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Trade and Investment in the Era of Hyperglobalization

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The Palgrave Handbook of Development Economics

Abstract

The last 70 years have seen important changes in the volume, direction and nature of international trade. In the era of managed globalization, established at the end of the World War II, the global economy became progressively more integrated and trade accounted for continuously rising shares of world output, albeit with international rules and norms designed to allow governments the time and space to manage their integration in line with a broad set of national policy goals. Things changed as capital became more mobile, governments relinquished policy space and the governance of international markets was increasingly left to large multinational firms. This chapter examines the relationship between trade, industrialization and economic development in such a hyperglobalized world economy. It discusses critically conventional trade models and their empirical support and presents a careful examination of more heterodox perspectives. The chapter further analyses the pros and cons of foreign direct investment (FDI) and participation in global value chains (GVCs), with particular attention to the obstacles to diversification and upgrading in these chains and the unequal economic relations that they generate. In this context, it stresses the ongoing importance for developing countries of manufacturing activities, including for export, even in an era of rising services and calls for a pragmatic policy approach and for an active developmental state able to set priorities, manage unavoidable trade-offs, and deal with distributional challenges and conflicts of interest that could hinder a desirable pattern of integration.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Gunnar Myrdal is a representative spokesperson, “Contrary to what the equilibrium theory of international trade would seem to suggest, the play of market forces does not work towards equality in the remuneration of factors of production and, consequently, in incomes” (Myrdal 1956: 47). Ragnar Nurkse, Raúl Prebisch and others were part of this same cannon to emerge after the Second World War. It is worth noting that whereas later representatives in this tradition were usually portrayed as dissidents, these original thinkers were operating in a world where even a liberal Chicago economist such as Jacob Viner accepted “There are so few free traders in the present-day world, no one pays any attention to their views and no person in authority anywhere advocates free trade” Viner 1947).

  2. 2.

    Much like the post-war pattern of international trade, a good deal of FDI occurs among the already advanced economies, often consisting of two-way flows in the same industry. Such intra-industry FDI is either a reflection of competition between firms seeking to access each other’s home market for final products by creating regional centres of production and marketing or an extension of the increasingly fine degree of international specialisation in intermediate products that has been the major impetus for the growth of intra-industry trade (Rayment 1983).

  3. 3.

    This analysis also provides the basis for understanding why much of the growth of trade after the end of the Second World War took the form of intra-industry trade among advanced economies, that is, the simultaneous import and export of a given product or by a given industry. Such trade arises from an ever-finer division of labour among countries with similar industrial structures and levels of per capita income, which turns less on factor endowments and more on “ephemeral factors” which are embodied in a firm’s constantly shifting cost curve (Rayment 1983: 21).

  4. 4.

    Tracing the evolution of trade in intermediates is not an easy task, but it almost certainly stretches back well into the nineteenth century. Rayment (1983), for example, has noted that international trade in bicycle components and parts of motor cars was already flourishing in Europe before 1914, and recounts how British textile and clothing manufactures at the height of the industrial revolution began to shift labour-intensive sectors of the production process to countries in the European mainland in response to domestic labour shortages and mounting wage pressure. By the 1950s, when national trade data reporting systems of mature industrial countries began to produce the type of disaggregated data required for some tentative estimation, components of machinery accounted for nearly 15 per cent of their manufacturing exports. But this figure grew very rapidly in the 1960s and 1970s, largely thanks to the growth of intra-industry trade inside the Western European trading bloc.

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  1. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA

    Elissa Braunstein

  2. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD, Geneva, Switzerland

    Piergiuseppe Fortunato & Richard Kozul-Wright

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  3. Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

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Braunstein, E., Fortunato, P., Kozul-Wright, R. (2019). Trade and Investment in the Era of Hyperglobalization. In: Nissanke, M., Ocampo, J.A. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Development Economics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14000-7_21

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