasons ago. Does anyone feel confident relying on the 'shimmy shaker' to help educate our young players in how to be professionals?

Then we come to the primary backups at PF and C. Two rookies. One, Darrell Arthur, fell in the draft to 27th because of questionable health and heart. No there is nothing physically wrong with Darrell's heart. It just seems he doesn't bring it to the game every night. The other, Marc Gasol, was a fat kid who liked to take 3 pt shots when he left Memphis to return to Spain. This past season he was in the top 5 of the Spanish league in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Only one other player in the Spanish leagues accomplished this feat...Pops Mensah Bonsu.

WHO? Pops was on the GW team that shocked the world in the NCAA tournament a few years ago. Nice effort guy and he has a high basketball IQ but hardly someone I would say is going to be an impact player in the NBA. Doesn't that seem to trivialize Gasol's accomplishment a bit?

So the Grizzlies have a combined 283 games started total among all of their front line players not named Walker. That is a little bit more than three seasons of games (246). Antoine does have 707 career starts but only 16 in the last 2 years.

So do the Grizzlie have a big man problem? Perhaps they do. If Arthur and Gasol don't perform, if Darko doesn't improve, if Walker comes in out of shape and with a negative attitude, if Rudy doesn't continue rounding out a complete game to go with his fantastic offensive one and Warrick continues being a black hole on both sides of the court (can't defend anyone and won't pass the ball) then Memphis could be in big trouble.

The Case for Not Trading a Point Guard

There has been a lot of discussion among Grizzlies fans about the apparent logjam at Point Guard on the team and how Memphis needs to make a move immediately to address this problem. I disagree and for some simple reasons.

First off Conley is only 20 yrs old and has started a grand total of 46 games in the NBA. That is not exactly a ringing endorsement to give him the keys to the franchise. Sure his statistics almost mirror Tony Parker's when he was a rookie and are actually superior to such prominent PG's as Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash as rookies but that doesn't mean you can stamp the future All-Star label on Mike just yet. Lowry doesn't have much more experience after only playing 10 games his rookie season. Right now it appears Conley will be the superior PG in the NBA to some people but he hasn't shown that on the court yet. There is no reason to rush the decision before someone has clearly won the job.

OJ Mayo is a dynamic player who has stated that he feels his best position is PG. That doesn't mean he is right and from what we have seen so far that is simply not the case. Mayo is a scorer who struggles against quick PG's and makes bad decisions at times when pressured with the ball. He may develop into an excellent PG at some point but right now he is a turnover waiting to happen.

Javaris Crittenton is similiar to OJ Mayo without the outside shot. He has excellent size to be a PG (compared to the dimunitive Conley and Lowry) but his ability to control the ball and run the offense hasn't develop yet. He also doesn't appear to NBA level vision when driving in the lane. A PG can always drive in the lane and shoot but to be a truly effective PG you need to get into the lane and then find the open man as the defense collapses. So far I haven't seen Crittenton capable of making that play.

Jaric can play PG, SG and SF. He is very versatile in that respect. He came over playing PG but last season he was almost exclusively a SG and at 6-7 he has decent size to play SF. Frankly with his lack of foot speed I feel more comfortable playing Jaric as a SG/SF than at the point. Jaric will bring experience and knowledge to the young guards on the team and that is important. His role is clearly more mentor than player at this point.

What's more, Lowry and Conley give the Grizzlies two different PG skill sets that most teams will struggle matching up against. Right now JCritt and Mayo don't appear to take care of the ball well enough to run the point but both can defend well at the SG and allow the Grizzlies to add more playmaking ability to the backcourt.

This doesn't even take into account the serious problem the Grizzlies have had lately keeping Point Guards healthy. In 2005 Damon blew his Patello Tendon out. In 2006 Kyle Lowry broke his thumb and missed the remained of the season. Last year Mike Conley hurt his shoulder and missed a total of 30 games. It isn't like the Grizzlies haven't had a big need for strong backups at the point lately.

At some point in the future I expect at least one of the backcourt players to be moved to fil a hole in another part of the team but that definitely doesn't mean they have to make a move right now.

The 'Toine Factor

While there has been a ton of hours logged discussing the various aspects of the draft night trade that saw O.J. Mayo and Kevin Love change franchises, most of it has focused on those two players and sharpshooter Mike Miller while ignoring the other pieces in the transaction. Jason Collins should be a solid backup for the T'Wolves, while Brian Cardinal fills the need for a "token white guy" at the end of the bench. Just kidding BC -- you know we love you and think that you'll make a great coach after your playing career is over. For Memphis, Greg Buckner will supply solid defense on the perimeter and Marko Jaric will bring one of the hottest women on the planet to our fair city. What's that? Jaric can play 3 positions? Bonus!!!

The one guy that seems to have slipped through the cracks as nothing more than a throw-in salary that will likely be unceremoniously bought out and left to the winds of free agency is Antoine Devon Walker.

You remember this guy, right? Talented, easy-going, fun-loving.....and in shape. Now just think about what could happen if he showed up in Memphis with that same mindset, that same hunger and desire to win. A tantalizing dream, isn't it? Not only could he start at PF, but he could also be a veteran influence who knows how to win on the biggest of stages. That would be quite a coup for a team full of young players that need someone who has already been through the pains and struggles of climbing the mountain. I'm not saying that 'Toine will turn into a shining example of leadership overnight, but if he wants to play in the NBA beyond this season, then he's going to have to prove to the league that he hasn't become satisfied since winning a title with the Miami Heat in 2006.

Of course, perhaps he has reached the top of the mountain and feels that there is nothing left to accomplish. Even people who know him well have hinted that Walker isn't focused on playing and just seems to be going through the motions -- coasting, as it were.

The reason I bring this up is because Walker's mindset and approach to this season will probably determine who truly got the better end of the trade. Minnesota received two starters (Miller and Love) and one contributing role player (Collins). Memphis got one starter (Mayo), two contributing role players (Buckner and Jaric) and one big question mark (Walker). If that question mark becomes an exclamation point, then the Grizzlies can confidently say that they "won" the trade. It's your move 'Toine -- will it be a Shimmy or a slow dance?

O.J. Mayo -- Guiding Star or Solar Flare?

Guiding star (Polaris): Polaris more commonly known as the North(ern) Star or the Pole Star, and sometimes known as the Lodestar, is the brightest star in the constellation Ursa Minor. It is very close to the north celestial pole making it the current northern pole star. (Wikipedia)

Nearly everyone in the Memphis area has seen the North Star at some point or another in their lifetime. It is the brightest star you can see at night and your attention is drawn to it, almost as if by a tractor beam. It directs you north, even when other stars appear to be dim and hazy, as they change position from night to night. It is the star that the mariners of old used to guide them as they set out on voyages to circle the globe.

It is interesting to note that there is no South(ern) Star. That means that there is no star that will guide you down -- only up. That's how it is in the NBA as well. Real stars lead you upwards, out of the muck and the mire, towards greater things. They don't drag you down into the mud -- they pull you out of it.


Solar flare: A flare is defined as a sudden, rapid, and intense variation in brightness.

Solar flares are rarely seen by the naked eye, but they are very common and have a negligible effect on our weather here on Earth. A flare is violent, but brief -- more of a hiccup than a seizure. Flares vary in their occurrence, as they are very inconsistent, and therefore hard to track unless you are willing to observe the sun relentlessly.

The NBA has had its share of solar flares, as well. Most teams have had "the next great thing" pass through their organization at some point or another. That player might be better served as a complementary piece to a "real star" or he could have other issues that lead him to never fulfill his potential, such as attitude or injuries. Some of these flares focus on individual goals of money and fame (leading to infamy in many cases), rather than team success. Needless to say, there are a lot more flares than stars in the NBA each and every year.

What will O.J. Mayo be in his tenure with the Memphis Grizzlies? He has the talent and potential to be one of the greatest players to ever wear an NBA uniform. He has been profiled in basketball magazines and websites since before junior high school and has been successful (to some degree or another) everywhere he has played. He could be the player that lifts the Memphis Grizzlies out of the backwoods swamp they currently inhabit.


Or, he could play out his rookie contract in Memphis with one eye on the bigger markets of New York, Los Angeles and Miami and bolt when the opportunity presents itself. He could be a franchise's savior or he could be a franchise's coffin nail. make no mistake about it -- trading away the consistency of Kevin Love for the promise of O.J. Mayo is the biggest risk/reward play that Memphis could afford to make in this draft (because there is no way they were trading Rudy Gay for Michael Beasley). This move will likely define the Memphis Grizzlies organization for the next decade.

One last note regarding astronomy: The North Star is actually a cluster of three stars, not just one. Given the success of Boston, San Antonio, Phoenix and others with "The Big Three" in recent seasons, it does give fans hope with the presence of Mike Conley and Rudy Gay flanking Mayo on the roster. As always, we'll have to wait and see what happens to make the final determination. I hope for the sake of Grizzlies fans that our newest star shines bright and true.

Reflecting on 4 hours of sleep

I was in the media room last night and when the Love pick was announced most of the media types were sort of ho-hum about it. A lot like the city of Memphis in that regard. Another safe pick and a solid player but nothing to get excited about.

Donte Greene's pick was interesting mostly because the Grizzlies didn't take home town boy CDR. Not a lot of people of the media knew much about Donte Greene and no one thought it was really a great pick. Why didn't they draft the University of Memphis star? Don't the Grizzlies want any fans in the stands? Maybe he's a better player but he won't bring the fans to the game.

I was on the other side of the coin. I thought Love wasn't just the smart pick but the right pick. The kid oozes leadership and class, he was going to be the dirty work player Memphis had never had and I was very excited about his prospect of success in Memphis. Maybe not All-Star success but on-court success for the team. Donte Greene was a brilliant pick in that they filled a need at back up SF with a talented young player that could grow behind Rudy and be used in a fast lineup with Rudy at times.

We waited for the Grizzlies too come out and face the music. And we waited. And we waited. I left after 10:00 pm because I work at a real job and nothing had been announced but their was a quiet buzz going around. Was something up? Why hadn't the Grizzlies come out to discuss the Greene pick? Are they working on something? Are they going to waste another 2nd rd pick to get a player to excite the locals? No one knew what was up but the general feeling was that something was happening. Of course the general feeling was it would be insignificant and there was some grumbling about deadlines and all.

Obviously I should have stayed.

About 10 minutes after getting home I heard that Greene was probably gone and that Darrell Arthur looked to be coming to Memphis. Then the damn broke with Ford's release of the Mayo trade. Suddenly I was wide awake again. Why didn't I stay at the Forum.

So what does this mean for the Grizzlies?

I think the Mayo trade shows Memphis is serious about rebuilding this franchise in a different manner than previous teams had been built but they paid a high cost for that reorganization. Memphis traded away the best rebounder the team has ever had and Arthur, while a solid all-around player, won't be able to do the things off the glass that Mayo can. Mike Miller was never going to be more than he is, which isn't bad but certainly not something that will shake up the fans.

I also hopes this puts to bed the idea that Heisley is only about cutting costs. Buying out Antoine Walker is not cheap. Jaric and Buckner add another year of his contracts that wouldn't exist with Collins, Cardinal and Miller.

It is expensive. It is dangerous. It was the right thing to do for a town that had forgotten the Grizzlies existed.

Blogging at the Forum

Well tonight I finally got to see what the media sees all the time when covering the Grizzlies. I was got to see the inside of the Don Poier Media Center. It was a very interesting and informative experience. And like any rookie put on the big stage I started off with a fumble. When we were called into the media room to hear Chris Wallace and Marc Iavaroni's comments about the drafting of Kevin Love I forget my pen and failed to hit the record button on my recorder. Boy did I feel stupid.

Of course no one is interested in what I thought of the media center or how I made a fool of myself. Well some people may like reading that but most people want to know about the draft picks and what the Grizzlies thought about their night.

First off Chris Wallace wasn't high fiving anyone when he came into the media center. He was rather subdued in fact. He spoke matter of factly about the selection of Love and what he means for the team. Wallace feels Memphis has a player that is going to be a great rebounder, an excellent outlet passer and who has a lot to learn about playing defense in the NBA. While he did say Love has to learn a lot he also made a very intriguing comment which really stuck in my head. Wallace said that Love is ready to function in a team defense philosophy. He will be where he is supposed to be on defense and not just 50% of the time but every time. That says a lot about Love's basketball intelligence and also a lot about what he felt about some of the people who were supposed to be playing defense for the Grizzlies last season.

Next Wallace left to return to the draft room as Marc Iavaroni took the mike. Iavaroni was clearly excited about the selection of Love. He talked about his strength of charecter, his desire to be great and his intelligence. Marc is clearly thrilled to be having a leader like Kevin Love with the team.

That isn't to say that Wallace isn't excited. Wallace just looked like he had more work to do. Judging from his selection of Donte Green at 28 I think Wallace knew someone was going to slide in the draft and he wanted to make sure the Grizzlies were ready to pounce when that opportunity came up. Wallace also dealt with the trade rumors about attempting to move up to get Beasley and why Memphis wasn't interested. Miami wasn't asking for Mike Miller plus the pick and point guard. They wanted Rudy Gay! Beasley may be a star in the making but there is no way Memphis should give up that much for the right to find out.

My personal feelings are that Love was the smart pick and the right pick. Love will be contributing right away. He has a learning curve of course but he won't be the type of player who hurts the team when he is on the court. Love will immediately improve the team's pick and roll plays as he can set a mean pick and hit the perimeter shot if his man tries to cover the cutter. He will be the best rebounder Memphis has ever had and will ignite the running game with his outlet passes. There may be other players who have better careers but there won't be many and Memphis couldn't afford to miss with this pick. He should team up well with Rudy Gay and Mike Miller to make the team stronger both physically and mentally.

Donte Green is nothing short of a steal. No one expected, myself included, to find a player with this much potential that late in the draft. Green will step right into the hole that was Casey Jacobsen last season and should be a huge improvement immediately. Unlike Love however Green will need much more maturing to reach his full potential. He has a long way to go on defense (don't all Syracuse players) and his shot selection needs to improve but he should have time to do that backing up Rudy Gay. Most importantly he will need to get stronger.

Speaking of stronger, Mike Conley has developed guns. He is ripped. I got a chance to talk to him as the draft was starting and Conley admitted that he had been lifting a lot of weights while taking a class at Ohio State. I asked Mike about his newfound muscles and he said that he worked for a week with Mike Curtis, the strength and conditioning coach and also Kevin O'Neill. That means Mike realizes he needs to improve his strength and defense and is working on it. He also has been playing phone tag with shooting coach Mark Price and is planning on getting together with Mark to work on his shot in Atlanta during the summer. Mike also admitted being a little concerned about all the trade rumors about him but was very grateful to hear Chris Wallace say Conley was not being discussed in a trade. He likes being with the Grizzlies and doesn't want to go anywhere.

Kyle Lowry was there and he told me that he was planning on spending most of the summer in Philadelphia but he too is going to be working on his shot with Mark Price. Kyle didn't get the trade assurance that Conley did and he said he understands this. It's a business and it wasn't harder this year than it was last year hearing the Grizzlies wanted Conley in the draft. I got the impression that Kyle isn't going to let these things bother him and he will come to camp ready to win the starting job. He just seems to have the attitude that he is using these things as motivation.

Last season started with a front line of Gasol, Gay and Milicic. Backing that line up was Stromile Swift, Casey Jacobsen and Hakim Warrick. Next season it looks to be Gay, Love and Milicic with Donte Green, Hakim Warrick and Marc Gasol backing up. That is a huge improvement on paper. Now it will be wait and see if the paper translates onto the court.

ADDENDUM: Learned another lesson tonight. Don't leave before the Grizzlies tell you the night is over. I left before the news of the Mayo-Love trade and the Greene-Arthur deal was announced. Instead of being in the meeting with the team hearing how they feel about the deal I am lying in bed wondering why I thought it was so important to get home and get some sleep! I guess this shows you are never to old to stop learning.

Career Choice: College vs Internationals

A lot of people have been claiming that the international game is a better feeder system to the NBA than the NCAA lately. I must admit it does seem to be a compelling argument when you consider that three of the top rookies this season came from international backgrounds (Navarro, Scola and Yi). Throw on top of that Jamario Moon who played internationally before making it in the NBA and there is serious support for the allegation that the international game, with their focus on team play and fundamentals, should be the place kids go while waiting to be allowed access to the NBA. And this is not taking into account the OJ Mayo situation where college players are being paid under the table.

So why don't kids chose the international game with their professional seasons and salary over college?

The cynics might say their handlers have no pull overseas and so they push them toward the college ranks where they can continue to exert their influence (and continue to get 'gifts' from agents). Some might say that the kids don't want to leave their homes and families to be alone in the old world. There is validity to both arguments.

But is that reason enough that no high school players have tried to go overseas? Imagine you are a talented player and you don’t have the grades to get accepted to a major college. Would you rather attend a junior college hoping to get your grades up and transfer or spend a year in Barcelona getting paid and living the good life? In my opinion the answer seems simple.

Of course, to me the language barrier could be overcome easily and I have no dreams of making the NBA as a player so my opinion isn't really germaine. Things are different overseas and it is quite likely those differences and not pay-offs or the love of their family and friends that keeps Americans at home. The European basketball game is college length so players don't play 35 minutes a game most nights, the players are more mature and as a rookie in the league you would not be playing more than 20 minutes at most. Would that exposure enable you to reach the NBA in a year or two? How would a 19 yr old rookie who doesn't speak the local language compete with older men familiar with the lifestyle, the language and the system? Consider how hard it was for Navarro to break into the lineup in Memphis when he couldn't speak English and Navarro was a former MVP overseas. Wouldn't it be even more difficult for a young man who knows no one, can't speak the language and is away from hoome for the 1st time?

It's a risk and a big one at that.

This assumes the European leagues would want want such a player. Right now the NBA and FIBA has a cordial relationship. Would that continue if European teams started to aggressively court US high school players for their leagues? It was rumored that an Italian league team offered LeBron James a contract as a high school junior to play his senior year overseas so it may already be happening. How long would the NBA maintain the age limit if players started darting to Europe instead of the NCAA after high school? Do the European leagues want players who would want to be paid a nice salary and yet have cheap buyouts every year of the contract? Do Europeans want to be a feeder league for the NBA?

Probably not but the Euroleagues might be interested in acquiring American players earlier. Players turn professional as early as 16 in Europe. Would a team be interested in signing Americans onto their junior rosters when they can get 3-4 years to develop the players? What would happen if that 8th grader who promised to sign a letter of intent to USC suddenly decided to play for FC Barcelona instead?

If a US high school athlete was seriously considering a professional basketball career at a young age he might be tempted to play overseas. What are the pros of going overseas? The 3 pt line is between the NBA mark and the college line so you would have a better idea about how that player could shoot the three in the NBA. He would be playing a more physical game which would prepare him for the NBA life much better. Playing a professional season would train him physically more than college would. The competition would be higher over all. The maturity of the player playing oversees would be higher in general from the experience.

The cons are that he may not make it overseas and then he doesn't have an education, even at the high school level. What would he do then? The trapezoid lane and other rule differences would alter the players development in ways unimaginable. He wouldn't be as familiar to NBA coaches and scouts which could hamper his draft status. He could get into trouble being a teenager on his own. It happens here with college players in their teens. What would happen to a teenager in Europe in similiar situations?

I suppose that some player will take the challenge and bolt to Europe instead of college some day and depending on how he develops more may follow but for now I doubt the international game will be viewed as a realistic alternative for most players no matter how many OJ Mayo's are found taking money.

Unless the NCAA starts penalizing the players instead of the school for accepting money for their efforts. Then all bets are off.

Coaching Carousel

File this one away under the "General NBA" category, but since Zack broached the subject last night, I think it is fair game for me to delve into.

As teams fall one-by-one and leave the postseason landscape, the coaches get handed pink slips too. Today, the Suns fired Mike D'Antoni and the Mavericks fired Avery Johnson. There are rumors that the Raptors are going to let Sam Mitchell go as well. First, let me look at whether or not these coaches are truly at fault for their teams' shortcomings.

Sam Mitchell is a defense-first, grind-it-out coach, which doesn't gel with the "Suns North of the Border" scheme that Colangelo wants to build. Making the playoffs last year is what saved his job. However, this year's first round exit will be enough to allow Colangelo to justify showing him the door, especially with the news that Mike D'Antoni is now available. I'm not sure where a guy like Mitchell fits in, so it might be a few years before he gets another head coaching job in the NBA.

Mike D'Antoni is not at fault for what happened in Phoenix this season (or last season), but he has been tabbed as the scapegoat. Age, injuries and Steve Kerr are all more at fault than the coach who was the darling of the league the past few seasons for his free-wheelin', frenetic pace that brought casual fans back in droves. The advancing age of Nash, Hill and Shaq slowed everything down. The injury to Hill left the Suns without anyone capable of playing great inside/outside defense on Ginobili and Diaw. The deal that brought Shaq to the desert was the ultimate "Do or Die" move for Steve Kerr. Guess what -- they died. To echo the thoughts from a recent post by the guys at Hardwood Paroxysm: The Suns didn't get the break they needed this year or last year. That's not D'Antoni's fault. D'Antoni would be a good fit in Toronto, given that Colangelo loves his style of play, but I believe that the Tom Skerrit lookalike could go to Chicago and have the Bulls at contender status in as little as two seasons.

Avery Johnson. The Little General. The blame for the Mavericks playoff struggles go beyond the carcass of the player formerly known as Jason Kidd. After all, Kidd wasn't on the roster last year when they got bounced in the first round by the Warriors or the year before that when they let championship dreams slip through their fingers against the Miami Heat. Johnson's playoff record is a well-publicized 23-24, which is a fine effort for a coach that takes over a team that is making the transition from lottery to playoffs to contender. But Johnson took over a team that was already a title contender and racked up that record, including two first round exits in the last two postseasons. I think the players deserve a lot of blame (as they always do, since they are the ones actually out on the floor), but in this case, the coach is as much at fault as they are, which means his firing was justified, in this blogger's opinion. His future could include the New York Knicks.

Now, with that said, there has been a lot of talk about the apparently uncertain future of the Memphis Grizzlies own coach, Marc Iavaroni. In fact, there are those on the Grizzlies Messageboard -- as well as this very blog -- that say Ivy should be fired if Avery Johnson would be willing to come to Memphis. I cannot stress just how much I disagree with this opinion on so many levels. First, there is the already mentioned lack of postseason success. Next, there is the fact that the Mavs players went ahead and held a practice after Johnson had already canceled it, which is nothing short of a mutinous action. He lost his team's respect, period. Finally, there is the very obvious question of why AJ would want to come to Memphis to begin with? Is there one viable reason? Anyone? Bueller? Didn't think so. Let's put this ridiculous "not-even-developed-enough-to-qualify-as-a-rumor" idea to bed.

Marc Iavaroni might not be safe just yet, but after putting up with the Larry Brown and Scott Skiles rumors emanating from New York writers, do we really need the team's own fans coming up with their own far-fetched stories about improbable scenarios? Give Ivy a more talented team to coach and you might be amazed at how much better a coach he becomes. After all, even Phil Jackson has missed the playoffs before. So have Pat Riley, Jerry Sloan, Larry Brown and Gregg Popovich, just for the record. How about if we all exhibit the tiniest bit of patience with a young team, a young coach and a new GM? Or is that too much to ask?

Update: Some helpful info from Chip about some pretty good coaches who had limited success as rookie head coaches.

Mike D'Antoni:
1st season as Head Coach-Denver 14-36
1st season as Head Coach-Phoenix 21-40

Byron Scott:
1st season as Head Coach-New Jersey 26-56
1st season as Head Coach-New Orleans 18-64

Jerry Sloan:
1st season as Head Coach-Chicago 30-52
1st season as Head Coach-Utah 40-25