In the wake of the 2018–19 U.S.-China tariff hikes, there has been a significant shift in U.S. supply chains, with Mexico emerging as the largest supplier of U.S. imports, surpassing China. This shift has been attributed in part to Mexico gaining a cost advantage over China following the U.S tariffs on China.]]>
The emergence and rapid growth of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services represent a novel financial development in the consumer credit landscape, reflecting evolving payment preferences and changes in point-of-sale financing arrangements. While BNPL providers offer a menu of credit products typically at the point of sale (such as a range of short- and longer-term installment loans in addition to the signature "pay in 4" plans), the nascent literature on BNPL has centered on "pay in 4" products, focusing on user characteristics and usage consequences.]]>
Mortgage servicing right (MSR) valuations decrease when mortgage default and prepayment rates increase, as is generally the case when the economy enters into recession. To estimate how large these MSR valuation declines could be for the banking sector in a severe economic downturn, we project the potential increase in default and prepayment rates under the supervisory stress test models and scenarios for mortgages serviced by large banks.]]>
Geopolitical risk has emerged as a central driver of global financial markets, with episodes such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and recent conflicts in the Middle East triggering sharp movements in asset prices and increases in market volatility. But not all industries are exposed to such shocks in the same way (Caldara and Iacoviello 2022; Culver, Niepmann, and Shen 2025).]]>
China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 marked the beginning of one of the most consequential episodes in the history of global trade. The subsequent surge in Chinese exports–often referred to as the "China Shock"–has been widely associated with large adjustments in production patterns, labor markets, and trade balances across the global economy (Autor et al. 2016; Pierce and Schott 2016).]]>
This article examines press releases from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board) in the 1960s and 1970s related to changes in the discount rate through the lens of monetary policy communications. As argued by Yellen (2013), we start from the premise that communications have a "distinct and special role in monetary policymaking."]]>
From November 2025 to March 2026, the "Computer Software and Accessories" category of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index made an unprecedented contribution to the rise in core and core goods inflation. Figure 1 shows the historical average since 2000 for core and core goods inflation while excluding software (blue bars) along with the contribution of software (gray bars).]]>
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) system offers comprehensive data on U.S. cross-border securities holdings and transactions, facilitating a detailed understanding of U.S. capital flows. For users new to TIC data, a key fact shapes how to use these statistics: holdings data have been collected for a longer historical period and are measured with greater precision than transactions data.]]>
Labor market indicators such as employment growth and the unemployment rate are commonly used to assess the cyclical position of the economy (NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee). However, deciphering trend from cycle in these indicators is notoriously difficult and can be especially delicate when underlying trends in the economy shift rapidly.]]>
Trade finance encompasses a range of financial instruments and services designed to facilitate international trade. U.S. banks are key providers of these services. This note draws on several regulatory data sources to show that trade finance supports a sizeable share of international trade, is highly concentrated in large U.S. banks, and has declined over time.]]>
Open-end mutual funds play a critical role in financial markets and remain major holders of key securities including corporate, Treasury, and municipal bonds. Past stress episodes have exposed the fragility of liquidity provision by corporate bond mutual funds, which can experience large investor outflows that must be met on demand despite holding relatively illiquid assets.]]>
Money market funds (MMFs) play a critical role in supplying short-term funding to corporations, banks, and governments. While existing research has made substantial progress in understanding MMF portfolio choices and investor flows, little is known about the composition of MMFs' institutional investors.]]>
Historic swings in rents during the pandemic have driven increased interest in research on the financial impacts of rising rents on households. However, compared to homeowners with a mortgage, data on renters are scarce, limiting researchers' ability to analyze the 28 percent of adults who rent their home.]]>
Buy Here Pay Here (BHPH) auto dealers occupy a unique position in the auto market by serving as both the seller and financier of vehicles to their customers. This contrasts with traditional auto dealers, who connect buyers to financing options from third-party banks, credit unions, or auto finance companies, including the captive financing arms of auto manufacturers.]]>
Outstanding mortgage debt in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector totaled $6 trillion at the end of 2024 including owner-occupied and nonowner-occupied real estate, multifamily mortgages, and loans backed by acquisition, development, and construction projects. Banks hold half of all CRE debt, with regional and small institutions (under $100 billion in assets) collectively accounting for a larger share of this lending than their larger counterparts with assets over $100 billion.]]>