Meet the Researchers
Paul E. Soto
Principal Economist
Industrial Output Section
Research and Statistics
Education
- Ph.D., Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2018
- M.Sc., Economics, Barcelona School of Economics, 2013
- B.A., Applied Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley, 2011
Current Research Topics
- Financial Economics, Financial Intermediation, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning
Principal Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2025 - presentSenior Economist
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
2022 - 2025Adjunct Professor
University of Maryland, Robert H. Smith School of Business
2019 - 2023Senior Financial Economist
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
2021 - 2022Financial Economist
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
2018 - 2021
- Stressed Banks? Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review
Puriya Abbassi, Rajkamal Iyer, José-Luis Peydró, and Paul E. Soto
Management Science (2025)
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.01714
See also » FRB Working Paper (2023) - Generative AI at the Crossroads: Light Bulb, Dynamo, or Microscope?
Martin Neil Baily, David M. Byrne, Aidan T. Kane, and Paul E. Soto
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2025)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.053 - Total Recall? Evaluating the Macroeconomic Knowledge of Large Language Models
Leland D. Crane, Akhil Karra, and Paul E. Soto
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2025)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.044 - Research in Commotion: Measuring AI Research and Development through Conference Call Transcripts
Paul E. Soto
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2025)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.011 - Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace
Leland D. Crane, Michael Green, and Paul E. Soto
FEDS Notes (2025)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3724 - Inside the Boardroom: Evidence from the Board Structure and Meeting Minutes of Community Banks
Rosalind L. Bennett, Manju Puri, and Paul E. Soto
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.085 - Trademarks in Banking
Ryuichiro Izumi, Antonis Kotidis, and Paul E. Soto
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.044 - Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis
Tomaz Cajner, Leland D. Crane, Christopher Kurz, Norman Morin, Paul E. Soto, and Betsy Vrankovich
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.026 - Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation
Leland D. Crane, Emily Green, Molly Harnish, Will McClennan, Paul E. Soto, Betsy Vrankovich, and Jacob Williams
Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2024)
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.020 - Measurement and Effects of Supply Chain Bottlenecks Using Natural Language Processing
Paul E. Soto
FEDS Notes (2023)
https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3257 - Capital controls, domestic macroprudential policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy
Andrea Fabiani, Martha López Piñeros, José-Luis Peydró, and Paul E. Soto
Journal of International Economics (2022)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103677 - Capital Controls, Corporate Debt and Real Effects
Andrea Fabiani, Martha López Piñeros, José-Luis Peydró, and Paul E. Soto
Economics Working Papers (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) (2021) - Breaking the Word Bank: Measurement and Effects of Bank Level Uncertainty
Paul E. Soto
Journal of Financial Services Research (2021)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-020-00338-5
Awards
- 2024
Federal Reserve Board
Division Director Award
- 2021
University of Maryland, College Park
Distinguished Teaching Award
- 2021
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Individual STAR Award
- 2020
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Mission Award
- 2020
University of Maryland, College Park
Distinguished Teaching Award
- 2020
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Individual STAR Award
- 2019
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Individual STAR Award
Referee
- Economic Letters
- Financial Management
- International Journal of Forecasting
- IMF Economic Review
- Journal of Corporate Finance
- Journal of Econometrics
- Journal of Financial Services Research
- Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
Last Update:
March 23, 2026