Sense of Events

The first fence for the West is the occasional ter...

2016-06-20T01:33:35.473-05:00

The first fence for the West is the occasional terror attack. But we're allowed to live our lives (the corn) so we don't worry about these occasional attacks. The second fence is one large one-off attack that results in 1000's of deaths, but we're still mostly being allowed to live our lives (corn), plus the elites keep reminding us how none of this has anything to do with Islam so there's nothing we can do, so we may as well just go on enjoying this nice corn. The third fence is when attacks escalate steeply in frequency and scope, but still the broad mass of us are being allowed to live our lives. The last fence is many hundreds of thousands of Muslim migrants are being welcomed into our countries by our government when ISIS made an unequivocal threat to do precisely this, but we could still hypothetically deport and close the border if necessary, as unthinkable as that is (the reassuring open gate), so we go for the corn, merrily living our lives. But then a radical Leftist is elected who proceeds to ramp up migrant arrivals to a million+ per year. The corn rots in the sun as security theater continues even while the Muslim insurgency spreads from city to city with attack after attack.

The first fence for the West is the occasional ter...

2016-06-20T01:13:14.254-05:00

The first fence for the West is the occasional terror attack. But we're allowed to live our lives (the corn) so we don't worry about these occasional attacks.

The second fence is one large one-off attack that results in 1000's of deaths, but we're still mostly being allowed to live our lives (corn), plus the elites keep reminding us how none of this has anything to do with Islam so there's nothing we can do, so we may as well just go on enjoying this nice corn.

The third fence is when attacks escalate steeply in frequency and scope, but still the broad mass of us are being allowed to live our lives.

The last fence is many hundreds of thousands of Muslim migrants are being welcomed into our countries by our governments despite the Islamic State's unequivocal threat to do precisely this, but we could still hypothetically deport and close the border if necessary, as unthinkable as that is (the reassuring open gate), so we go for the corn, merrily living our lives.

But then a radical Leftist is elected who proceeds to ramp up migrant arrivals to a million+ per year. The corn rots in the sun as security theater continues even while the Muslim insurgency spreads from city to city with attack after attack.

Steve Friedman, based on the news reporting at the...

2016-02-03T14:05:36.008-06:00

Steve Friedman, based on the news reporting at the time I wrote the post, there were only six coin tosses reported at all, all of which were credited to Hillary as wins. Maybe there were 100 tosses and Hillary won six more than Sanders, but if so it was not being reported as of the date of the post. In fact, the WaPo first reported only on February 2 at 3:08 PM - and that as an update - that there were other tosses than the six concerned and that Sanders won some of them and that "The ratio of Clinton to Sanders wins was closer to 50-50." But we still do not know the total number of tosses, which is probability comps would certainly matter.

"It's six independent events with a 50% probability each, no matter how you describe it." Which is explicitly what I wrote, too.

Thanks for reading!

Your math here is incorrect. The chance of a part...

2016-02-03T13:50:27.145-06:00

Your math here is incorrect.

The chance of a particular side winning six coin flips in a row is 1/2^6, or 1/64, or 1.5625%. It doesn't matter who calls the coin toss, or if they happen in different locations, or whether someone chooses heads or tails, or if you split it up into two sequences of three, or whatever. It's six independent events with a 50% probability each, no matter how you describe it.

However, your facts are also wrong. As far as anyone can accurately report, it is completely false that Clinton won 6 out of 6 coin tosses. Sanders won 6 out of 7 reported coin tosses, with an unknown amount of unreported coin tosses. And those coin tosses made essentially no difference to the final result.

The chances of Sanders winning 6/7 coin tosses is 7/128 or 5.47%. The chances of him winning at least 6/7 (meaning he wins 6/7 or 7/7) is 8/128 or 6.25%. Or if you're wondering the chances that one side or the other would win at least 6/7, you would double the probability to 12.5%.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/hillary-clinton-coin-flip-iowa-bernie-sanders/index.html

Some maths were just beyond my comprehension (grou...

2016-02-02T12:46:00.121-06:00

Some maths were just beyond my comprehension (group theory, anyone), but Statistics was the one set that really made my head hurt. Could never tell when a statistical test was valid.

I agree 99%, the 1% is that there's no where t...

2015-12-04T08:23:11.196-06:00

I agree 99%, the 1% is that there's no where to emigrate to. I moved with my wife and 3 small kids to Costa Rica about a year and a half ago. It's not a perfect solution, but the freedom from surveillance is refreshing, and the bureaucracy is prevalent, but lazy past a certain point.
My business does well here (solar power), and now we're looking to expand to Chile, where there's even more relative freedom, and free enterprise is rampant.
Again, nothing's perfect, but I refuse to let my boys grow up to be cannon fodder for a failed empire, or to have us all slaughtered for refusing to get in the FEMA trucks.

We do kinda feel like Sarah Conner at the end of the Terminator, moving down to Mexico to raise her son in a manner that he would grow up to lead the resistance. I hope it doesn't come to that.

Look who has come to celebrate your Bar Mitzvah!

2014-06-16T11:15:15.882-05:00

Look who has come to celebrate your Bar Mitzvah!

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the s...

2014-06-16T10:42:18.212-05:00

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

Thanks for good article

2014-03-27T05:39:48.383-05:00

Thanks for good article

Thank you for this, Donald Sensing. I'd not r...

2014-03-18T15:06:20.663-05:00

Thank you for this, Donald Sensing. I'd not read this when you initially posted it (found in it Vanderleun's comments just today 03.18.2014). Though brought up in the staunch Calvinist tradition of the Dutch CRC, I have always been troubled by the concept of predestination, and all that this concept entails. I think you have exceptionally well stated thoughts I have previously been unable to articulate in my attempts to walk closer to God.

Hello! Anybody in there?

2014-02-04T17:06:20.422-06:00

Hello! Anybody in there?

"Remind me. What's our defense policy ag...

2014-02-03T20:30:22.707-06:00

"Remind me. What's our defense policy again?"

The URL for the article about Baptist birthrates i...

2013-09-23T15:21:02.174-05:00

The URL for the article about Baptist birthrates is now this.

http://www.russellmoore.com/2006/09/07/baptist-born-baptist-bred/

What is it? It is neat.

2013-07-27T18:33:59.082-05:00

What is it? It is neat.

It might be a defect on the lens cause by a speck ...

2013-07-09T21:16:31.434-05:00

It might be a defect on the lens cause by a speck of cosmic dust... maybe a slight impact on the lens.. explaining the light spot and a crack across the horizontal.

For what it's worth, the land mass on the left...

2013-07-09T11:35:50.920-05:00

For what it's worth, the land mass on the left is Cuba, looking east to west.

As for the object, my guess (& that's all it is) would be something similar to our old KH system spy satellites, on edge.

??

The black "divot" in the top of the dark...

2013-07-05T23:49:44.086-05:00

The black "divot" in the top of the dark blue atmosphere below the unknown object is suggestive that it is an imaging artifact, some marker that NASA puts at the top of its images.

Or else the drive of this spacecraft leaves a visible wake in the atmosphere.

I suspect it is an elf or a spite or a similar upp...

2013-07-05T23:39:33.822-05:00

I suspect it is an elf or a spite or a similar upper atmosphere type of lighting.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper-atmospheric_lightning

C'mon, let me have the keys! It's my turn ...

2013-05-31T19:16:54.210-05:00

C'mon, let me have the keys! It's my turn to drive! You promised me, Barry, early last November! C'mon, Barry, it's not fair!

"Gerald Ford and a young Norman Schwarzkopf g...

2013-05-21T11:35:26.703-05:00

"Gerald Ford and a young Norman Schwarzkopf greet a soggy Rose Garden gathering."

...the marine was busy at his feet keeping him fro...

2013-05-21T09:30:13.905-05:00

...the marine was busy at his feet keeping him from becoming tangled in the microphone cord.

The original Bumbleshoot was to be replaced years ...

2013-05-21T09:28:12.406-05:00

The original Bumbleshoot was to be replaced years later by the perfected Obumbelshoot.

@P2 - I remember Chevy Chase making fun of Ford

2013-05-20T12:00:21.430-05:00

@P2 - I remember Chevy Chase making fun of Ford

Never seen an umbrella held so incredibly level!

2013-05-20T11:57:59.544-05:00

Never seen an umbrella held so incredibly level!

Actually, I remember now that the phrase is "...

2013-05-20T09:36:34.300-05:00

Actually, I remember now that the phrase is "Chim chim-a-ney". Besides, the nice major bears a resemblance to Dick Van Dyke.